Bank of America Securities has issued a research report adjusting its forecasts for Jiangxi Copper. To reflect the company's performance this year and its latest production guidance, the firm has lowered its net profit forecasts for fiscal years 2026 and 2027 by 14% and 21%, to RMB 10.5 billion and RMB 11.4 billion, respectively. The bank reduced its target price for Jiangxi Copper's Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$56 to HK$52, and for its A-shares from RMB 68 to RMB 63, while reaffirming a "Buy" rating. This positive outlook is primarily driven by strong sulfuric acid prices, resilient copper prices, increased investment income from Jiuxin International, and long-term growth in self-produced copper concentrate output fueled by SolGold and other potential mergers and acquisitions. Although spot treatment and refining charges have fallen to a historic low of negative $78 per tonne, Jiangxi Copper's management expects a limited impact, as most of its smelting capacity operates under long-term contracts set at a base rate of "0," coupled with robust sulfuric acid prices. The bank anticipates a strong earnings performance for Jiangxi Copper in the first half of 2026. Its global team forecasts copper prices to reach $13,187 and $15,500 per tonne in 2026 and 2027, representing increases of 32% and 18% year-on-year, respectively. There is potential for further upside if supply disruptions occur, such as sulfuric acid inventories at African smelters lasting only about one month. Management has also reiterated its focus on market capitalization management. While authorities are tightening control over new smelting capacity, there have been no reports of government-mandated production cuts.
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