East Money Securities released a research report highlighting that, according to a survey by Dewu, sports consumption is expected to rise with increased exercise time and age. About 96% of outdoor consumers plan to continue spending, with 27% intending to invest more in the future, indicating robust and sustained growth potential for the outdoor consumption market. From January to October 2025, affordable jackets priced between CNY 349–699 dominated the market, with Camel, PELLIOT, and The North Face ranking as the top three brands in online sales.
On the manufacturing side, referencing Adidas’ restructuring and Nike’s improving inventory gross margins, East Money Securities anticipates a recovery in Nike’s performance by 2026, which will gradually boost orders for its upstream manufacturers. Key insights include:
**Outdoor Sports Go Mainstream, Chinese Brands Outperform** By early April 2025, China’s outdoor sports participation exceeded 400 million, or a 30% participation rate, still half of the U.S. level, suggesting significant growth potential. Activities like winter sports, mountain hiking, water sports, and suburban recreation form a diverse consumption matrix. Data from Dewu shows that from 2020 to 2024, Chinese outdoor apparel and footwear brands grew at a CAGR of 17.4%, far outpacing international brands’ 9.4%. The report projects the outdoor apparel and accessories market to reach CNY 215.7 billion by 2029, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2025 to 2029.
**Key Segments: Jackets, Sun-Protective Apparel, and Running Shoes** 1) **Jackets**: Affordable jackets (CNY 349–699) led sales in early 2025, while premium segments (CNY 699–1,599 and above) grew faster at 26% and 24%, respectively. 2) **Sun-Protective Apparel**: Dominated by new brands under CNY 200, though established players like Camel, Bosideng, PELLIOT, and The North Face have entered the space. 3) **Running Shoes**: Performance-driven demand and domestic brands’ cost-effectiveness fueled growth in Q2/Q3 2025. The surge in running events and brands’ expansion into trail running shoes are expected to drive further volume and price increases.
**Seasonal Demand and Down Apparel Potential** With La Niña expected from late 2025 to early 2026, volatile winter weather may spur demand for down jackets. The delayed 2026 Lunar New Year holiday could extend the sales cycle. China’s down apparel production rose 4.28% YoY in H1 2025, the fastest-growing apparel category. The market is projected to hit CNY 240–250 billion in 2025, with long-term penetration opportunities. Brands like Bosideng and outdoor specialists are competing in the premium segment.
**Manufacturing Recovery: Nike’s Supply Chain in Focus** Adidas’ turnaround and Nike’s reforms—streamlining operations, refining core running products, and improving margins—suggest a 2026 recovery for Nike, benefiting upstream suppliers. Despite Nike’s FY26Q1 revenue rising 1.1% YoY, net profit fell 30.8%, with running category sales up ~20% globally.
**U.S. Apparel Inventory and Tariff Impact** U.S. apparel inventory stood at USD 86.5 billion in July 2025, down 14.2% from its 2022 peak. Wholesale/retail inventory ratios remain stable. While earlier tariffs on ASEAN nations (e.g., Vietnam, Cambodia) caused order hesitancy, recent reductions to ~20% may ease concerns.
**Risks**: Slower-than-expected consumption recovery, trade policy shifts, commodity price volatility, and forex fluctuations.
Comments