At 24:00 on May 21, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open. The National Development and Reform Commission announced on May 21 that since the last price adjustment on May 8, international crude oil prices have fluctuated with an upward trend before a slight pullback. The average price over the 10 working days preceding this adjustment is higher than that of the previous adjustment period. In response to changes in international oil prices, starting from 24:00 on May 21, the prices of domestic gasoline and diesel (standard products) will increase by 75 yuan and 70 yuan per ton, respectively.
According to calculations by Zhuochuang Information, this translates to an increase of 0.06 yuan per liter for 92# gasoline, 95# gasoline, and 0# diesel. This marks the eighth fuel price hike of the year. Following this adjustment, consumers' fuel costs will rise. For a small private car with a 50-liter fuel tank, filling up will cost approximately 3 yuan more than before.
During the current pricing cycle (from 24:00 on May 8 to 24:00 on May 21), international oil prices mostly trended upward. An official from the Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that during the adjustment period, international oil prices were influenced by multiple factors, including deepened production cuts in the Middle East and accelerated global inventory drawdowns, leading to more gains than losses. The average price for this cycle is generally higher than the previous one.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission analyzed that the evolution of U.S.-Iran relations is one of the core factors affecting current international oil price trends. Current international oil price volatility has intensified, with the period around May 22 being a critical observation window for the direction of U.S.-Iran relations, warranting close attention to subsequent developments.
Zhuochuang Information predicts that the next cycle will exhibit characteristics of weak performance and high volatility. Li Yan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, noted that the market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish forces, with repeated assessments of the international situation. Overall, it is anticipated that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustments being suspended is relatively high.
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