According to Woofun AI, BTC is undergoing a severe test of support levels, and sustained selling pressure has significantly weakened recent rebound momentum.
Jesse Marley, a senior portfolio manager at digital asset investment firm Hilbert Group, pointed out that if the price effectively breaks below $75,500, the bullish setup established from the summer lows will face the risk of structural damage. This warning is based on a market analysis report released by Hilbert Group on October 26, which emphasized that five consecutive days of declines and a 5.4% weekly drop are both signals of intensifying pressure. From a price structure perspective, BTC was near $84,800 earlier this week, then fell back to the $79,200 range, dragged down by stock market sell-offs and rising oil prices. Marley defined the $78,500 to $79,500 area as the current support zone, which is testing the key trendline that has maintained the recent consolidation trend; if this defense line is lost, $75,500 will become the decisive threshold, and once breached, the lows of the previous trading range will come back into focus. Conversely, if the price returns above $81,400, it is expected to return to the consolidation range; after breaking through the two major resistance levels at $85,000 and $87,500, rebound momentum may strengthen, with targets pointing directly to the $95,000 to $98,000 range. It is worth noting that these levels are only references for price movement and do not constitute a promise of inevitable gains or losses.
Capital flows show divergent characteristics. Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that this week, U.S. spot BTC ETF (IBIT.US) net inflows were approximately $442 million. Although there was a single-day outflow of $635 million on Thursday, overall it still shows that investor capital flows reversed during the sell-off. However, the options market reflects strong demand for downside protection. The DVol index on the Deribit platform rose to 38, and the implied volatility of put options with a Delta of 5 reached 44%, higher than the 38% for call options of the same maturity.
The macroeconomic environment is also exerting pressure. Geopolitical concerns pushed Brent crude oil prices to nearly $117 per barrel at one point, before falling back below $114. In tech stocks, Nvidia (NVDA.US) fell about 8% this week, and Meta (META.US) fell 9%, further suppressing risk asset performance. Short-term movement depends on whether BTC can hold key support and overcome resistance levels. The market is currently at a critical point in the battle between bulls and bears. ETF inflows have provided some buffer, but the difference in implied volatility between options and macroeconomic bearish factors indicate that downside risks have not been eliminated. If the $75,500 defense line holds firm, the market is expected to gradually repair; otherwise, if it breaks below this level, the previously accumulated technical bearish signals may be fully released, triggering a deeper correction. This is another key moment of directional choice for the market since the summer lows.
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