Stocks Struggle for Direction With Rates in Focus: Markets Wrap

Bloomberg2023-03-01

Futures flip to gains with China economy rebounding from CovidGerman government bonds extend slump before inflation dataEuropean stocks wavered amid a growing realization that policy makers are likely...

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Shirley Soh
2023-03-01
Shirley Soh
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Eellen
2023-03-01
Eellen
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JerryLJY
2023-03-01
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Chris68
2023-03-01
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2023-03-01
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German government bonds fell as traders braced for fresh inflation data.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index erased a small gain at the open to trade little changed. Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 clung to modest gains after a slew of data showed that China’s economy is on track for a stronger recovery.Bonds in Europe extended their slump after hot inflation data caused a reassessment of rate expectations, picking up a theme that has dominated trading in a month where the Federal Reserve signalled its intention to ratchet rates higher than the market had been anticipating.“February has poured cold water on hopes that policy makers may quickly tame inflation towards target,” Generali Investments strategists wrote in their monthly outlook. “We now have even higher peak rates in our books.”The next pressure point could come at 1pm London time, when Germany’s national CPI figures are published.Bond traders no longer view the odds of a Fed rate cut this year as better than-even, a shift from what they were expecting just a month ago. Market expectations also see the European Central Bank raising rates through February 2024, with a 4% ECB terminal rate fully priced.“For the Fed, they want to make sure that they increase rates and do their job,” Mary Nicola, multi-asset portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, said on Bloomberg Television. “They could continue to hike but they can continue to hike until it starts hurting and we start seeing cracks in the labor market and that’s where it just becomes a real predicament for the Fed.”Key events this week:Eurozone S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, WednesdayUS construction spending, ISM Manufacturing, light vehicle sales, WednesdayEurozone CPI, unemployment, ThursdayUS initial jobless claims, ThursdayEurozone S&P Global Eurozone Services PMI, PPI, FridaySome of the main moves in markets:StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed as of 9:55 a.m. London timeS&P 500 futures rose 0.2%Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.5%The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2%CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%The euro rose 0.7% to $1.0646The Japanese yen rose 0.3% to 135.81 per dollarThe offshore yuan rose 1% to 6.8870 per dollarThe British pound rose 0.4% to $1.2071CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 2.7% to $23,780.5Ether rose 3.1% to $1,654.96BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced two basis points to 3.94%Germany’s 10-year yield advanced six basis points to 2.71%Britain’s 10-year yield advanced four basis points to 3.86%CommoditiesBrent crude fell 0.4% to $83.12 a barrelSpot gold rose 0.3% to $1,831.89 an 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