Economic data came in stronger than expected, suggesting the possibility of U.S. interest rate hikes.
Attention is focused on the latest U.S. non-farm payroll data, which has just caused ripples across global markets.
On the evening of February 11, seasonally adjusted data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January 2026, surpassing the market consensus expectation of 55,000 from a Dow Jones survey. This result also exceeded the revised December figure, which was adjusted downward to 48,000.
The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%, slightly better than the market forecast of 4.4%.
The report was delayed by nearly a week due to a partial federal government shutdown, which ended on February 3. Overall, the data remains consistent with a "low-growth mode" labor market, though signs of increased layoffs remain scattered and not widespread.
In addition to the monthly figures, the BLS also released final benchmark revisions for the year leading up to March 2025. After seasonal adjustment, the initially reported employment numbers were cumulatively revised down by 898,000. This figure is slightly lower than the preliminary estimate of a 911,000 downward revision from last September but largely aligns with Wall Street expectations.
Following the data release, traders have pushed back their expectations for the next Federal Reserve rate cut. They now fully anticipate a 25-basis-point cut in July, compared to previous expectations for June.
Analysis indicates that the acceleration in U.S. non-farm payroll growth in January, with 130,000 jobs added—well above expectations—and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, signals stabilization in the labor market. This may give the Fed room to keep interest rates steady for some time while monitoring inflation. The stronger-than-expected job growth is partly attributed to seasonal industries like retailers and delivery companies hiring fewer holiday workers than usual last year. January is typically the peak month for holiday-related layoffs. Given the subdued seasonal hiring, the scale of layoffs may have been correspondingly smaller, thereby boosting employment growth. Despite the January gains, the labor market remains lukewarm, struggling even amid strong economic growth. Concerns over employment and high inflation have dampened public satisfaction with the Trump administration's economic policies.
In response to the data, spot gold and silver prices fell sharply, with gains narrowing significantly before staging a deep V-shaped recovery.
The U.S. dollar index briefly surged, while non-U.S. currencies declined.
The three major U.S. stock indices saw a sharp rise in pre-market trading, with Nasdaq index futures climbing nearly 1%.
Kay Haigh, an analyst at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, noted that there are initial signs of renewed tightening in the labor market, but it still has a way to go before full tightening. Given the economy's continued outperformance, the Fed's focus will shift to the inflation outlook. "We still believe the Fed has room for two rate cuts this year; however, a surprise rise in Friday's CPI could push the Fed in a more hawkish direction."
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