Guosen Securities released a research report indicating that the media sector underperformed the broader market in February. By segment, the number of approved game licenses remained high. Driven by new product releases, regulatory policies, and AI applications, the sector holds potential for medium- to long-term growth, with a focus on the performance of new titles. The Spring Festival period was relatively subdued, but "manju" (comic-drama) and AI-generated live-action comics gained significant popularity. AI applications are evolving from content generation to autonomous task execution, transitioning from single-point tools to workflow agents, with OpenClaw leading the new generation of AI agents. Guosen Securities' main views are as follows:
The media sector underperformed the market in February. The Shenwan Media Index fell 4.95% in February, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 5.05 percentage points, ranking 31st among the 31 primary Shenwan industries. CITIC Press Group, Ucar Tech, Fengyuzhu, Zhangyue Technology, and Jiecun Group were among the top gainers, while Tiandi Online, Epoint, Insai Group, BlueFocus, and Fushi Holdings were among the decliners. From a valuation perspective, the Shenwan Media Index currently trades at a TTM P/E of 48.6x, placing it at the 94.6th percentile over the past five years.
The number of game licenses remains elevated, highlighting sector opportunities driven by new product cycles, market sentiment, and AI applications. In February, 146 domestic games and 6 imported games received approval. From January to February, a total of 334 game licenses were issued, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The pace of domestic game license issuance remains steady, while imported game licenses continue to be granted. In January, China's game market recorded actual sales revenue of 32.5 billion yuan, up 4.5% year-on-year, while the mobile game market's actual sales revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, down 1.5% year-on-year. Driven by new products, regulatory policies, and AI applications, the sector has potential for medium- to long-term upside, with close attention to be paid to the performance of new releases.
The Spring Festival period was relatively quiet, with iQiyi, Youku, Tencent Video, and Mango TV leading in variety shows, while "manju" and AI-generated live-action comics saw surging popularity. According to Beacon data, the total box office revenue in February was 7.793 billion yuan, down 51.6% year-on-year. The Spring Festival period box office revenue, excluding service fees, was 5.166 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.6% year-on-year, primarily due to a limited supply of new films. In the series market, the top 10 online series by full-length playback volume in February were led by "Tang Palace Mystery: Whispering Wind in the Mist" with 777 million plays, followed by "Peaceful Years" and "How Dare You" with 635 million and 624 million plays, respectively. In the variety show market, iQiyi's "Universe Blink, Please Note" led with an 8.60% full-length market share, while Mango TV's "Happy Old Friends: Windy Season" ranked second with a 6.22% share, and Youku's "Friday Night High" held a 4.75% share. In online variety shows, Mango TV, Tencent, Youku, and iQiyi accounted for 3, 4, 2, and 2 of the top 10 shows, respectively.
AI applications are transitioning from content generation to autonomous task execution, with OpenClaw pioneering the new generation of AI agents. A16z released a global top 100 list of consumer AI applications, with ChatGPT ranking first. Multi-tenant behavior among users is becoming increasingly common, reflecting efforts to combine the strengths of different models to find optimal tool combinations. AI applications are evolving from generating content to autonomously executing tasks and from single-point tools to workflow agents. The OpenClaw agent features automated execution capabilities and quickly topped GitHub after its release. Anthropic launched Claude for Excel and Claude for PowerPoint, with the core breakthrough being "cross-file context sharing."
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