Spot gold traded around $4,627 per ounce during Wednesday's European session on August 26, slipping 0.6% on the day. The precious metal has twice failed to break through the $4,700 resistance level, leaving prices entrenched in a high-level consolidation range between $4,600 and $4,700. Falling US Treasury yields and a softer US dollar are providing underlying support, but tonight's release of US July PCE data at 8:30 PM Beijing time serves as a critical inflection point. If the data comes in softer than expected, gold could mount another attack on the $4,673鈥?4,700 zone; conversely, hotter inflation figures could trigger a dollar rebound, potentially dragging gold back toward $4,605 or even $4,558.
On the technical front, the medium-term bullish trend on the daily chart remains intact, with prices holding above all major moving averages. However, the RSI indicator is sitting at elevated levels, suggesting room for a technical pullback and consolidation. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of sharp rallies followed by declines, with the Bollinger Bands beginning to narrow as bulls and bears remain locked in a tug-of-war. Immediate support rests at $4,600, followed by stronger support at $4,550, while near-term resistance is positioned at $4,690鈥?4,700, with medium-term resistance at $4,730. A decisive close above the $4,700 mark is essential for bulls to unlock further upside potential; conversely, a breakdown below $4,600 would undermine the short-term bullish structure and open the door for a decline toward the $4,550 area. Key levels to watch include resistance at $4,654 and $4,685, with support at $4,580 and $4,558. For longer-term positioning, buying on dips toward $4,554鈥?4,564 and selling on rallies toward $4,643鈥?4,654 with targets of 20鈥?0 points are suggested. Note that $4,654 serves as the pivotal level for gold, and all views expressed here are personal opinions and do not constitute investment advice.
Turning to WTI crude oil, easing tensions in the Middle East have weighed heavily on prices. Progress in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding the establishment of a temporary shipping corridor through the Strait of Hormuz, coupled with US economic pressure measures against Iran coming in weaker than market expectations, have alleviated concerns over further supply contraction. International oil prices plunged sharply during Tuesday's trading session, hitting a one-week low. Market focus now shifts to further developments in the shipping corridor negotiations and changes in US crude inventories. On the daily chart, WTI has weakened for three consecutive sessions, with prices approaching the psychologically important $80 mark. The previous upward momentum has noticeably faded as market sentiment pivots from geopolitical anxiety to a contraction of risk premiums. The 4-hour chart reveals a weak short-term picture, with multiple rebound attempts meeting resistance and sellers maintaining the upper hand. Key resistance levels are identified at $82.0 and $83.8, with support at $79.5 and $78.2. For short-term trading, buying on dips near $79.5 (卤$0.2) and selling on rallies toward $83.7 (卤$0.2) with targets of $2.0鈥?.0 per barrel are suggested.
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