Copper prices have moderated their upward trajectory, with market attention turning to US-Iran negotiations. This weekly report on the new energy industry chain assesses the overall market situation. The copper market is characterized by persistently tight concentrate supply, although domestic smelting output has shown high year-on-year growth. Overseas hydrometallurgical copper operations may face constraints due to sulfuric acid availability. Data from sources including the National Bureau of Statistics indicate that newly installed wind power capacity has increased year-on-year, while newly installed photovoltaic capacity has declined. Automobile production and sales, along with real estate data, have decreased compared to the previous year, whereas home appliance output has increased. Domestic inventories declined on a weekly basis, aligning with typical seasonal demand patterns. In the short term, the copper market is influenced by the US-Iran conflict, combined with seasonal demand strength, suggesting that copper prices may maintain a strong, wide-range fluctuation pattern. Key factors to monitor include US-Iran negotiations, US dollar movements, smelting production levels, and downstream demand.
Risk warnings include: 1. Technological revolutions altering production methods and downstream applications; 2. Environmental production restrictions falling short of expectations; 3. Unexpected changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy; 4. Domestic seasonal consumption underperforming expectations; 5. Unexpected significant increases in copper mine and smelting output; 6. A sharp decline in demand for related commodities.
**I. Copper Industry Chain** **1. Weekly Market Review** Supply: This week's spot concentrate treatment charges were negative $78, indicating continued tightness in concentrate supply. The annual concentrate processing fee stands at zero dollars per ton. Domestic smelting output reached a record monthly high of 1.33 million tons in March, representing an 8.7% year-on-year increase. Inventory: SHFE inventories decreased by 26,000 tons weekly to 240,500 tons; LME inventories fell by 4,200 tons weekly to 396,000 tons; Shanghai bonded area inventories declined by 5,000 tons to 30,000 tons. Spot Premium/Discount: The domestic spot premium increased by 15 yuan per ton this week to 15 yuan per ton; the LME cash-to-three-months discount narrowed to $54.81 per ton this week, compared to $65.08 per ton last week. Demand: Data from sources including the National Bureau of Statistics show that from January to March, newly installed new energy capacity saw wind power increase year-on-year, while photovoltaic capacity decreased. Automobile production and sales declined year-on-year in March. Home appliance output increased year-on-year in March. Real estate data remained weak in March. LME and COMEX Positions: LME investment fund net long positions increased by 9,707 lots weekly to 32,548 lots; COMEX investment fund net long positions rose by 13,422 lots, from 41,366 lots to 54,788 lots.
**2. Industry Chain Developments** [Teck Resources Q1 Copper Production Rises 32% Year-on-Year] Teck Resources reported strong first-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share of C$1.75, significantly exceeding analyst expectations of C$1.15. This performance was primarily driven by higher copper prices, record sales, and increased output from its flagship Quebrada Blanca (QB) mine in northern Chile. Production from the newly expanded mine grew 31.2% to 55,500 tons, compared to 42,300 tons a year ago during an extended shutdown. Despite maintenance-related stoppages early in the year, performance was stable compared to the previous quarter. Teck's total copper production for the quarter reached 140,000 tons, a 32% year-on-year increase. The company maintains its guidance for copper production of 455,000 to 530,000 tons in 2026 and 505,000 to 580,000 tons in 2027. Zinc concentrate production for the quarter was 120,300 tons, down 17,000 tons year-on-year.
[Trilogy Applies for FAST-41 to Expedite Alaska Copper-Zinc Mine Approval] Trilogy Metals' joint venture Ambler Metals has applied for the FAST-41 accelerated permitting process for its Arctic polymetallic project in Alaska, submitting a Clean Water Act Section 404 permit application to the US Army Corps of Engineers. The Arctic project is one of the world's highest-grade undeveloped polymetallic deposits, with measured and indicated resources of 35.7 million tons grading 2.98% copper, 0.79% lead, 4.09% zinc, 0.59 g/t gold, and 45.2 g/t silver. The project has an NPV of $1.5 billion and an IRR of 25.8%, with initial capital expenditure estimated at approximately $1.3 billion. Production is planned to commence in 2029, with full operation by 2031. Trilogy and South32 each hold a 50% stake in Ambler. Notably, the US government is considering taking a direct 10% stake in Trilogy. If designated under FAST-41, the project would be included in a federal coordination mechanism, significantly shortening permitting timelines.
[Zambia's Luanshya Copper Mine Plans August Restart] Zambia's Ministry of Mines announced that the Luanshya Copper Mine, majority-owned by China Nonferrous Metal Mining (Group) Co., Ltd. (CNMC), is scheduled to resume production in August 2026 after being idle for over two decades. As of March 27, the mine had pumped out 87.9 million cubic meters of accumulated water, fully eliminating the waterlogging hazard and clearing obstacles for infrastructure construction. The restart will follow a phased approach. The upper mining area, where infrastructure damage is less severe and conditions are suitable for restart, will resume operations in August 2026. The lower mining area, facing greater challenges in water removal, significant infrastructure damage, and requiring the reconstruction of Shaft No. 28, is expected to begin formal production in 2029. China Luanshya Mining (CLM) is responsible for advancing the relevant reconstruction and preparatory work.
**3. Market Outlook and Strategy Suggestions** The copper market continues to experience tight concentrate supply, offset by high year-on-year growth in domestic smelting output. Overseas hydrometallurgical copper operations may be constrained by sulfuric acid availability. Data indicates mixed downstream demand trends. Domestic weekly inventory draws align with seasonal patterns. In the near term, copper prices are likely to exhibit strong, wide-range fluctuations influenced by the US-Iran conflict and seasonal demand factors. Key monitoring points remain US-Iran negotiations, the US dollar, smelting production, and downstream demand.
**III. Risk Reminder** The risks previously outlined remain relevant.
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