If you are searching for a definitive signal of the semiconductor cycle, the DRAM market sentiment indicator for January 2026, just released by Goldman Sachs' Asia-Pacific team, is not only flashing a bright red "buy" signal but also heralding an approaching price storm. According to the latest channel checks from Goldman Sachs on January 23, DRAM contract prices are facing extremely powerful upward momentum in the near term. The core logic is straightforward and forceful: spot prices have already generated a massive premium over contract prices—the spot premium for DDR4 is as high as 172%. Such a significant price gap is historically unsustainable, and the only way for it to converge is through a substantial catch-up rally in contract prices. Simultaneously, the voracious demand for AI servers continues unabated, coupled with explosive growth in DRAM exports from South Korea and revenue from related manufacturers in Taiwan. Goldman Sachs maintains a robust bullish outlook on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. For investors, this implies that earnings expectations for the memory chip sector may require further upward revisions, especially considering that customers have already begun accepting more aggressive price increases for the first quarter of 2026. Spot markets are surging: the DDR4 premium rate has reached a staggering 172%. Current market pricing has become severely disconnected, signaling that contract prices must undergo a significant adjustment. According to Goldman Sachs' data, since the beginning of 2026, DDR5 spot prices have resumed a sharp rebound pattern; meanwhile, the upward trend for DDR4 spot prices that began in September 2024 is still continuing.
DDR5: Currently trades at a 76% premium compared to December contract prices.
DDR4: The premium is even more astonishing, standing at 172%. This substantial "price scissors gap" between spot and contract prices provides a highly probable foundation for strong near-term contract price increases. Markets are often led by spot prices, with contracts following suit; a premium of this magnitude leaves downstream customers with very little bargaining power at the negotiation table.
AI server demand: Exceeds 50% growth for 13 consecutive months. Hardware demand is not slowing down; instead, it is accelerating due to rising shipments of rack-scale AI servers. Data tracked by Goldman Sachs from Taiwanese server ODM manufacturers (including Inventec, Quanta Computer, Wiwynn, and Wistron) shows:
December server ODM monthly revenue surged 94% year-over-year.
This marks the 13th consecutive month this metric has maintained high year-over-year growth above 50%.
As a leading indicator for the server market, Aspeed Technology (the world's largest BMC supplier), on top of a high base in December 2024 (which saw 131% YoY growth at the time), still achieved 18% year-over-year growth in December 2025.
Manufacturer revenue explodes: Nanya Technology revenue soars 445%. If servers represent high-end demand, then data from second-tier manufacturers confirms a broad-based price increase wave. The figures from Taiwanese DRAM supplier Nanya Technology are staggering:
December revenue skyrocketed 445% year-over-year.
This signifies the fifth consecutive month of triple-digit year-over-year growth for the manufacturer, with the growth rate accelerating month by month (from August to December: +141%, +158%, +262%, +365%, +445%).
This growth is primarily driven by the robust price increases for DDR4. Furthermore, South Korea's DRAM export value also recorded a 72% year-over-year increase in December, validating the macro trend of supply tightness pushing prices higher.
Channel feedback: Customers forced to accept steeper price hikes. The real "alpha" information comes from Goldman Sachs' frontline channel checks. In discussions with investors, market expectations for the magnitude of price increases for traditional memory in Q1 2026 have been steadily climbing over the past few weeks.
Key signal: Specific customers in the mobile market have already begun accepting price quotes for Q1 2026.
Exceeding expectations: The magnitude of these newly accepted price increases, for both DRAM and NAND, is significantly higher than the agreements reached in Q4 2025. Goldman Sachs anticipates that other customers will follow this trend and agree to substantially raise memory prices in 1Q26. Combined with the soaring spot prices, Wall Street's current expectations for near-term memory pricing and corporate earnings may still be too low, suggesting further upside potential.
HBM and Valuations: Target prices for Samsung and SK Hynix. Despite some divergence in market views on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) pricing, shipment growth remains strong. Goldman Sachs notes that while sell-side consensus expectations for SK Hynix's HBM business pricing this year have slightly declined over the past month, Goldman maintains its distinct view:
Volume Increase: Goldman Sachs expects HBM shipment growth to be 9 percentage points higher than market consensus.
Price Decrease: Due to expectations of a significant reduction in HBM3E 12-Hi pricing, Goldman's price expectation is 17 percentage points lower than consensus.
Investment Ratings and Target Prices: Based on the above fundamentals, Goldman Sachs maintains its "Buy" ratings on the two Korean giants:
Samsung Electronics: 12-month target price of 180,000 KRW. The valuation logic is based on SOTP (Sum-of-the-Parts). Even facing major downside risks (deteriorating supply/demand, loss of OLED share), its DRAM blended Average Selling Price (ASP) for 1Q26 is still projected to increase approximately 50% quarter-over-quarter.
SK Hynix: 12-month target price of 700,000 KRW. Goldman Sachs assigns it a 30% AI premium relative to Samsung, with a target Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio set at 2.8x, a multiple referencing the peak of the strong upturn cycle in 2009-2010.
From extreme spot price premiums to the continuous blowout revenue from ODMs, all signs point to the "super cycle" in the storage industry continuing to accelerate. For investors, the key question now is not whether price increases will happen, but to what heights this wave of hikes will propel the stock prices of related companies.
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