For stock investors, the Jinqilin analyst reports offer authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive insights to help uncover potential thematic opportunities! Over the past two days, the A-share market has continued its rebound, with the STAR 50 Index and the ChiNext Index posting cumulative weekly gains of 10.84% and 6.35% respectively, and more than 4,800 individual stocks trading higher.
In contrast, overseas markets have continued to experience volatility and adjustment, with US stocks suffering heavy selling pressure. Tech stocks bore the brunt, as the Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 5.52% in a single day, while the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell sharply. South Korea's KOSPI has dropped more than 6% for the week, triggering circuit breakers twice yesterday. It is worth noting that US-listed Chinese concept stocks also demonstrated greater resilience, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closing up 0.43%.
STAR Market Companies Continue to Release Positive Developments
Since October, technology companies have continued to inject strong confidence into the market through solid earnings performance and substantial share buybacks and increases in shareholdings. On the evening of November 5, seven more STAR Market companies newly disclosed buyback and shareholding increase plans, with a maximum amount of nearly 800 million yuan. Among them, Lianxun Instruments disclosed a buyback plan with a proposed repurchase amount of 100 million to 150 million yuan; Ruichuang Micronano disclosed a buyback plan with a proposed repurchase amount of 50 million to 100 million yuan; and Gaoneng Times disclosed a buyback plan with a proposed repurchase amount of 100 million to 200 million yuan. Since October 15, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has mobilized 124 companies to newly add buyback and shareholding increase plans, with a maximum amount exceeding 23.3 billion yuan. STAR Market semiconductor companies alone have seen new buyback ceilings exceed 10 billion yuan since October. As of now, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has disclosed 347 instances of ongoing shareholding increases and buybacks, with a maximum repurchase and shareholding increase amount of nearly 100 billion yuan.
"Independent Narrative" Builds a Solid Foundation for "Independent Rally"
How can China's capital market embark on an "independent rally"? Behind this is a powerful "independent narrative." At the macroeconomic level, China's economy's positive trajectory is the greatest source of confidence for the capital market to steadily and resiliently move forward. At the industrial level, China possesses a sufficiently complete industrial system, sufficiently broad strategic depth, and sufficiently ample room for maneuver, enabling it to effectively respond to external challenges and suppression through the continuous release of strong demand for domestic substitution and kinetic energy upgrading. At the policy level, China consistently adheres to a monetary policy and fiscal policy centered on "self-reliance," continuing to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy. On November 5, the State Council's report on financial work explicitly stated support for the capital market's monetary policy tools, support for Central Huijin Company to play a quasi-stabilization fund role, and the consolidation and improvement of the capital market's market stabilization mechanism. Recently, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, together with relevant parties, introduced a multi-pronged package to stabilize the market and expectations, including intensifying the implementation of two structural monetary policy tools and optimizing the rules for share buybacks by listed companies. These concrete measures have further clarified the market's understanding of the "policy bottom."
Turning to the corporate side, A-share listed companies reported revenue and net profit attributable to parent company growth of 5.6% and 8.5% in their third-quarter reports, with the STAR Market and ChiNext maintaining a trend of high performance growth. Among them, the STAR Market's revenue and non-GAAP net profit growth rates were 41.88% and 674.17% respectively, with 436 companies achieving revenue growth in the first three quarters and 35 companies doubling their revenue; 322 companies achieved net profit growth and 121 companies doubled their net profit. ChiNext also achieved revenue and profit growth of over 20%. In addition, buybacks and shareholding increases by listed companies and their shareholders reached new highs in recent years, with large-scale plans such as Changxin Technology's 5 billion yuan buyback, Xinyisheng's 1 billion yuan buyback, and Haiguang Information's 800 million yuan buyback continuously making headlines. A large number of companies have also actively disclosed plans to terminate reduction plans or extend shareholder lock-up periods, giving investors a "reassurance pill." Since October, a total of 39 companies have disclosed 40 related announcements, including 17 commitments not to reduce holdings, 13 early terminations of reduction plans, and 8 voluntary extensions of lock-up periods. It is worth noting that related commitments showed a dense release trend at the end of the month—30 new announcements were added in just three days from October 29 to 31, accounting for three-quarters of the entire month.
Anchored by Confidence, Firmly Bullish on the Long-Term Trend
"Independent narrative" is an objective fundamental, and to achieve the transition from "independent narrative" to "independent rally," the firm confidence of all parties is indispensable. Confidence guides expectations, and expectations influence sentiment. When confidence is insufficient, even with excellent performance, people will consider the industry trend as "below expectations" due to external marginal variable disturbances. When confidence returns, even if currently facing temporary difficulties, one can see the growth potential under the long-term development logic. Currently, the different performances of the A-share and overseas markets also partly confirm that under different levels of confidence, the market can give completely different answers. How to further consolidate and solidify the confidence that the A-share market is gathering requires the joint efforts of all market participants.
In fact, many institutions are also full of confidence in the long-term bullish trend of A-shares. ChinaAMC stated that from a medium-to-long-term perspective, the "fundamental base" determining the long-term positive trajectory of the A-share market continues to strengthen, and market confidence will also continue to improve. First, the acceleration of the transformation of old and new growth drivers: China's economy is shifting from being driven by real estate and infrastructure to being driven by technological innovation and improved production efficiency. The positive momentum of high-quality development is strengthening, which is an important foundation for enhancing the long-term investment value of the capital market. Second, the continuous improvement of the capital market's basic systems: the new "Nine National Articles" and the capital market's "1+N" policy system are taking effect, reshaping the capital market's investment ecosystem. Listed company supervision is tightening, and market value management and buyback dividend mechanisms are continuously improving. The A-share market will increasingly exhibit characteristics of an investment-oriented and dividend-oriented market in the future, and investors' sense of gain is expected to improve. Third, the trend and willingness of medium-to-long-term capital entering the market are clear, and the market ecosystem is becoming healthier with continuously enhanced resilience. With the continuous improvement of long-term capital entry mechanisms, long-term funds such as insurance, pensions, and bank wealth management are accelerating their allocation to equity assets. Meanwhile, household wealth continues to shift toward equity assets. The influx of incremental capital will play a more positive role in optimizing the investor structure, enhancing the market's intrinsic stability, and guiding long-term value investment.
Finally, the regulatory policy's firm attitude of nurturing the capital market is conducive to boosting long-term market confidence. Recently, the People's Bank of China, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly held a symposium on the two tools supporting the capital market, studying and deploying the full and effective use of the securities, fund, and insurance company swap facility and the stock buyback and shareholding increase relending policy tools, releasing positive policy signals at a critical juncture, which is conducive to consolidating the good momentum and achievements of policy-level firm support for capital market development.
Every time the cold ends, spring emerges; every market trough is a buildup for a leap. From a long-term perspective, the current A-share market, after previous adjustments, is at a phased bottom, which is a good time for professional investors, ordinary investors, and various types of capital to make contrarian allocations in equity investments.
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