On March 13, 2026, MINISO Group Holding Limited (stock code: 09896.HK) released its performance forecast for the 2025 fiscal year. The company officially disclosed its annual results announcement on March 31. Both documents clearly outline the same picture: at a critical juncture where the retail industry is shifting from "scale expansion" to competition based on "profitability, efficiency, and core strengths," the previously fast-growing MINISO is facing multiple challenges, including significant profit pressure and the need to reinforce its core competitiveness. The path to breaking through these challenges is not easy.
Despite achieving double-digit revenue growth, MINISO's net profit was nearly halved. The 2025 performance forecast indicated full-year revenue of approximately RMB 21.44 billion to RMB 21.45 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 26%. However, the estimated net profit for the year was between RMB 1.32 billion and RMB 1.33 billion, a sharp decline of 49.4% compared to the previous year. According to the final 2025 financial report, MINISO's operating revenue reached RMB 21.44 billion, up 26.18% year-on-year. Gross profit was RMB 9.648 billion, an increase of 26.33%. In stark contrast, net profit attributable to the parent company plummeted by 53.96% to RMB 1.205 billion, highlighting a clear trend of increasing revenue without corresponding profit growth.
MINISO attributed the significant decline in net profit for the 2025 fiscal year primarily to three factors. The first and most substantial drag was the investment loss from its stake in Yonghui Superstores Co.,Ltd.. Yonghui reported revenue of RMB 53.508 billion for the 2025 fiscal year, a decrease of 20.82% year-on-year, and a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.55 billion. Based on its 29.4% shareholding, MINISO recognized a share of this loss amounting to RMB 813 million. The second factor involved expenses and losses related to its TOP TOY business segment, including RMB 368 million in share-based compensation expenses from equity awards granted to management and employees. Additionally, the issuance of preferred shares for TOP TOY's strategic financing resulted in a loss of RMB 158 million due to changes in the fair value of the redemption liability. The third factor was interest expense on equity-linked securities issued by the company in January 2025, which totaled RMB 192 million for the year, with a non-cash portion of RMB 173 million, further eroding current period profits.
Concurrently, MINISO disclosed its operational performance for the first two months of 2026. During this period, the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) for the MINISO brand in the Chinese mainland market grew by over 25% year-on-year. In the North American market, the GMV for the MINISO brand in the United States surged by more than 50% year-on-year.
On April 1, China International Capital Corporation (CICC) published a research report stating that due to macroeconomic uncertainties, it was lowering its adjusted net profit forecasts for MINISO for the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years by 11% and 16%, to RMB 3.1 billion and RMB 3.5 billion, respectively. CICC maintained an "Outperform Industry" rating but noted that earnings volatility was impacting valuation, leading to a 22% reduction in the target price to HKD 39.16 (USD 20.32), implying 27% and 32% upside potential based on a 14x 2026 P/E ratio. On April 2, Bank of Communications International also issued a report maintaining a "Buy" rating on MINISO. However, considering structural impacts on profit margins from changes in business mix, it lowered its profit forecasts for 2026-2027 by 7-10% and accordingly reduced its target price to HKD 45.5 (from HKD 48.7 previously), based on a 2026 expected P/E ratio of 16x.
In terms of capital market performance, MINISO's stock price has fallen by over 30% from August 26, 2025, to April 8, 2026, indicating that investor confidence still needs a boost.
The drag from the Yonghui investment is significant and has contributed to rising financial pressures. MINISO's transformation pains are still evident. In September 2024, MINISO's founder, Ye Guofu, invested RMB 6.27 billion to acquire a 29.4% stake in Yonghui Superstores and actively promoted a "transformation" strategy. Contrary to expectations, Yonghui reported a loss of RMB 1.465 billion in the first year following the investment, and the loss widened to RMB 2.14 billion in 2025. This means Yonghui has been consistently loss-making throughout the two years since MINISO's investment. Estimates suggest the cumulative investment loss attributable to MINISO over these two years has exceeded RMB 1 billion. On March 30, Yonghui's performance update confirmed a 2025 revenue of RMB 53.508 billion (down 20.82% year-on-year) and a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 2.55 billion, implying an investment loss of over RMB 800 million for MINISO.
This burden is directly reflected in MINISO's financial statements. By the end of the third quarter of 2025, MINISO's total liabilities had reached RMB 17.841 billion, a significant increase of 129.76% from RMB 7.765 billion in the same period of 2024. Non-current liabilities soared to RMB 9.524 billion (up 367.55% from RMB 2.037 billion), while current liabilities grew to RMB 8.317 billion (up 45.22% from RMB 5.727 billion). Interest-bearing debt totaled RMB 7.508 billion, and the asset-liability ratio surged to 62.23%. As of December 31, 2025, MINISO's total liabilities stood at RMB 17.914 billion, with non-current liabilities at RMB 9.441 billion and current liabilities at RMB 8.473 billion, resulting in an asset-liability ratio of 62.56%.
While pursuing "rapid expansion" to increase scale, MINISO is also attempting to "replace the old with the new" to improve profitability. The company's strategy has long been centered on scale. In the logic of value retail, scale equates to bargaining power, and the store network is the moat. As of December 31, 2025, the total number of MINISO-branded stores globally increased to 8,151 from 7,504 at the end of 2024. The number of TOP TOY stores grew to 334 from 276. However, behind this expansion lies the concern of low store efficiency. The vast majority of MINISO stores are traditional small-format stores with relatively low efficiency. The company noted that same-store sales growth for stores under 100 or 200 square meters was mostly negative, prompting a strategic shift towards larger stores. Founder Ye Guofu announced that over the next five years, MINISO will close 80% of its existing global stores and fully transition to "Paradise Series" super stores with areas exceeding 400 square meters.
Reviewing past performance, from 2022 to 2024, the company's operating revenue grew from RMB 10.086 billion to RMB 11.473 billion and then to RMB 16.994 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.18%, 13.76%, and 48.12%, respectively. Annual profits were RMB 640 million (achieving profitability), RMB 1.782 billion (up 178.44%), and RMB 2.635 billion (up 47.87%), showing a previously strong growth momentum. The 2025 performance reversal suggests that its scale-driven growth model may have reached a bottleneck.
MINISO has been actively developing overseas markets in recent years. In 2025, overseas revenue accounted for 44.2% of its total, nearly half of its business. However, the harsh reality of the retail industry is that scale growth also means soaring costs. In 2025, MINISO's cost of sales was RMB 11.796 billion, up 26.1% year-on-year. Selling and distribution expenses reached RMB 5.266 billion. The company attributed the increase mainly to investments in directly operated stores, particularly in strategic overseas markets like the United States, to fuel future business development. Furthermore, geopolitical risks cannot be ignored. In response to potential US tariff hikes, MINISO is accelerating the globalization of its supply chain. By the first quarter of 2025, nearly 40% of products for the US market were sourced locally, but such supply chain adjustments themselves entail additional costs and complexity.
The core challenge for MINISO lies in whether store traffic can be converted into genuine customer loyalty and repeat purchases. Competition within the industry is intense. The core category of daily necessities and杂货 has long been a homogenized red ocean. Competitors like Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD) with their low-priced identical products target MINISO's price sensitivity, while similar brands like KK Group's KKV follow closely. Price wars and style imitation are intensifying, diluting MINISO's "high value-for-money" advantage. In retail, traffic can be acquired through store ambiance and marketing, but long-term repeat business relies solely on product strength. This is the essential lesson MINISO must learn amidst its expansion.
MINISO is leveraging both licensed and proprietary IPs to drive growth, but underlying concerns and weaknesses are becoming apparent. To compete fiercely in the retail sector, MINISO is doubling down on its efforts, with IP collaborations being a key breakthrough strategy. The company is building a product matrix comprising "International IPs + Proprietary IPs + Cultural IPs" to mitigate the risk of reliance on a single IP. Public data shows the company has incubated 16 proprietary IPs. The effectiveness of IP collaborations is notable. On March 23, a pop-up store collaboration between MINISO and BLACKPINK member Jennie's "JennieRuby" brand opened in Shanghai, achieving a single-day sales record exceeding RMB 2.2 million, the highest for any MINISO pop-up store in 2025 so far.
Ye Guofu stated that MINISO will persist with its IP strategy combining licensed and proprietary IPs. Operationally, proprietary IPs contribute better to gross margins due to higher user loyalty, stronger pricing power, lower licensing costs, and greater uniqueness. Licensed IPs effectively supplement user acquisition, traffic expansion, and content marketing. The two work synergistically to drive high-quality growth in the IP business.
Despite the success of IP collaborations, MINISO's IP model harbors two major industry concerns. First, over 70% of TOP TOY's IPs rely on external licensing, and the growth rate of licensing fees has been outpacing revenue growth, continuously squeezing profit margins. Second, over-reliance on external IPs increases the risk of plagiarism and copyright infringement disputes, which contradicts the positive long-term development logic of the retail industry. In an era of increasingly strict intellectual property regulation, copyright compliance has become a lifeline for companies. Copyright disputes have persistently followed MINISO, which has been involved in multiple IP-related legal disputes in recent years.
Beyond copyright issues, MINISO frequently receives consumer complaints regarding product quality and service, further exposing operational shortcomings. As of April 7, 2026, there were numerous complaints on consumer platforms related to both the MINISO and TOP TOY brands, covering issues like product quality, poor after-sales service, and promotional disputes. Additionally, MINISO recently faced controversy over a policy requiring customers to register as members to complete purchases for certain products, a measure the company stated was aimed at preventing scalpers from bulk-buying and reselling popular items. There have also been instances where consumers reported difficulties obtaining personal invoices at some stores.
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