Hong Kong-listed mainland property developers continued their decline, with R&F Properties (02777) falling 6.72% to HK$0.125, Sunac China (01918) dropping 4.62% to HK$0.62, and Seazen (01030) slipping 3.09% to HK$1.41.
On the news front, recent market rumors suggested that a nationwide interest subsidy policy could be introduced, with the Ministry of Finance and local governments jointly providing subsidies of up to 100 basis points, pushing first-home mortgage rates down to the 2% level. Another version of the rumor mentioned a total quota of 100 billion yuan with a 20-basis-point subsidy. Multiple securities firm real estate analysts have taken a cautious stance on these rumors, believing that the likelihood of a nationwide interest subsidy policy being implemented is low.
One analyst noted that "at the national level, extending the loan term is actually similar to the interest reduction achieved through subsidies or rate cuts."
Additionally, at the end of August, multiple ministries simultaneously rolled out a package of real estate and supporting financing policies. Guosheng Securities pointed out that the shift from presale to completed-home sales is a negative for nearly all developers in the short term, reiterating that it most directly impacts "project cash flow" and "disposable cash flow." However, different companies have varying capacities to absorb the impact: large enterprises with high leverage, extensive land acquisitions, and many projects under construction — especially private ones — will face greater marginal impact; smaller local developers that originally operated with low leverage, self-funded capital, and small-scale projects will be relatively less affected; and companies that have already defaulted will have a significantly reduced chance of recovery.
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