CICC: Macau's April Gaming Revenue Largely Meets Expectations; Sands China Remains Top Pick

Stock News05-04

Macau's gross gaming revenue for April increased by 5.5% year-on-year, which is broadly in line with the market's expectation of 6.5% growth. On a month-on-month basis, revenue declined by 12%, recovering to 84.3% of the level seen in April 2019. The performance in April is considered relatively subdued, primarily attributed to the month being an off-peak season for the industry, lower win rates, and intensified regulatory scrutiny on cross-border gambling promotion and the abuse of transit visas for travel to Macau. Estimates indicate that VIP gaming revenue in April declined by 46% to 55% compared to April 2019, while mass market gaming revenue increased by 11% to 19% over the same period. The mass market segment's contribution to total gaming revenue reached 70% to 75%. The forecast for May's total gross gaming revenue is set between 21.7 billion and 23.3 billion patacas, with an estimated daily revenue of 700 million to 750 million patacas. This would represent a year-on-year increase of 2% to 10%, but a decline of 10% to 16% compared to May 2019. The ranking for stocks within the sector remains as follows: Sands China Ltd (01928) > MGM China (02282) = GALAXY ENT (00027) (these two are ranked equally) > Melco Resorts > WYNN MACAU (01128) > SJM HOLDINGS (00880).

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