Yifangda Gold Mining ETF (02824) has surged more than 9%. At the time of writing, it is up 8.39%, trading at HK$9.045 with a turnover of HK$3.7353 million.
The catalyst for the move was a surprisingly weak U.S. June non-farm payrolls report. Although the unemployment rate fell, the addition of only 57,000 new jobs in June was significantly below market expectations of 113,000. Coupled with a decline in labor force participation, this data confirms a continued cooling in the labor market. The simultaneous weakening of U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, along with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance indicating cooling inflation risks, has driven a broad-based recovery in precious metals.
Analysis from CICC Wealth Futures suggests that following the data release, market expectations for the Fed's next move have clearly shifted towards a 'wait-and-see' approach, leading to a sharp rebound in gold. The current situation facing the Fed is an employment market that is not overheating and inflation expectations that are moderating, which significantly reduces the likelihood of a rate hike this summer, creating a rebound opportunity for the gold market.
As of July 3rd, global gold prices have shown strong upward momentum, with COMEX gold breaking above $4,200 per ounce during the session. According to industry analysis, in the short term, the weak employment data has alleviated the pressure from previous monetary tightening, allowing gold prices to begin a corrective recovery. However, with the U.S. dollar's strength still lingering to some extent, the pace of the rebound remains constrained by variables such as the dollar and oil prices. The core long-term investment thesis for gold, including de-dollarization trends, continued central bank purchases, and its role as a hedge against stagflation, remains unchanged.
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