Abstract
Northern Oil & Gas will release its first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026 Post Market; this preview outlines consensus revenue, margin and EPS expectations alongside segment trends and Street commentary to frame likely share-price drivers into the print.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, the market projects Northern Oil & Gas revenue at 509.47 million US dollars, down 9.23% year over year, EBIT at 136.51 million US dollars, down 28.02% year over year, and EPS at 0.74, down 33.83% year over year. No explicit consensus for gross profit margin or net profit margin is indicated for the quarter; the company’s prior-quarter margin structure provides the nearest reference point.
Management’s main business mix skews to oil and natural gas revenue with derivative activity as the secondary contributor; the company’s oil and natural gas revenue remains the core focus for volume and realized pricing outlook. The most promising segment remains oil and natural gas production, given its scale at 2.08 billion US dollars over the prior period, though year-on-year comparisons will be driven by shale production volumes and hedging outcomes rather than expansion in ancillary lines.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Northern Oil & Gas delivered revenue of 610.18 million US dollars (up 18.49% year over year), a gross profit margin of 71.45%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of -70.73 million US dollars with a net profit margin of -16.84%, and adjusted EPS of 0.83 (down 25.23% year over year).
A key highlight was that revenue outpaced prior expectations, with a positive top-line surprise versus market estimates. Main business results were led by oil and natural gas revenue of 2.08 billion US dollars over the reported period, supplemented by 380.66 million US dollars from derivatives and 13.77 million US dollars from other items; year-over-year growth for segment lines will hinge on commodity price comparisons and hedge settlements.
Current Quarter Outlook
Oil and natural gas production and sales
The oil and natural gas business is the primary earnings engine, and this quarter’s estimates imply a pullback in year-over-year revenue and earnings despite prior-quarter revenue strength. With revenue forecast at 509.47 million US dollars and EPS at 0.74, the modeled declines suggest headwinds from realized oil and gas prices and the rollover of hedges, compounded by natural decline and timing of new well turn‑in‑line activity. If oil prices remain range‑bound and differentials widen modestly, cash margins could compress from the prior quarter even if lease operating expenses and production taxes stay largely in line with recent run‑rates. Investors should watch any commentary on operated and non‑operated development cadence, completion timing, and potential production curtailments, as small changes in volumes and mix can meaningfully shift EBIT toward or away from the 136.51 million US dollars estimate.
Derivative impacts and hedging strategy
Derivatives are a material swing factor for quarterly earnings given the company’s historical use of swaps and collars to lock in cash flows. The prior period shows a sizable revenue contribution from derivatives, and the current-quarter EPS decline embedded in consensus indicates lower hedge gains or potential mark‑to‑market losses amid recent crude volatility. The path of WTI and regional differentials into late March and April, plus any restructuring of the hedge book, could influence reported net income relative to EBIT. If realized hedge settlements trend below last year’s levels, reported net profit margin may track below the historical gross margin reference, keeping GAAP results sensitive to non‑cash MTM effects even if field‑level margins remain resilient.
Capital allocation and balance sheet signaling
Shareholder returns and leverage are likely to be key stock drivers around this print. Lower forecast EBIT and EPS imply a tighter free‑cash‑flow profile quarter over quarter; management’s tone on maintaining base dividends, variable returns, and opportunistic acquisitions will be important to sentiment. Markets will look for updated commentary on production guidance, capex pacing across core basins, and integration progress for recently acquired interests. If the company emphasizes disciplined capex and a steady return program despite softer earnings, valuation support could hold; if guidance points to higher spend or lower volumes, the cautious earnings setup raises the risk of multiple compression.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent commentary, the majority view skews cautious, with a higher proportion of Neutral-to-Hold or modestly bearish tones than outright bullish calls, reflecting the expected year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS and sensitivity to hedge marks and commodity prices. Several institutional notes highlight downside risks to realized pricing and derivative results as the primary reasons estimates have drifted lower into the quarter, while acknowledging the company’s scale and asset quality as supportive longer‑term factors. The prevailing stance points to near-term estimate risk centered on the 0.74 EPS and 509.47 million US dollars revenue benchmarks, with upside framed by tighter differentials and stronger-than-expected volumes; however, base-case expectations lean toward in-line to slight-miss outcomes given the modeled 28.02% EBIT decline.
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