The Middle East conflict is delivering another shock to global supply chains. Iran announced today, April 27th, that it has suspended exports of steel plate and steel products until May 30th. Specifically, the ban covers 66 categories of steel products, including slab, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and galvanized sheet.
This decision comes after Israeli strikes on Iranian steel facilities. On April 4th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Israeli military had targeted Iranian steel plants and petrochemical facilities, destroying 70% of Iran's steel production capacity.
The export suspension is intended to prioritize domestic supply. Iran had previously halted petrochemical exports, highlighting an expansion of restrictions on the overseas shipment of key industrial resources. As a significant supplier to the global semi-finished steel market, Iran's export halt is expected to put upward pressure on international steel prices.
The suspension affects 66 categories of steel products. A letter from the office of the Deputy Minister of Industry and Mines stated that exports of 66 types of steel products have been suspended until May 30th, 2026. The ban covers slab, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, uncoated sheet, various coated sheets, galvanized sheet, color-coated sheet, tinplate, galvanized strip, and other coated strip products.
The ban is being implemented by customs authorities based on a prior letter from the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade and a decision by the Supreme National Security Council. The letter also indicated that the ban could be extended if the current situation persists.
Iran is not a marginal player in the global steel industry. According to World Steel Association data, its annual production grew from 14.4 million tons in 2013 to 32 million tons in 2025, doubling over 13 years with a compound annual growth rate of 6.3%, making it the world's tenth-largest steel producer.
In 2025, Iran's steel output accounted for approximately 1.8% of global production and 3.8% of production outside of China. Its production volume is comparable to Germany's, about 40% of United States production, and close to a quarter of Europe's total output.
Filling the supply gap created by Iran's steel export suspension faces structural obstacles. A previous Citigroup report noted that Iranian steel production relies heavily on the gas-based direct reduced iron (DRI) process, which is fundamentally different from the mainstream blast furnace route used globally. In 2024, Iran's DRI production reached 34.2 million tons, making it the world's second-largest DRI producer.
DRI accounts for only about 7.5% of global raw materials for crude steel, but this proportion exceeds 80% in Iran, where steel production is almost entirely based on reducing iron ore with natural gas. If this supply chain is disrupted, it would be difficult for other countries to fill the gap using blast furnace capacity.
Citigroup estimates that fully replacing Iran's 34 million tons of DRI production with blast furnace capacity would generate approximately 20 million tons of additional coking coal demand, equivalent to 8% to 10% of the global seaborne coking coal market. Even replacing just the export portion (approximately 9 to 11 million tons) would create an additional 6 to 7 million tons of coking coal demand, a volume substantial enough to exert real price pressure on the global seaborne coking coal market.
The impact of the Middle East conflict on global supply chains is continuing to spread from the energy sector to metals and intermediate goods markets.
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