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Earning Preview: crescent energy company Q4 revenue is expected to decrease by 0.37%, and institutional views are broadly bullishAbstract
crescent energy company is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 25, 2026 Post Market; the quarter is tracking toward revenue of $886.07 million and adjusted EPS of $0.34 on a year-over-year decline, with investor attention centered on liquids-led revenue mix, operating discipline, and interest expense savings from recent refinancing actions.Market Forecast
The market’s current baseline for crescent energy company’s fourth quarter of 2025 points to total revenue of $886.07 million, a year-over-year change of -0.37%, alongside an adjusted EPS estimate of $0.34, implying a year-over-year change of -11.33%. Forecast EBIT for the quarter is $145.38 million, implying a year-over-year change of -6.27%; margin forecasts are not provided in the dataset, though the third quarter gross profit margin stood at 55.36% and net profit margin at -1.10%. The company’s primary revenue stream remains liquids, with oil and condensate generating $596.29 million last quarter; the current quarter outlook implicitly assumes a stable liquids mix and disciplined production pacing into year-end. Within the portfolio, oil and condensate continues to represent the largest opportunity set at scale, contributing 68.81% of last quarter’s revenue at $596.29 million; year-over-year growth by segment was not disclosed.Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, crescent energy company delivered revenue of $866.58 million (up 16.34% year over year), a gross profit margin of 55.36%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $9.51 million, a net profit margin of -1.10%, and adjusted EPS of $0.35 (down 37.50% year over year); quarter-on-quarter net profit change measured -106.20%, reflecting a swing into loss. A notable financial development was balance sheet optimization: the company expanded its borrowing base to $3.90 billion and refinanced to extend maturities and reduce interest expense, while also reducing debt, collectively targeting improved cash interest burden and flexibility. Main business composition underscored a liquids-led mix—oil and condensate revenue was $596.29 million (68.81% of total), natural gas revenue was $144.46 million (16.67%), natural gas liquids revenue was $92.59 million (10.68%), and other revenue was $33.24 million (3.84%); segment-level year-over-year changes were not provided.Current Quarter Outlook
Oil and Condensate as the Core Cash Engine
Oil and condensate remains crescent energy company’s anchor, contributing 68.81% of last quarter’s sales with $596.29 million of revenue and providing the largest incremental earnings sensitivity heading into the fourth quarter. With consolidated revenue estimated at $886.07 million, the company’s liquids-heavy mix implies fourth-quarter topline should be supported by liquids price realizations and stable operating execution through the end of 2025. While the dataset does not provide a gross margin forecast, the third quarter’s 55.36% gross margin establishes a reference point for unit economics; incremental movements in operating costs per barrel and price realizations will be the primary determinants of fourth-quarter gross profitability. Management’s recent actions to streamline the balance sheet and sustain capital efficiency should also underpin the liquids platform’s contribution to cash flow in the upcoming print.From a sequencing perspective, the revenue estimate implies a modest quarter-on-quarter lift versus the third quarter’s $866.58 million even as the year-over-year math is essentially flat to slightly negative (-0.37%), a setup often consistent with stable production volumes and measured spending into year-end. Given oil and condensate’s scale inside the business, investors will be looking for confirmation that the company’s run-rate well performance and uptime were maintained in the fourth quarter. Operational color on workover cadence, base decline management, and any weather or maintenance impacts will help explain sequential revenue dynamics and guide confidence in early 2026 run-rates.
Gas and NGL Contributions and Margin Sensitivity
Natural gas and NGLs provided $144.46 million and $92.59 million of revenue, respectively, last quarter, together accounting for roughly 27.35% of total sales; this mix matters for margin because gas and NGL realizations and processing costs can move margins by several points. With EBIT guided at $145.38 million for the fourth quarter, down 6.27% year over year, the non-liquids share of the portfolio can be a swing factor for operating income, particularly if processing spreads or transportation costs shift compared with the third quarter. The company’s third-quarter net margin was -1.10% despite a strong gross margin, a spread that highlights the importance of non-operating items and potential processing or midstream-related costs on bottom-line conversion.In the context of the fourth quarter, stable to slightly improved realizations on gas and NGLs could help narrow the gap between gross and net profitability even if liquids anchor the topline. Conversely, if realized prices or basis differentials were less favorable, the EBIT forecast’s modest year-over-year decline would be consistent with softer contribution from these streams. Investors will look for management commentary that clarifies fourth-quarter realized pricing for gas and NGLs, any changes in contract terms that affect netbacks, and how these factors translate into cash costs and margins.
Capital Structure, Interest Expense, and Cash Flow Trajectory
The prior quarter’s debt management—repayment of approximately $150.00 million, refinancing to reduce cash interest outlays, and a borrowing base expanded to $3.90 billion—sets up a potential tailwind for net income and EPS in the fourth quarter via interest expense savings. While adjusted EPS is forecast at $0.34, down 11.33% year over year, the pathway to preserving per-share earnings with a liquids-led gross margin profile is strengthened by lower financing costs and capital efficiency. The third quarter’s net loss of $9.51 million juxtaposed against robust operating metrics suggests that non-operating items weighed on bottom-line profitability; incremental interest savings and disciplined spending can meaningfully change that arithmetic.Cash generation remains a focal point. The company’s previous disclosures of substantial operating cash flow and levered free cash flow in the third quarter provide a recent baseline, and investors will assess whether fourth-quarter cash conversion aligns with the revenue and EBIT forecasts. The capital outlook improvement disclosed in the prior period—roughly a 4% enhancement to the full-year capital plan while sustaining adjusted production levels—supports the case for consistent free cash flow into year-end, absent unforeseen operating or price deviations. Clear articulation of 2026 capital allocation, including the pace of any additional non-core divestitures and reinvestment decisions, will further shape the cash flow narrative into the first half of 2026.
Sequential vs Year-on-Year Setup and What to Watch on Guidance
The forecasted revenue of $886.07 million suggests a sequential uplift from $866.58 million in the third quarter, yet a slight year-over-year contraction of 0.37%. That configuration points to a steady operational base with limited expansionary activity, a pattern often observed in year-end quarters where spending is calibrated to full-year budget constraints. With adjusted EPS forecast to be $0.34 versus the prior quarter’s $0.35, per-share earnings are expected to be broadly stable sequentially, consistent with the revenue trend and EBIT guidance. The outsize year-over-year move in EBIT reported for the previous quarter (2,116.91% growth) was driven by a low prior-year base, whereas the fourth-quarter forecast normalizes to a modest year-over-year decline, setting a more balanced comparison.Beyond the headline numbers, investors will evaluate how the liquids share of revenue evolves into the fourth quarter, the trajectory of operating costs per barrel of oil equivalent, and the net effect of interest expense changes on net margin. Given that third-quarter net margin was -1.10% despite a 55.36% gross margin, incremental improvements in overhead, midstream/processing costs, and interest could offer disproportionate benefits to net margin in the upcoming print. Commentary that clarifies the fourth quarter’s cost mix, any weather-related downtime, and the timing of non-core asset sales will help the market reconcile forecasted EBIT with reported results.
Portfolio Actions, Divestitures, and Production Mix Commentary
Portfolio optimization continued in the prior quarter, including mineral asset acquisitions of approximately $72.00 million and ongoing non-core divestitures, actions that can adjust production mix and margin profile with relatively short lead times. In the fourth quarter, any additional divestiture proceeds or changes in the production mix—especially shifts in the oil percentage of total volumes—will influence realized pricing and margin conversion. Production in the prior quarter averaged 253 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day with oil at 103 thousand barrels per day; while the fourth quarter volumes are not yet disclosed, investors will be paying attention to whether run-rate oil volumes held, improved, or dipped due to asset sales or operational choices.The degree to which liquids volumes remain resilient will determine how closely revenue tracks the $886.07 million estimate and how efficiently fixed costs are absorbed. Should the company allocate incremental capital toward higher-return liquids opportunities within its portfolio, the fourth quarter and early 2026 may reflect a higher liquids weighting and improved corporate netbacks versus gas-lean periods. Disclosures on well performance, completion timing, and base decline management will therefore serve as a key bridge between estimates and reported results.
What Could Move the Stock Around the Print
Three items appear most connected to near-term stock performance for crescent energy company around the fourth-quarter release. First, the translation of a liquids-led revenue base into net profitability after interest and overhead—given the third quarter’s negative net margin—will be closely scrutinized, and incremental interest savings from the refinancing could be a differentiator. Second, clarity on fourth-quarter realized prices and cost disciplines across lease operating expense, processing, and G&A will help the market triangulate gross-to-net margin conversion. Third, the update on capital allocation—particularly the cadence of non-core divestitures and any adjustments to 2026 spending priorities—will frame expectations for free cash flow and balance sheet trajectory into mid-2026.If the company can deliver on the $145.38 million EBIT estimate while demonstrating improved net margin conversion relative to the third quarter, the EPS trend could stabilize despite the year-over-year headwind implied by the forecast. Conversely, if realized prices or cost items were less favorable than anticipated, EBIT softness can feed through to EPS and temper near-term sentiment. Guidance toward early 2026, including a reiteration or refinement of capital plans and return-of-capital framework, would help the market calibrate valuation to cash generation rather than transient quarter-specific factors.
Analyst Opinions
Across recent published views within the past six months, the balance of opinion on crescent energy company is predominantly positive: Buy ratings from multiple institutions (including Siebert Williams Shank & Co, Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, and William Blair) outweigh a single Hold noted by Jefferies, yielding a bullish-to-neutral ratio of approximately 6:1 in favor of the bullish camp. Notably, Wells Fargo maintained a Buy with a $15.00 price target, and Piper Sandler reaffirmed a Buy with a $13.00 target; Siebert Williams Shank & Co reiterated Buy and has referenced a $14.00 target in recent updates. The preponderance of Buy ratings signals investor confidence in the company’s cash generation potential and balance sheet progression into the fourth quarter and early 2026.The bullish cohort’s stance aligns with the current forecast setup: a liquids-led revenue base, an EBIT estimate of $145.38 million, and the prospect of improved net income conversion via lower interest costs after refinancing and debt reduction. Analysts also appear attuned to the company’s active portfolio management—non-core divestitures and targeted acquisitions—viewing these moves as tools to refine the production mix and preserve capital efficiency. Given the third quarter’s combination of robust gross margin and negative net margin, the focus now shifts to whether interest expense savings and operating discipline can close the gap in the fourth quarter, supporting the $0.34 adjusted EPS estimate and stabilizing the earnings trajectory into 2026.
A critical element underpinning the Buy recommendations is the expectation that free cash flow durability can be maintained despite a slightly lower year-over-year revenue estimate (-0.37%), as the liquids-heavy portfolio and capital discipline provide a buffer for margin preservation. Should the company demonstrate sequential improvement in net margin alongside in-line revenue and EBIT, the sell-side’s constructive view could strengthen, with upside to valuation grounded in clearer cash flow visibility. In the absence of explicit margin guidance, analysts are likely to emphasize reported net interest expense, realized price details, and any updates to capital intensity as the key checkpoints for validating the bullish thesis following the February 25, 2026 Post Market release.
Overall, the majority of institutional voices remain supportive into the quarter, anchored by an expectation of steady operating execution, measured capital deployment, and tangible benefits from recent balance sheet actions. If the company delivers results in line with the $886.07 million revenue and $145.38 million EBIT forecasts while articulating a disciplined 2026 framework, the prevailing Buy-side narrative—centered on liquids-led cash generation and improving net income conversion—should remain intact.
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