[Management View]
Buenaventura's management highlighted a shift in production mix in Q2 2025, with copper volumes rising 28% year over year while silver and gold saw significant declines. The San Gabriel project advanced to 88% completion, with engineering and procurement finalized. Cerro Verde dividend distributions enhance available liquidity, while Cerro Verde copper concentrate commercialization adds marginal volume and profit.
[Outlook]
Management reaffirmed flat total project CapEx guidance for San Gabriel of $720 million–$750 million, with $130 million–$160 million in remaining 2025 CapEx. They indicated a cautious approach to mine stockpiling and ramp-up logistics at San Gabriel due to valley constraints. Initial production at San Gabriel is expected in Q4 2025, subject to timely permit approval, with full ramp-up projected throughout 2026.
[Financial Performance]
Buenaventura reported EBITDA from direct operations of $130 million in Q2 2025, up from $107 million in Q2 2024. Net income reached $91 million in Q2 2025, up from $71 million in Q2 2024. Copper production increased 28% YoY in Q2 2025, while silver output dropped 11% and gold production decreased by 17.5%.
[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: Can you provide more color on the pending permits for San Gabriel? Are you confident in getting them on time for the first gold bar production in Q4 2025? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We have invited authorities to visit the plant in September. We foresee no major risks in obtaining the permit, as it is a simple production permit. The total CapEx remains at $720 million to $750 million, with $130 million to $160 million expected to be disbursed by the end of 2025. The ramp-up will take all of 2026, stabilizing production at 100,000 to 120,000 ounces.
Question 2: At Uchucchacua, has the decrease in silver grades stabilized? Will costs improve in the second half? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We detected seismic activity near the operational area and are implementing additional backfilling. Mining in the bottom part of the mine will resume in Q4 2025. We expect to reach 2,000 tons per day throughput by the end of the year, reducing operating costs by 10%. At El Brocal, we will continue mining higher grades and prioritize areas with high gold and silver content, positively impacting costs.
Question 3: How should we model the copper concentrate sales from Cerro Verde? Will this continue into 2026? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We sold 20,000 tons of copper concentrate in H1 2025 and plan to sell another 20,000 tons in H2 2025, with expected margins of $2.4 million to $2.6 million. This process will continue into 2026, but the margin may vary depending on market conditions.
Question 4: Can you review the timing and progress of the Trapiche project? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We are addressing final observations for the environmental impact study, targeting approval by the end of 2025. The feasibility study will be completed by Q3 2026, with ongoing exploration activities.
Question 5: What is the current stockpile at San Gabriel, and how does it impact the timeline for commercial production? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We have 100,000 tons of ore on the surface. We are focusing on mine development rather than building a large stockpile. Commercial production is defined as twenty days of continuous operation and producing two gold bars. We expect to reach steady-state production in the second half of 2026.
Question 6: Can you comment on the impact of road blockades and the use of Cerro Verde dividends? (Line breaks here)
Answer: We have had no major problems with road blockades. The Cerro Verde dividend will be used for continuous CapEx, exploration investments, and possibly dividends for shareholders.
[Sentiment Analysis]
Analysts expressed cautious optimism regarding Buenaventura's strategic focus on copper production and the progress of the San Gabriel project. Management maintained a confident tone, emphasizing their commitment to financial stability and operational efficiency.
[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q2 2024 | YoY Change |
|-------------------------|---------------|---------------|--------------|
| EBITDA | $130 million | $107 million | +21.5% |
| Net Income | $91 million | $71 million | +28.2% |
| Copper Production | +28% | - | +28% |
| Silver Production | 3.6 million oz| 4 million oz | -11% |
| Gold Production | 27,345 oz | 33,119 oz | -17.5% |
[Risks and Concerns]
- All-in sustaining cost for copper rose 63% YoY, pressuring margins.
- Silver production decline due to lower output at Uchucchacua, Tambomayo, and Julcani.
- Gold production decrease attributed to reduced output at Tambomayo and Orcopampa.
- San Gabriel ramp-up constraints due to limited tailings facility area, potentially delaying steady-state throughput until H2 2026.
[Final Takeaway]
Buenaventura's Q2 2025 results reflect a strategic shift towards increased copper production, offsetting declines in silver and gold output. The San Gabriel project is progressing well, with significant investments and a clear path to initial production by Q4 2025. Management's focus on financial stability and operational efficiency, coupled with cautious optimism from analysts, positions the company for steady growth and improved margins in the coming quarters. Investors should monitor the timely approval of permits and the successful ramp-up of San Gabriel to ensure projected targets are met.
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