The year 2026 marks the beginning of China's 15th Five-Year Plan period, a phase that holds significance not only for the immediate term but also for shaping the development trajectory over the next five years. A key question is how the Chinese economy will position itself strategically from this new starting point. As the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) sessions approach, there is considerable external anticipation for clearer insights into the government's plans.
A central focus will be on ensuring stable growth. The initial steps taken can influence the overall situation, and the momentum at the start often determines the subsequent trend. Reflecting on the 14th Five-Year Plan period, a crucial factor in the Chinese economy's ability to maintain its course despite significant challenges was the consistent adherence to policy stability. Anchored by the principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," macro-control measures were adapted to the evolving situation, helping the economy's total volume achieve consecutive growth over five years and surpassing the 140 trillion RMB mark in 2025.
The external environment during the 15th Five-Year Plan period is expected to become more complex. The Chinese economy will need to address persistent issues while also confronting new challenges. Major international institutions generally believe that factors such as heightened trade tensions and intensified geopolitical conflicts could impose greater constraints on global economic activity. Against this backdrop, there is widespread expectation for clearer signals from the NPC and CPPCC sessions regarding the official GDP growth target for the year and the composition of a robust policy package.
Unleashing the vast potential of domestic demand is another critical priority. If stabilizing growth is the main theme of China's macro-policy, then tapping into the potential of its super-sized domestic market is undoubtedly the focal point for policy efforts. From 2021 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 86.8% to China's economic growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for nearly 60% of that contribution. The Central Economic Work Conference held late last year emphasized "adhering to a domestic demand-led strategy and building a strong domestic market," continuing to list expanding domestic demand as a key annual task.
Since the beginning of this year, a series of concrete consumption-stimulating measures, including a new round of national subsidies, have been intensively rolled out, continuously fueling public enthusiasm for spending. During the recent local "two sessions" meetings, topics such as unlocking the potential of service consumption, accelerating the cultivation of new consumption formats, and creating diverse consumption scenarios frequently appeared on the agenda.
It is undeniable that the Chinese economy still faces structural contradictions, notably stronger supply relative to demand. Authorities have explicitly stated they will research, formulate, and implement a strategic plan for expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. A series of new measures aimed at promoting a dynamic balance and virtuous cycle between supply and demand at a higher level—ranging from implementing special actions to boost consumption to stabilizing and revitalizing investment—are expected to be unveiled during the NPC and CPPCC sessions.
Making strategic moves in future industries is also a key part of the strategy. At the beginning of 2026, the first collective study session of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee focused on the forward-looking layout and development of future industries, highlighting their importance. Amid the accelerated evolution of a new round of global technological and industrial transformation, China is taking a long-term perspective, making early strategic investments in future industries.
Proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan suggest promoting quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied AI, and sixth-generation mobile communication (6G) as new economic growth points. Academic circles widely believe that many countries are currently on a relatively level playing field in numerous future industry sectors. Those who can strategically deploy resources and achieve breakthroughs first are likely to gain the initiative and achieve "lane-changing overtaking" in new competitive arenas.
In this process, private enterprises play a vital role. To better stimulate the innovative vitality of private enterprises, continuous efforts are being made across various sectors to enhance policy support. The arrangements outlined in the Government Work Report, the outline of the 15th Five-Year Plan, and other documents regarding the layout of future industries and the development of the private economy, along with the insights contributed by NPC deputies and CPPCC members, are expected to be major highlights of this year's sessions.
From stabilizing the massive 140 trillion RMB economy, to unlocking the consumption potential of 1.4 billion people, and making preemptive moves in future industries—the opening of the 15th Five-Year Plan period involves strategic moves where each step is crucial and interconnected with the overall situation.
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