International oil prices swung violently on Monday, staging a rollercoaster ride as a barrage of bullish and bearish headlines hit the market, with gains narrowing sharply and even flipping briefly into losses.
The restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, positive signals from US-Iran nuclear talks, reports that Tehran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, and an immediate pushback from the US negotiating side that major differences remain 鈥?four conflicting headlines emerged within hours, turning the crude futures market into what traders described as a "headline roulette."
During the session, WTI crude touched a high of $96.54 a barrel, up nearly 4.5% intraday, while Brent climbed as high as $108.83 a barrel, gaining more than 4.3%.
But as diplomatic headlines flooded the tape, those gains quickly evaporated. WTI fell to as low as $91.25 a barrel, down nearly 1% on the day, and Brent slid to $103.76 a barrel. From their intraday peaks, both benchmarks gave back more than $5.
The core logic driving trade was whether expectations of diplomatic progress could translate into actual supply recovery, rather than facts already on the ground.
Meanwhile, people familiar with the matter said Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about reaching a deal before the November US midterm elections, believing the risk of escalation is higher after the November 3 vote. That stance stands in sharp contrast to the optimism that briefly swept the market during the session and makes any one-way price move difficult to sustain.
A barrage of US-Iran diplomatic headlines, with algos driving sharp intraday swings
What truly sent oil on a rollercoaster was the密集 barrage of US-Iran diplomatic headlines during the midday session.
According to a chronological review, headlines appeared in rapid succession: CNN reported that Trump was willing to trade progress on nuclear issues for sanctions relief, and oil prices fell; Saudi outlet Alhadath then reported that Iran had agreed to suspend uranium enrichment, pushing prices lower still; next came word that Iranian officials were pessimistic about a pre-midterm deal, and prices rebounded; finally, US negotiators told Al Arabiya that "differences are huge and obstacles significant," and prices came under pressure again.
Bloomberg analyst Frank Monkam noted that in recent sessions there has been a revival of the so-called "VaR shock" strategy, in which headlines tend to cluster around midday US Eastern time, when liquidity thins out.
The logic: Brent at $105 to $110 (WTI around $95) is a key threshold the market watches. Verbal pressure can not only push prices lower but also force traders to slash positions by manufacturing volatility.
Monday's price action showed WTI falling from an intraday high of $96.54 to a low of $91.25, while Brent dropped from $108.83 to $103.76 鈥?both giving back more than $5 within hours.
Saudi pipeline restart puts supply-side pressure in play first
The first substantive bearish factor weighing on oil was the restart of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline.
Citing people familiar with the matter, Saudi state oil company Saudi Aramco began loading crude through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu on Sunday, with pipeline flows currently at about 3.5 million barrels per day. After the news, Brent's gains on Monday narrowed but still held above $105 a barrel at one point.
The 750-mile pipeline spans Saudi Arabia, connecting the main oil-producing region along the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. It is the kingdom's core alternative route for exporting crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, with a maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day.
The pipeline was shut down after a drone attack on September 10. Before that, it transported about 4 million barrels per day, roughly 4% of global supply.
During the outage, Saudi Aramco increased loadings through the Gulf port of Ras Tanura. Ship-tracking firm Kpler data showed loadings at Ras Tanura surged from about 1.5 million barrels per day in early September to about 6.5 million barrels per day.
With the East-West pipeline back online, Saudi Arabia's two export channels could operate simultaneously, raising the possibility that overall export volumes exceed pre-attack levels.
Capital Economics senior economist Hamad Hussain said that if high Gulf export volumes hold steady and Yanbu operations gradually recover, Saudi Arabia's overall crude exports could surpass pre-attack levels, potentially reversing the recent oil price rally.
He warned, however, that "given the threat Houthi forces pose to energy infrastructure, exporting from Yanbu is far more difficult than in the early stages of the conflict." Security risks on the Red Sea route remain an important variable constraining Saudi export recovery.
Nuclear issue becomes new focus of talks, but "who moves first" dispute unresolved
The framework of US-Iran diplomatic engagement is subtly shifting 鈥?a trade of nuclear progress for sanctions relief is replacing earlier talks centered on reopening the Strait of Hormuz as the new core of the negotiations.
CNN reported on the 28th, citing a US official, that Trump is willing to ease sanctions on Iran and release frozen Iranian funds in exchange for "concrete progress" on a nuclear agreement. The official said the US and Iran are currently engaged in "positive and constructive discussions" through mediators. Axios later cited multiple US officials with a report largely consistent with CNN's.
However, Trump denied the report in a post on his social media platform after the close, saying "that's not true, I didn't offer them anything," and demanded Axios retract the story.
Meanwhile, Saudi outlet Alhadath reported that Iran has agreed to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for eased US sanctions, and mediators are pressuring Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program. But so far the report lacks official US or Iranian confirmation and should not be treated as a formal agreement.
The core dispute is "who moves first": the US wants Iran to make substantive nuclear commitments first, then arrange sanctions relief; Iran's earlier proposal emphasized that the US should first reduce military pressure, lift its blockade and ease sanctions. If the Alhadath report is accurate, it would suggest possible flexibility on the sequencing of steps, but that change has yet to be officially confirmed.
Qatar mediation advances, but Iran privately pessimistic
On the diplomatic front, Qatar is pushing for the US and Iran to resume indirect contact through mediators, but the two sides remain far from a substantive agreement.
Citing an official familiar with the talks, Reuters reported that Qatari mediators are expected to hold separate meetings with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and US representatives on the 28th or 29th, focusing on a revised version of Iran's "7-day plan" proposed during the UN General Assembly last week.
Iran's earlier "7-day plan" included: halting hostilities in Iran and Lebanon, unfreezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets, lifting sanctions on Iranian oil, and ending the US blockade of Iranian ports. In exchange, Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks. Trump publicly rejected the plan on September 26 but later said negotiators were expected to continue engaging with Iran this week.
Araghchi expressed confusion over the US rejection of the "7-day plan," saying the US "seems not to have read the relevant documents," and demanded an explanation. He also stressed that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on whether Iran's conditions are met, and said Iran is prepared for a renewed conflict.
Citing people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reported that Iranian officials are privately pessimistic about reaching a deal before the November US midterm elections, believing the risk of escalation is higher after the November 3 vote. Tehran also believes last week's talks with the US during the UN General Assembly in New York made little progress.
Military risks persist, multi-track standoff continues
Even as diplomatic contacts advance, the risk of US-Iran military confrontation has not disappeared 鈥?a key reason the oil risk premium is unlikely to fade quickly.
Citing US media reports, Xinhua reported that a vessel carrying US military personnel came under Iranian missile attack in the Strait of Hormuz on the 14th of this month, injuring eight Marines, including seven enlisted personnel and one officer. They suffered smoke inhalation and symptoms such as headaches associated with concussion, with possible traumatic brain injury.
Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written message on the 28th, stressing that Iran "has now become independent and strong," saying "the past days the enemy longs to revive are gone forever," and stating that enemy forces will eventually be driven out of the Arabian Sea.
On the legal front, the head of Iran's civil aviation organization, Abouzar Shiroudi, said that day that Iran has filed a formal complaint with the International Civil Aviation Organization over US flight restrictions against Iran, and has filed lawsuits with relevant institutions in The Hague over attacks on its airports, aircraft and radar facilities.
Currently, the US-Iran standoff is playing out across military, diplomatic and legal tracks simultaneously. The market is still trading on expectations of diplomatic progress, not on implemented supply recovery. On core issues including Iran's nuclear concessions, the scope of sanctions relief and the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, major differences remain. Whether the risk premium accumulated in crude can continue to unwind still depends on substantive verification from future diplomatic developments.
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