Abstract
Hesai Group will release second-quarter 2026 results after market close (post-Market) on August 18, 2026, and this preview outlines expected revenue, profitability, and the near-term company-specific drivers that investors are watching ahead of the print.Market Forecast
Based on recent guidance and model estimates, Hesai Group’s second-quarter revenue is projected around 877.67 million RMB, with forecast EPS of 0.083 and EBIT of 54.23 million RMB; year-over-year growth percentages for these forecast figures were not disclosed. The company has not issued quantitative guidance for second-quarter gross profit margin or net margin, and consensus margin forecasts were not available; if disclosed on the call, margins will be a central focus. The main business continues to be lidar shipments into passenger-vehicle programs and robotics platforms, where order fulfillment from established production programs remains the primary revenue engine with a steady ramp from awarded programs. The most promising near-term contributor is ADAS lidar, where first-quarter shipments rose 141.90% year over year; the second-quarter company projection of 850.00–900.00 million RMB in total revenue implies this segment stays the principal driver of the quarter.Last Quarter Review
For the quarter ended March 31, 2026, Hesai Group reported revenue of 680.56 million RMB, a gross profit margin of 39.09%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.32 million RMB, a net profit margin of 2.69%, and reported EPS of 0.036; revenue increased 29.60% year over year. A notable business highlight was shipment momentum: total lidar units reached 471,723 in the quarter, with ADAS lidar units at 353,441 and robotics lidar units at 118,282, rising 141.90% and 137.80% year over year, respectively. The main business remained lidar, delivering 680.56 million RMB in revenue, up 29.60% year over year, supported by execution of awarded automotive programs and continued growth in robotics applications.Current Quarter Outlook
Main business outlook
Hesai Group’s main business is expected to post a sequential step-up in revenue in the three months ended June 30, 2026, consistent with management’s previously communicated range of 850.00–900.00 million RMB and the forecast point estimate of 877.67 million RMB. The quarter’s top line should be led by continued deliveries to passenger-vehicle programs under serial production schedules, with incremental volume contributions from programs that started to ramp in the first half of 2026. Mix will matter for profitability: the first quarter’s 39.09% gross margin provides the reference point, but margin in the second quarter will depend on product mix between ADAS and robotics lidar, the share of newer-generation units, and the level of cost-down achieved in optics, lasers, and ASIC components.Order execution risk remains centered on shipment timing against customer schedules. The company’s first-quarter unit momentum reflected the upstream stocking and delivery cadence of customers; in the second quarter, investors will assess whether deliveries stayed aligned with the company’s production plans and whether any volatility emerged from logistics or customer release changes. On costs, continued yield improvements on newer hardware, scale in testing and calibration, and optimization of contract manufacturing could provide incremental gross profit. Operating expense discipline will also influence EPS conversion from EBIT, especially as the company scales new product development that may front-load R&D outlays while ramp benefits accrue over subsequent quarters.
The margin narrative will likely be framed by two pivot points on the call: whether gross margin holds near the prior-quarter level or trends higher on mix and cost-down, and whether operating leverage shows through at the EBIT level given the forecast of 54.23 million RMB. Investors will parse warranty provisions and any one-off items, as these can create non-linearities in reported profitability. The reported EPS of 0.083 for the forecast quarter embeds assumptions on taxes and any FX effects; management’s color on these line items will be necessary to refine models post-release.
Most promising business: ADAS lidar
ADAS lidar remains the most promising contributor within Hesai Group’s portfolio this quarter. The first-quarter unit shipments for ADAS lidar rose 141.90% year over year, demonstrating strong acceptance across programs already under production. While the company does not break out revenue by sub-segment on a quarterly basis, the shipment profile and the second-quarter total revenue projection collectively suggest ADAS lidar remains the dominant force powering the quarter’s growth. The momentum is supported by the company’s cadence of program wins moving through validation and into serial supply, with the shipment curve leaning upward through mid-year.Beyond deliveries, product roadmap execution adds another lever for the trajectory of ADAS revenue through the balance of the year. The company announced a self-developed SPAD-SoC image sensor (“Picasso”) and a new-generation ETX lidar planned for mass production in the second half of 2026. While ETX will not materially impact the second quarter’s revenue, the development progress and early customer sampling feedback are relevant inputs for investors gauging sustainability of revenue mix and future margin. If cost efficiencies and performance gains achieved by the new SoC translate into lower bill-of-materials and superior spec per unit, ADAS margin could structurally improve as these products scale.
In the nearer term, ADAS revenue stability in the second quarter will hinge on shipment execution to models already released or in staged rollouts. Investors will also monitor any commentary on software and calibration improvements that reduce installation complexity, since these process refinements can increase throughput and reduce after-sales costs. The scale of per-model penetration—how many units per vehicle and the pace of take-rate increases where lidar is optional—remains a variable that can influence quarter-to-quarter revenue. Management’s clarity on program take rates during the call would help refine shipment expectations into the second half.
Stock-price drivers this quarter
The first stock-price driver is the top-line outcome relative to the guided 850.00–900.00 million RMB range and the model estimate of 877.67 million RMB. A print above the midpoint with stable or higher gross margin would likely validate the sequential scaling thesis that investors have been tracking since the first quarter. Conversely, a print closer to the low end—if accompanied by a softer gross margin—would prompt questions on mix, production timing, or early-stage costs for new products. The delta versus the midpoint will matter for sentiment even if the range is reaffirmed for the second half.The second driver is margin quality and operating leverage. With first-quarter gross margin at 39.09% and net margin at 2.69%, investors will focus on whether manufacturing scale, yield, and component cost-down translate to better unit economics in the second quarter. Commentary on warranty provisions, returns, and field performance will also be important because improvements here can reduce cost of goods sold and operating expenses. Additionally, updates on the cadence of opex—particularly R&D for the new SoC and lidar platform—will inform how much of the incremental gross profit converts to EBIT and EPS; the 54.23 million RMB EBIT forecast provides a benchmark for that conversion.
The third driver is incremental product and commercial updates that shape forward expectations. Management previously flagged a new growth initiative with an SGI product (“Kosmo”) expected to begin contributing in the second quarter; investors will look for quantitative color on revenue contribution, customer uptake, and early usage metrics. Any updates on partnerships or customer expansions that affect late-2026/2027 delivery schedules can act as catalysts, even if near-term revenue impact is modest. Finally, trading dynamics—in particular, the direction and magnitude of Southbound capital flows—could amplify post-earnings price moves if the print and guide shift conviction on the trajectory of revenue and profitability.
Analyst Opinions
Across materials identified between January 1, 2026 and August 11, 2026, the balance of institutional signals leans bullish. We tally four bullish indications versus one bearish datapoint in the period, pointing to a predominantly constructive stance ahead of the second-quarter result. Below we summarize the prevailing view and why it skews positive.Bullish indicators have been anchored by tangible institutional flow and company guidance. On August 4, 2026, Southbound capital data showed an incremental one-day increase of 2.66 million shares and substantial cumulative net additions over recent trading windows; holdings reached approximately 67.68 million shares, representing 5.37% of issued shares. This flow suggests active positioning by cross-border institutional buyers into the print. Back on May 20, 2026, the company disclosed first-quarter results and projected second-quarter net revenue of 850.00–900.00 million RMB; this set a clear baseline for the quarter now being reported and underpins models that point to a sequential revenue increase toward 877.67 million RMB. Market action on July 29, 2026, when the shares rose close to 10.00% intraday alongside peers, further reflected constructive positioning tied to expectations for delivery momentum. The annual results released on March 24, 2026, showed profitable operations for full-year 2025 and reinforced the narrative of sustained execution into 2026, which has been cited by investors as support for maintaining exposure through the upcoming earnings event.
The bearish datapoint in the same window was the stock’s decline of 8.67% on May 20, 2026, coincident with the first-quarter disclosure and the broader session’s weakness. While this move highlighted near-term volatility in response to updates and market conditions, it did not persist, and subsequent trading recovered alongside renewed net Southbound inflows. In our count, that leaves the outlook skewed in favor of the positive side—four supportive items to one negative—so we present the bullish angle as the majority stance.
The bullish case centers on three elements for the impending report. First, the revenue setup is concrete: management’s 850.00–900.00 million RMB guide and the 877.67 million RMB estimate narrow the plausible outcome range, raising confidence in a sequential increase of approximately 29.00% from the first quarter’s 680.56 million RMB. Second, shipment dynamics remain favorable, with first-quarter units indicating robust run-rate capacity and order pull-through; this supports expectations that ADAS lidar will continue to anchor the top line in the second quarter. Third, product roadmap progress—including the internally developed SPAD-SoC and the forthcoming ETX lidar—provides visibility into future cost downs and unit performance improvements, which could translate to margin resilience or improvement when these products reach volume.
Institutional commentary during the period also emphasized the importance of converting revenue growth into earnings power. The forecast EBIT of 54.23 million RMB and EPS of 0.083 offer quantifiable markers for the quarter’s operating leverage. While explicit sell-side margin forecasts were limited in the English-language materials reviewed in the specified window, buy-side positioning—evidenced by the net increase in Southbound holdings through August 3, 2026—implies that many institutional participants are leaning toward a print consistent with guidance and a steady margin trajectory. That said, attention will be on the quality of gross profit, particularly the balance between mix and cost-down as the company executes on a broadened product set.
In short, the majority view in recent institutional signals is bullish: investors broadly expect Hesai Group to deliver a top-line outcome near the guided range, sustain shipment momentum in its lidar programs, and show disciplined expense control to translate scale into profit. A reaffirmation or refinement of the second-half delivery cadence, together with clarity on SGI product contributions in the second quarter, would be viewed as validating markers by this cohort. The minority caution focuses on the potential for margin variability and the sensitivity of near-term price action to any variance from the midpoint of guidance. As the August 18, 2026 after-market release approaches, the bullish consensus is grounded in measurable flow and explicit company direction, which together define the framework for how the quarter is likely to be judged.
Comments