The global economy navigated multiple challenges in 2025, including tariff shocks and geopolitical conflicts. Looking ahead to 2026, experts and international institutions suggest that uncertainty will become the new normal, though the world economy retains its resilience.
Marshall Mills, IMF's Chief Representative in China, noted at the recent "2026 Caijing Annual Conference: Forecasts and Strategies & 2025 Global Wealth Management Forum" that geopolitical, technological, and demographic shifts, along with humanity's growing impact on the planet, have sharply increased global uncertainty—a trend likely to persist. Mills emphasized the need for long-term preparedness.
Zhang Yansheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, highlighted three key factors shaping the future international environment: whether global trade and investment will become more open or restrictive, whether technological and industrial revolutions will foster cooperation or decoupling, and the trajectory of major-power relations.
Jin Keyu, Director of the Geoeconomics Institute at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, observed that the deep integration of geopolitics and economics has evolved from a "background noise" to a central driver of national policies and corporate strategies. In recent years, signals of fragmentation—whether in trade, finance, migration, or politics—have intensified.
Despite these challenges, the IMF's October "World Economic Outlook" projected only a mild slowdown in global growth for 2025 and 2026. Mills pointed out that the world economy has outperformed expectations, with both advanced and emerging economies, including China, demonstrating resilience. Factors such as milder-than-expected tariff impacts, agile corporate supply chain adjustments, and coordinated fiscal policies have bolstered this resilience.
Looking to 2026, Nomura's Global Macroeconomic Outlook Report anticipates sustained strong growth, fueled by AI-driven investment booms and supportive monetary and fiscal policies. China, as the world's second-largest economy, is widely expected to inject stability into the global economy. Multiple institutions, including the World Bank, IMF, and Asian Development Bank, have recently raised China's 2025 growth forecasts by 0.4, 0.2, and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.
World Bank Chief Economist for China, Melissa, affirmed China's long-term growth potential, citing innovation-driven productivity gains and efficient resource allocation. A joint report by UNCTAD and China's Ministry of Commerce underscored China's role in upholding multilateral trade, providing global certainty.
Mills concluded that collaborative, forward-looking policies could enhance resilience and meet the aspirations of younger generations in an increasingly uncertain world.
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