Pre-market market movements. 1. On Monday, October 12, before the US market open, the three major US stock index futures were mixed. As of press time, Dow futures were up 0.15%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.08%, and Nasdaq futures were down 0.13%. 2. As of press time, Germany's DAX index was up 0.79%, the UK's FTSE 100 was up 0.85%, France's CAC 40 was up 0.40%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 was up 0.58%. 3. As of press time, WTI crude oil was up 1.51% at $93.24 per barrel. Brent crude was up 1.34% at $106.12 per barrel.
Earnings Season Set to Launch in Full Force as Middle East and Russia-Ukraine Tensions Loom, US CPI Drives Rate Hike Expectations, Can "AI Faith" Overcome Everything?
The highly anticipated third-quarter US earnings season is about to kick off in full. Wall Street financial giants including BlackRock and JPMorgan will be among the first to report results. Meanwhile, the September US CPI inflation data set for a major release on Wednesday will directly influence the market's pricing trajectory for Federal Reserve rate hikes and serve as a key gauge for whether the Fed will continue raising rates in October. Geopolitical tensions driven by the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts continue to weigh on sentiment. This means global equity markets will almost simultaneously face a triple stress test: the pace of AI computing resource-related profit realization, rising financing costs amid climbing US Treasury yields, and energy inflation under persistent geopolitical pressure.
Treasury Yields Hold at Elevated Levels, Market Awaits CPI and Waller This Week: Bets Point to Continued Rate Hikes in December
After the Fed unanimously approved a rate hike last month, Treasury yields jumped sharply; last week they were largely unchanged, hovering near 24-year highs. In the new week, investors are waiting for two things: fresh data and hints from Fed Chair Kevin Waller about how quickly the central bank will continue raising rates. Current positioning is amplifying a risk: if September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) comes in hotter than expected, it could reignite the selloff by pressuring the Fed toward more aggressive rate hikes. Waller will participate in a discussion on Thursday at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. Two other closely watched officials — Fed Governor Waller and Cleveland Fed President Hammack — will also speak.
Global Bond Selloff "Raises Rates for Central Banks": Yields Surge Past 4% to Highest Since 2000, Rate Hike Expectations for Eight Major Economies Drop Nearly 200 Basis Points
Global bond markets are driving up financing costs on their own, taking on part of the tightening burden from central banks, which could reduce the number of benchmark rate hikes needed to suppress inflation. After weeks of selling, bond yields have surged to multi-year highs. Even without further action from policymakers, financial conditions have tightened significantly, creating a degree of economic restraint — precisely what central banks hoped to achieve by raising policy rates. Compiled data shows traders have consequently lowered rate hike expectations; since mid-September, the cumulative rate hike priced into interest rate swap contracts across eight major economies has fallen by nearly 200 basis points.
Trump's "Energy Ceasefire" Fails to Cap Oil Price Rally, Former JPMorgan Strategist Calls It "Another Fraud"
Trump announced a Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire," concentrating the latest divergence among Wall Street analysts on one key question: can US presidential diplomacy translate into real improvements in energy supply, thereby easing the inflation and surging Treasury yield pressures weighing on global tech asset valuations? Former JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic questioned the credibility of the ceasefire. Kolanovic expressed doubt about Trump's claim that the two countries have agreed to stop attacking energy infrastructure, saying "this weekend, everyone saw burning tankers, oil fields, and airports. This energy ceasefire looks like another fraud." However, Wall Street strategist Tom Lee, who has accurately predicted market moves multiple times since 2025, emphasized that if the energy ceasefire materializes, it would help ease the ongoing impact of high oil prices on consumers, the economy, and the stock market.
"Big Short" Burry Shifts to Nasdaq and Semiconductor ETF Put Options, Warns of Peak Within Nine Months
Investor Michael Burry, who predicted the 2008 financial crisis by accurately identifying major flaws in the US subprime mortgage market, has concentrated most of his bearish bets into put options on the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), expecting the market could peak within the next nine months. In his latest Substack blog post published last Sunday, Burry said he has converted most of his previous short positions into options, with Nasdaq 100 and VanEck Semiconductor ETF put options now constituting nearly all of his short exposure. He stated: "I think we are within 0 to 9 months of a major top." He added that as major indices break to new highs, the final months of the bull market could be highly volatile.
Individual Stock News: US Memory and Optical Communication Stocks Fall Broadly in Pre-Market Trading
On Monday before the US market open, as of press time, SK Hynix (SKHY.US) and Micron Technology (MU.US) fell over 2%, SanDisk (SNDK.US) and Seagate Technology (STX.US) dropped nearly 2%, and Western Digital (WDC.US) declined over 2%. In optical communications, Coherent (COHR.US) fell over 2%, while Credo Technology (CRDO.US), Astera Labs (ALAB.US), and Marvell Technology (MRVL.US) each dropped nearly 2%, and Corning (GLW.US) declined over 1%.
Q3 Net Profit May Rise 65%! TSMC Eyes Sixth Straight Record Quarter as AI Infrastructure Boom Continues
Driven by a technology industry infrastructure spending boom, the world's largest advanced AI chip manufacturer TSMC (TSM.US) is expected to report a sixth consecutive quarter of record earnings. Analysts say demand remains strong for TSMC's AI chip manufacturing capacity and its advanced chip packaging technology CoWoS. According to LSEG SmartEstimate, which compiled estimates from 16 analysts, TSMC is expected to report a 65% surge in third-quarter net profit to NT$746.3 billion ($23.4 billion) on Thursday. The estimate gives more weight to analysts with consistently accurate forecasts. If net profit exceeds NT$706.56 billion, it would mark a record quarterly net profit for TSMC and represent the 11th consecutive quarter of profit growth. Last Thursday, TSMC reported third-quarter revenue growth of 50% year-over-year, beating market expectations and hitting a record high.
Musk Showcases Chipmaking and Robotaxi Fleet "AI Ambitions": Terafab to Test 10 Chip Designs a Year, Cybercab Fleet Expands 8x Monthly Toward Dallas
Tesla (TSLA.US) and SpaceX (SPCX.US) CEO Elon Musk released two announcements over the weekend pointing in the same direction — bringing the most critical supply chain and operational functions back in-house. At the X Takeover event at the Austin, Texas Gigafactory, he described the goal of the Terafab R&D facility to over 2,000 vehicle owners and investors: produce and test approximately 10 chip designs per year. On the same day, Ashok Elluswamy, who heads AI software at Tesla, provided progress on another front on X — the Cybercab fleet in Austin has surpassed 300 vehicles, expanding 8x in 30 days, with "Dallas coming soon." What both efforts share is that they are being scrutinized on the balance between "speed" and "certainty." However, the market's response was lukewarm. As of press time, Tesla was up just 0.07% in Monday pre-market trading.
IREN's Mysterious Customer Revealed? Anthropic Reportedly Signs Multi-Year Cloud Deal
The Information published an analysis report on the economics of Anthropic's data center leases, detailing how the AI lab is pushing its cloud partners to accelerate new data center construction. According to AI Weekly citing the report: "People familiar with the matter revealed that Anthropic has also signed an undisclosed multi-year cloud agreement with IREN." In August, IREN disclosed an agreement with a leading AI lab but did not reveal the customer's name. If Anthropic joins the customer list, it would significantly boost IREN, potentially strengthening its position as an AI cloud infrastructure provider amid surging computing demand. As of press time, IREN was up nearly 4% in Monday pre-market trading.
Key Economic Data and Event Preview
At 00:10 Beijing time the next day, 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech.
Earnings Preview
Tuesday pre-market: JPMorgan (JPM.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.US), Wells Fargo (WFC.US), Citigroup (C.US), UnitedHealth (UNH.US).
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