During the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on November 24, 2025, to 24:00 on December 8, 2025), international crude oil prices have shown narrow fluctuations, with the rate of change remaining in negative territory. As of the ninth working day, the calculated price reduction stands at 55 yuan per ton, slightly above the National Development and Reform Commission's 50 yuan per ton threshold for fuel price adjustments. With one working day remaining before the adjustment window, international crude oil prices are expected to strengthen. At 24:00 next Monday (December 8), domestic retail fuel price limits may see either a reduction or remain unchanged.
According to Cao Yingying, an analyst at Sublime China Information, geopolitical premiums continue to support crude oil prices this cycle. However, weak seasonal demand has weighed on fundamentals, dragging down price trends. While European market conditions remain volatile, U.S. oil inventory builds have led to cautious market sentiment, compounded by thin trading during the Thanksgiving holiday. As a result, international crude oil prices have moved within a narrow range, keeping the rate of change in negative territory.
Sublime China Information estimates that as of December 4, the domestic reference crude oil change rate stood at -1.26% after nine working days, predicting a gasoline and diesel price cut of 55 yuan per ton, with the adjustment window set for 24:00 on December 8.
"The current retail fuel price limit may either narrowly meet the threshold for a reduction or remain unchanged. Based on current calculations, the price cut would translate to approximately 0.04 yuan per liter for both gasoline and diesel. For consumers, filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline would save around 2 yuan, resulting in minimal cost impact," said Cao Yingying.
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