Goldman Sachs has issued a research report reiterating its "Buy" ratings for H World Group-S (01179) and Atour Lifestyle Holdings (ATAT.US), citing upside potential in their Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR). The firm anticipates H World's fourth-quarter 2025 revenue to increase by 8% year-over-year, with full-year revenue growth of 6%, both exceeding the company's guidance range. Full-year EBITDA is projected to reach 8.4 billion Chinese yuan, surpassing market expectations. For Atour Lifestyle Holdings, the investment bank expects fourth-quarter EBITDA to rise 57% year-over-year to 700 million yuan, while full-year EBITDA is forecasted at 2.5 billion yuan, largely in line with market consensus.
Regarding Tongcheng Travel (00780), Goldman Sachs expects fourth-quarter 2024 revenue to grow 13% year-over-year, consistent with company guidance. The core online travel agency business is projected to increase 18% annually, slightly higher than Trip.com Group-S's (09961) estimated growth of approximately 15%, primarily driven by low double-digit percentage growth in hotel room bookings and low single-digit percentage increases in average daily room rates.
The report also expresses optimism about Samsonite (01910), suggesting that a potential replacement cycle could boost luggage demand, particularly in the U.S. market which reopened earlier than Asian markets. Full-year 2025 net profit is forecasted to decline 20% to $295 million, aligning with market expectations.
For CTG Duty-Free (01880), Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious view due to uncertainty about the sustainability of recent strong sales momentum in Hainan's duty-free sector. However, the firm still anticipates a turnaround in fourth-quarter 2025 revenue with 20% year-over-year growth, contrasting with declines in the second quarter and flat performance in the third quarter. Fourth-quarter net profit is projected at 800 million yuan, with full-year net profit expected to reach 3.8 billion yuan, representing a 10% year-over-year decline.
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