December 19: In the previous trading session on Thursday (December 18), international gold prices fluctuated and closed slightly lower, forming a rebound-topping pattern while remaining below the trendline resistance. This suggests potential downside risks in the near term. However, the daily chart still shows gold trading above short-term moving averages within an upward trend, and the weekly chart indicates support above the 5-10 week moving averages. Given the bullish fundamental backdrop, any pullback could present buying opportunities near key support levels.
In terms of price action, gold opened at $4,337.99/oz in the Asian session, trending lower in a consolidative manner during Asian and European trading. The volatility intensified during the U.S. session, with prices dropping to an intraday low of $4,308.66 by 10:30 PM before rebounding sharply to an intraday high of $4,374.14 by midnight. Subsequently, gold pared gains and consolidated between $4,322 and $4,340, ultimately closing at $4,332.42/oz—a daily decline of $5.57 (0.13%) with a $65.48 range.
The price movement was initially pressured by resistance and a stronger U.S. dollar. Later, the U.S. November CPI data, which came in lower than expected, fueled expectations of Fed rate cuts in early 2025, supporting gold’s rebound. However, better-than-expected weekly jobless claims and profit-taking near resistance levels triggered a brief sell-off.
Comments from White House National Economic Council Director Hassett, stating that the Fed still has "significant room" to cut rates, reignited bullish momentum, pushing gold to its intraday high. Yet, near-term profit-taking near trendline resistance and reduced inflation hedging demand limited further gains, leaving prices range-bound.
Looking ahead to Friday (December 19), gold opened slightly weaker amid recent consolidation pressure and a modest dollar rebound. However, with the broader uptrend intact and no sustained bearish catalysts, any dip toward support levels may offer fresh buying opportunities.
Key data to watch includes the final December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and one-year inflation expectations. Mixed market projections suggest continued choppy trading, with both long and short opportunities likely.
Longer-term, the bullish outlook for gold—including a $5,000/oz target over the next year—remains unchanged. Factors supporting this include: 1. A cooling labor market reinforcing expectations of further Fed rate cuts, as echoed by multiple Fed officials. 2. Geopolitical tensions and persistent central bank buying providing additional tailwinds.
Strategically, short-term adjustments are expected, but the broader approach favors buying on dips.
**Technical Analysis** - **Monthly Chart**: Gold’s rebound has invalidated October’s bearish topping pattern. Despite facing resistance near the trendline, momentum suggests an eventual breakout and further upside. - **Weekly Chart**: Prices are testing trendline resistance near prior record highs, with momentum waning. A pullback toward the 5-10 week MA support near $4,200 or the mid-Bollinger band is possible, but such dips would present fresh buying opportunities in the ongoing bull market. - **Daily Chart**: While gold has rebounded, failure to break trendline resistance keeps consolidation risks alive. The bullish trend suggests either buying near the 60-day MA support or waiting for a confirmed breakout above resistance.
**Intraday Trading Levels (Reference Only)** - **Gold**: Support at $4,320/$4,300; Resistance at $4,360/$4,380. - **Silver**: Support at $64.90/$64.20; Resistance at $66.20/$66.90.
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