The week of December 8 to December 14 is packed with major financial events, all times in Beijing Time. Key highlights include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and remarks from Chair Jerome Powell during the press conference. Following the Fed meeting, multiple officials are expected to speak. China will hold pivotal meetings (the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference may convene), alongside a slew of economic data releases, including inflation, trade figures, and social financing. Additionally, Broadcom and Oracle will report earnings, while OpenAI is set to release GPT-5.2.
This week is also a "Super Central Bank Week," with rate decisions expected from the central banks of Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Brazil, and Peru, among others. Notable speeches will come from Kevin Hassett, often referred to as the "Shadow Fed Chair," and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. Meanwhile, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella will visit India from December 10 to 12 for meetings with government officials. The launch of the Doubao smartphone is also anticipated.
**Economic Indicators** **Federal Reserve FOMC Rate Decision & Powell’s Press Conference** At 3:00 AM Beijing Time on December 11, the Fed will announce its December rate decision, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference. Despite missing some key data due to the recent government shutdown, markets widely expect another 25-basis-point rate cut, following two previous reductions. Bloomberg Economics predicts policymakers will follow the path outlined in September’s dot plot, while Hassett has publicly acknowledged consensus for a 25-basis-point cut. Supporting data includes the September PCE report, showing slowing consumer spending in key sectors and moderate services inflation, as well as JOLTS job openings data indicating softening labor demand.
Key points to watch: 1. The outcome of internal FOMC debates, as over half the committee favored holding rates steady before the blackout period. Markets will focus on Powell’s ability to bridge divisions and push through a rate cut with minimal dissent. 2. Powell’s tone during the press conference, with analysts expecting slightly dovish remarks given weak ADP employment and Beige Book data. 3. The updated quarterly economic projections. If the Fed raises 2025-26 GDP growth forecasts while maintaining expectations for only one 2024 rate cut, markets may interpret this as hawkish.
This decision will not only impact global risk assets in the short term but also provide critical signals for future rate-cut expectations and other central banks’ policy choices.
**China’s Key Economic Data: CPI, PPI, Trade, and Social Financing** On December 8 (Monday), China will release November trade data. Optimism prevails, with Huatai Securities forecasting a 3% year-on-year export rebound due to overseas restocking and manufacturing recovery. Zheshang Securities expects exports to rise 3.3% and imports 2.5%, citing non-U.S. market expansion and potential U.S.-China agreements as drivers.
On December 10 (Wednesday), November CPI and PPI figures will be published. Analysts broadly expect CPI growth to accelerate, with Huatai projecting a 1% year-on-year rise (vs. October’s 0.2%) due to base effects, while Zheshang forecasts 0.6%. PPI declines are expected to narrow further.
Additionally, China may release November financial data, including new yuan loans, aggregate financing (M1, M2), and money supply. A key signal will be whether the M1-M2 "scissors gap" narrows, reflecting corporate liquidity shifts toward investment or consumption.
**Policy Events** China’s "Policy Super Week" in early-to-mid December may feature the Politburo meeting and Central Economic Work Conference, setting the tone for 2024 economic policies. Huatai Securities anticipates three macro policy themes: "strong start," "domestic demand expansion," and "tech-driven innovation," with added focus on inflation and nominal GDP growth.
**Super Central Bank Week** Rate decisions are due from the Fed, Bank of Canada, Reserve Bank of Australia, Swiss National Bank, and central banks of Brazil, Peru, the Philippines, South Africa, Ukraine, and Turkey.
**Post-Fed Speeches** On Friday, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will host a fireside chat, while Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker (2026 FOMC voter) will speak on economic outlooks.
**OpenAI to Release GPT-5.2 Early on December 9** Facing competition from Google’s Gemini 3 and Anthropic’s Claude 4.5, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman declared a "code red" and accelerated GPT-5.2’s launch to December 9. Early comparisons suggest it outperforms rivals.
**Microsoft CEO Nadella’s India Visit** From December 10–12, Nadella will meet government officials and speak at AI conferences.
**Other Notable Events** - Kevin Hassett will attend the Wall Street Journal CEO Council Summit (Dec 9). - BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks at the FT Global Boardroom in London (Dec 9–11). - UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves defends her £26 billion tax hike budget at a Treasury Committee hearing. - Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio participates in Abu Dhabi Finance Week (Dec 8–11). - The Asia-Pacific Aerospace Expo runs in Hong Kong (Dec 9–11). - The Doubao AI smartphone may launch on December 10 (unofficial).
**Earnings Spotlight: Broadcom & Oracle** As bellwethers for AI infrastructure and cloud services, Broadcom and Oracle’s reports will be closely watched. - **Broadcom**: As Alphabet’s AI chip (TPU) partner, it’s expected to beat consensus, driven by external TPU demand. Citi forecasts a 147% surge in AI sales. - **Oracle**: Focus will be on cloud infrastructure (OCI) growth and capital expenditure pressures from OpenAI’s "Stargate" data center project. Progress here could ease capacity constraints and boost OCI.
These earnings will offer critical insights into AI hardware (Broadcom) and cloud competition (Oracle).
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