Today (October 10), the market consolidated, and the Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876), which encompasses leading companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, pulled back with the market. The intraday price fell 2.37% with trading volume exceeding 88 million yuan, showing active trading.
Notably, funds are actively buying the dip! As of press time, the Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) received real-time net subscriptions of 68.4 million shares! Shenzhen Stock Exchange data shows that the ETF attracted 117 million yuan in a single day yesterday. Looking at a longer timeframe, it has accumulated 210 million yuan in net inflows over the past 20 days. As of October 9, the Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) reached a latest scale of 493 million yuan, hitting a new historical high!
Among constituent stocks, "Doctor Copper" remains resilient, with Baiyin Nonferrous Group Co.,Ltd. hitting the daily limit against the market trend. Jiangxi Copper rose over 6%, while Yunnan Copper and Tongling Nonferrous gained more than 4%. On the other hand, Western Gold fell over 7%, Huayou Cobalt dropped more than 6%, and Chifeng Gold and Tengyuan Cobalt declined over 4%, leading the declines and dragging down index performance.
Why are funds actively buying the Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF? From a sector perspective:
1. Gold: On October 9, affected by easing geopolitical conflicts, gold prices rose then retreated, with both New York gold and London gold falling below the $4,000 threshold. Why did gold retreat after rising? Baocheng Futures analysis indicates that short-term ceasefire agreements between Israel and Hamas led to rapid cooling of geopolitical tensions, combined with previous significant gains, resulting in strong profit-taking intentions among bulls in the short term.
What's the outlook for gold? Bank of America technical analyst Paul Ciana stated that gold has risen nearly 50% this year, marking the best annual performance since 1979. This year's rally could signal a gold bull market. If the current bull market rally can achieve a 400% gain similar to post-2015, gold prices could potentially break through $5,000 per ounce. If it replicates the bull market of the 2000s, gold prices might approach $7,000 per ounce.
Regarding future gold price trends, Augmont's Renisha Chainani provided a very aggressive forecast, believing that after short-term consolidation, gold prices could rise to new highs above $4,200 per ounce in 2026. The vast majority of industry participants at the India Gold Conference expect the gold bull market to continue until 2026, driven by US rate cuts, strong investment demand, and geopolitical risks.
Industry insiders point out that historically, before major gold bull markets, there are often periods of short-term profit-taking. From a technical perspective, after gold broke through the important psychological threshold of $4,000, there is inherent technical correction pressure. Rather than betting on gold as a single track, it's better to look at the entire non-ferrous metals sector.
2. Copper: During the holiday period, commodity prices continued to rise. Copper price surges ignited capital enthusiasm, ushering in the spring of "Doctor Copper." Nanhua Futures noted that an accident at the world's second-largest copper mine (Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine) before the holiday may lead to dramatically tightened global copper supply expectations for this and next year, boosting copper metal prices.
3. Rare Earths: On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce issued new regulations, announcing decisions to implement export controls on relevant rare earth items and related technologies abroad. Guojin Securities believes that with price increases, supply-side reform realization, supply disruptions, and enhanced strategic attributes of the sector, the rare earth sector will continue to evolve with both valuation and performance improvements.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities pointed out that the non-ferrous metals industry maintains high prosperity levels. Precious metals are affected by Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and tariff policies, with international gold prices breaking through the $4,000 threshold. For industrial metals, copper and aluminum prices continue to rise due to supply constraints from Indonesian mine shutdowns and a weak dollar environment. Rare earth prices remain strong due to tightened export control policies. The non-ferrous metals mining and smelting processing industries show both volume and price increases, maintaining high profit growth rates.
**The "Metal Heart" of Future Industries, the "Golden Blood" of Modern Industry**
Different non-ferrous metals have inconsistent prosperity levels, rhythms, and driving factors, making differentiation inevitable. If optimistic about the non-ferrous metals sector, a relatively easy approach is comprehensive coverage to better capture the beta performance of the entire sector. The Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141), which encompass leading companies in the non-ferrous metals industry, passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index. The weight ratios for copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium industries are 27.6%, 14.5%, 13.1%, 10.4%, and 8.4% respectively. Compared to investing in a single metal industry, this can serve as risk diversification and is suitable as part of an investment portfolio allocation.
Risk Warning: The Non-ferrous Metals Leading ETF and its feeder funds passively track the CSI Non-ferrous Metals Index. The index base date is December 31, 2013, and was published on July 13, 2015. The index's performance for the past 5 complete years was: 2020: 35.84%; 2021: 35.89%; 2022: -19.22%; 2023: -10.43%; 2024: 2.96%. The index constituent composition is adjusted according to the index compilation rules, and its backtested historical performance does not predict future index performance. Individual stocks mentioned in this article are for display only, and stock descriptions do not constitute investment advice in any form, nor do they represent holding information or trading activities of any fund under management. The fund manager evaluates this fund's risk level as R3-Medium Risk, suitable for balanced (C3) and above investors. Please refer to sales institutions for appropriateness matching opinions. Any information appearing in this article (including but not limited to individual stocks, comments, predictions, charts, indicators, theories, any form of expression, etc.) is for reference only. Investors must be responsible for any autonomous investment decisions. Additionally, any views, analyses, and predictions in this article do not constitute investment advice in any form to readers, nor do they bear any responsibility for direct or indirect losses caused by using the content of this article. Fund investment involves risks. Past performance of funds does not represent future performance. Performance of other funds managed by the fund manager does not constitute a guarantee of fund performance. Fund investment should be approached with caution.
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