Eli Lilly's share in India's weight-loss drug market declined from 61% in February to 56% in March, while Novo Nordisk maintained a steady share of 25%. Indian generic drugmakers have launched 26 brands of semaglutide, directly competing with Novo Nordisk's Ozempic and Wegovy.
As Indian generic pharmaceutical companies introduced a large number of low-cost alternatives, Eli Lilly, the manufacturer of India's best-selling weight-loss drug, saw its market share drop in March. In contrast, competitor Novo Nordisk's position remained stable. Data from industry intelligence firm Pharmarack shows Eli Lilly's share of the GLP-1 class weight-loss drugs in India fell from 61% in February to 56% in March, while Novo Nordisk's share held firm at 25%.
India is a key market, with approximately 100 million people living with diabetes and nearly a quarter of its population classified as overweight or obese. The country is also known as the "world's pharmacy," with its established generic drug industry supplying about 20% of the world's generic medicines.
Last month, the patent expired for semaglutide, the core ingredient in Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs, leading to a wave of low-cost generic versions entering the Indian market. While this was initially expected to impact the Danish company's sales, early data suggests Eli Lilly has been more affected.
Experts indicate that as the price of semaglutide-based drugs decreases, sales of Eli Lilly's higher-priced tirzepatide products could shrink further. According to a Pharmarack report, within just a few weeks, 13 Indian generic drugmakers have collectively launched 26 brands of semaglutide, a drug used for both weight loss and diabetes treatment.
The market share for semaglutide continues to rise. Vishal Manchanda, a pharmaceutical sector analyst at Indian brokerage Systematix Group, stated, "The widening price gap between semaglutide and tirzepatide, combined with marketing efforts for low-cost generic semaglutide, is eroding Eli Lilly's market share." He added that in the long term, tirzepatide might primarily target higher-income individuals who prioritize efficacy, given its superior results but higher cost.
Rajeev Kovel, a diabetes specialist based in Mumbai, revealed that Eli Lilly's Mounjaro costs approximately 13,800 rupees ($148) per month, which is more than double the price of Novo Nordisk's semaglutide drugs and about ten times the cost of the cheapest generic versions.
Experts note that demand for anti-obesity drugs in India is largely driven by short-term users seeking "quick results." Mounjaro has been more popular than semaglutide-based products among this demographic, which includes individuals aiming for rapid weight loss before events like weddings. Kovel mentioned that low-cost generic semaglutide has "quickly created market fluctuations, with patients and some prescribing doctors shifting towards more price-sensitive options," a trend particularly noticeable among users seeking fast outcomes.
In addition to generic companies launching low-priced versions, Novo Nordisk announced in a March 31 press release that it was reducing the price of Ozempic by 38% and Wegovy by 48%. Vikrant Shrotriya, Managing Director of Novo Nordisk India, stated that the price cuts were intended to make the drugs affordable for as many Indians with type 2 diabetes, overweight, and obesity as possible.
The price reductions have significantly narrowed the gap between Novo Nordisk's GLP-1 drugs and generic semaglutide. Currently, Novo Nordisk's semaglutide products start at a monthly cost of 5,660 rupees, while higher-end generic versions are priced around 4,200 rupees. Anant Karad, Head of Pharmaceuticals at investment bank Anand Rathi, noted that some generic semaglutide is sold for as low as 1,290 rupees per month. He added that over the next 12 to 18 months, "doctors' acceptance of the quality of generic drugs will be a key indicator to watch."
Experts project that driven by rising obesity and diabetes prevalence, along with the entry of low-cost generics, India's GLP-1 market could grow nearly fivefold by 2030, reaching 50 billion rupees. Some more optimistic estimates exceed $1.2 billion. Experts also mentioned that while several Indian generic firms have launched GLP-1 drugs, with more products awaiting regulatory approval, demand is likely to concentrate around four or five leading companies. Karad believes Indian pharmaceutical firms such as Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Torrent Pharmaceuticals, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, and Zydus Lifesciences are best positioned to capture a significant share of the Indian GLP-1 market.
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