Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have shifted dramatically once again. A senior Iranian source told CCTV News on the 19th that Qatar and Pakistan, acting as mediators, have informed Tehran that Washington is prepared to engage in negotiations and reach an agreement, showing genuine seriousness in advancing the process.
According to the source, Iran is willing to resume implementation of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding within days, provided the US returns to the agreement and upholds its terms. However, Tehran is demanding concrete and credible assurances that it will not face attacks again. The source stated that once Washington delivers on the substantive aspects of the memorandum—including ceasing hostilities, lifting blockades, and permitting Iranian oil exports—Iran will immediately initiate talks on nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
While Tehran has reached consensus with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, the source emphasized that Iran will not reopen the strait while blockades remain in effect and no agreement with the US has been reached. Immediately following this news, crude oil prices took a sharp nosedive in after-hours trading.
On the evening of the 19th, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Rezaei announced that Tehran has communicated seven conditions to the US government as prerequisites for opening any negotiations. Rezaei conveyed a clear message: if the US wishes to extricate itself from the predicament it created and avoid sinking deeper, it has no choice but to accept Iran's terms. In an interview, Rezaei revealed that Qatar has relayed these conditions to Washington as mediator, and responses from President Donald Trump are now awaited.
Rezaei stated that Iran's negotiating conditions include the US ending all hostilities against Iran, unfreezing Iranian assets, and lifting maritime blockades, among other demands. In a separate development, President Trump announced via social media on the 19th that he will establish an "artificial intelligence force," according to Xinhua News Agency.
Trump said he will soon appoint an AI czar to lead this initiative, describing AI as the next industrial revolution or internet wave with even greater scale and impact, potentially accounting for up to 25% of US GDP. He also criticized "radical Democrats" for attempting to "destroy AI," declaring that the US will never obstruct or stifle this remarkable industry in any way. Instead, it will be cherished, nurtured, and protected. Trump added that existing criminal and civil justice systems would be leveraged to punish AI-related misconduct.
Turning to precious metals markets, gold and silver prices experienced a choppy recovery this week after initial declines, with the Federal Reserve's rate hike cycle becoming the focal point of market attention. Cong Shanshan, precious metals analyst at Huishang Futures, told reporters that the Fed's anticipated 25-basis-point rate hike marked the restart of a new tightening cycle. Combined with an upward revision to the rate outlook, market tightening expectations intensified rapidly, strengthening US Treasury yields and dollar index while pressuring gold and silver prices downward.
However, following the official delivery of the rate hike decision, short-side sentiment was released in a concentrated blowdown, with bearish factors fully priced in. Precious metals subsequently began technical rebounds with significantly expanded volatility. Cong noted that the most notable shift in this FOMC meeting was the comprehensively hawkish policy stance, with raised inflation and rate projections confirming the US economy's resilience and sticky inflation, leaving room for further rate hikes this year.
"The intensifying short-term high-rate expectations remain the core factor suppressing precious metals prices. Given the complex and volatile geopolitical environment, this rebound is primarily technical in nature and has yet to form a trend reversal signal," Cong stated. Looking ahead, analysts suggest precious metals will continue fluctuating within a wide range in the near term. Cong believes short-term markets will keep speculating on the pace of subsequent Fed hikes—if US inflation and employment data strengthen, high-rate expectations will continue limiting upside for gold and silver; if economic data weakens, easing tightening expectations could support a sustained recovery pattern.
Ye Qianning, precious metals researcher at GF Futures, argued that with the Fed's hawkish dot plot and Chairman Warsh's hawkish stance, policy reflects a dual character of reinforced tightening expectations alongside safe-haven support. Rising real interest rates combined with weak consumption demand leave precious metals lacking strong upward momentum. Nonetheless, central bank gold purchases, US Treasury credit concerns, and geopolitical risks provide three layers of support limiting gold's downside.
Ye recommends traders maintain range-bound strategies in the short term, selectively going long near well-supported levels or selling out-of-the-money call options to capture time value. Over the medium-to-long term, Cong stated that high-rate environments will compete with central bank gold buying and geopolitical risk factors, creating solid downside support for precious metals. A definitive trend will require clear signals that rates have peaked and begun declining.
Shanghai Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute also believes that US Treasury credit risk repricing is extending the "de-dollarization" trend, with global central bank gold purchases continuing unabated. China's central bank has now purchased gold for 22 consecutive months, and recurring geopolitical risk factors will construct strong bottom support for gold prices, providing the foundation and momentum for the yellow metal's long-term upward trajectory.
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