Southbound Capital Records Historic Single-Day Net Inflow of HK$37.2 Billion, CNOOC and Tencent Lead Buying

Southbound capital recorded a net inflow exceeding HK$37.2 billion on Monday, setting a new historical high. On March 9, the Hong Kong stock market experienced overall volatility and closed lower. The Hang Seng Index concluded at 25,408.46 points, down 1.35%. The Hang Seng Tech Index saw a slight decline of 0.12%, closing at 4,941.73 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.54% to finish at 8,581.46 points.

However, the net purchase amount by southbound capital for the day reached HK$37.213 billion, breaking the previous record for the highest single-day net purchase set on August 15, 2025, which was HK$35.876 billion.

Specifically, among the top ten active individual stocks, CNOOC received the largest net inflow from southbound capital, with a combined net inflow of HK$2.105 billion through the Shanghai and Shenzhen Hong Kong Stock Connect programs. This was followed by Tencent Holdings, which saw a combined net inflow of HK$1.666 billion.

In terms of sectors, semiconductors, real estate, and media led the declines in the Hong Kong market on Monday, while coal, software services, and oil & petrochemicals showed strength. The energy theme performed strongly overall, with oil and coal stocks remaining robust throughout the session. By the close, Shandong Molong rose 25.06%, Yanchang Petroleum International increased 15.79%, CNOOC gained 3.31%, and PetroChina advanced 2.31%. Yancoal Australia climbed 8.54%, Yanzhou Coal Mining rose 3.89%, and China Shenhua Energy increased 3.28%. The surge was driven by disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz combined with production cuts from several Middle Eastern countries, causing international oil prices to spike 31% on March 9 before sharply retreating, with WTI and Brent crude briefly approaching $120 per barrel.

Catalyzed by open-source ecosystem developments, demand surged. By the close, MiniMax jumped 23.77%, Kingsoft Cloud surged 13.66%, and Chizicheng Technology advanced 9.67. The rally followed MiniMax's announcement on Monday of its new Voice Maker speech model and Music Maker music model, two major "Lobster" capabilities officially launched on the OpenClaw ecosystem. MiniMax's Hong Kong-listed shares closed at HK$997, hitting a record high, with its total market capitalization surpassing HK$300 billion to reach HK$312.7 billion.

Memory chip stocks declined, with GigaDevice Semiconductor falling 6.59% and Montage Technology dropping 2.41% by the close.

Regarding Hong Kong stock allocation, Huatai Securities suggested that overseas geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy prices and intensifying stagflation concerns. It recommends increasing allocation to power operators that possess strong anti-stagflation attributes, are at the bottom of their operational cycle, and benefit from "Token economy" overseas demand. The firm also advises simultaneous attention to leading oil and gas companies and coal-power integrated enterprises.

From a medium-term perspective, Huatai Securities believes the logic for storage semiconductor hardware within the AI industry chain and power equipment with overseas capabilities remains unchanged. It suggests considering buying on dips if pullbacks occur due to macroeconomic volatility. Additionally, niche consumer sectors showing marginal improvement in景气度 offer alpha opportunities, which can help enhance portfolio defensive resilience. Non-ferrous metals (upstream in the power chain), insurance, and high-quality Hong Kong local assets can still be key focuses for core holdings.

Galaxy Securities pointed out that the technology sector currently holds significant investment value. As market sentiment recovers, the technology sector is expected to show a pattern of initial suppression followed by a rally. Concurrently, the value style is favored, with recommendations to focus on cyclical resource products. Benefiting from the deepening of "anti-involution" policies, the profits of resource-based enterprises listed in Hong Kong are expected to continue recovering. On the other hand, uncertainties such as the situation in Iran provide catalysts for price increases upwards, while high dividends offer marginal support downwards for sectors like coal, oil & gas, and chemicals. Furthermore, energy shipping, telecommunications operators, utilities, and high-dividend financial stocks can serve as hedges against other sectors negatively impacted by geopolitics.