Copper: (Zhan Dapeng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3013795; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0013582) Overnight, copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated lower, the domestic refined copper spot import window remained closed, and the Comex-LME copper price spread narrowed to around $140 per tonne.
On the macroeconomic front, U.S. Labor Department data showed that the September CPI rose 3.7% year-on-year, the largest increase in five months, above the expected 3.6% and the previous 3.4%; core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year, also exceeding expectations of 2.5% and marking the fastest gain in five months. The data indicated that the persistence of U.S. inflation pressures exceeded previous market expectations, and investors raised their bets on a Fed rate hike in October, with the probability rising to 50%, while also expecting the Fed to raise rates three more times cumulatively by the end of 2027. The Fed's latest Beige Book showed that price pressures facing U.S. businesses are intensifying, with cost increases from high oil prices having seeped into multiple regions, while tariffs, other commodities and insurance costs also continued to push up corporate spending; overall U.S. economic growth was modest, labor market changes were limited, and consumers were becoming increasingly sensitive to price increases.
Domestically, China's September CPI year-on-year increase widened to 0.9%, while PPI rose 5.0% year-on-year; September exports in U.S. dollar terms rose 36.3% year-on-year, far exceeding the expected 25.7%, while imports rose 31%, with a trade surplus of $133.53 billion.
On the inventory side, LME copper inventories fell 1,650 tonnes to 228,000 tonnes; Comex copper inventories rose 595 tonnes to 715,115 tonnes; SHFE copper warrants increased 14,050 tonnes to 23,457 tonnes, while BC copper warrants remained at 3,579 tonnes.
On the demand side, downstream buyers maintained hand-to-mouth purchasing, willingness to stock up at high prices was weak, and the spot market maintained a premium structure. The rapid rise in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October caused macro sentiment to tighten abruptly, affecting the trend of global risk assets, and copper prices followed lower.
However, the current focus remains on the U.S. refined copper import tariff policy. The White House has yet to make a final decision on tariffs, and U.S. copper maintains a premium of around $100 to $200 per tonne relative to LME copper, which has reduced the marginal arbitrage benefit of refined copper trade but also means U.S. copper will not flow out significantly. Before this pattern breaks down, the shortage of copper inventories in non-U.S. regions will keep copper prices range-bound; once the pattern changes, a trend may also emerge.
Nickel & Stainless Steel: (Zhu Xi, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $15,530 per tonne, while Shanghai nickel fell 0.64% to 117,690 yuan per tonne. On the inventory side, LME inventories rose 150 tonnes to 282,654 tonnes, and SHFE warrants increased 486 tonnes to 93,267 tonnes. In terms of premiums and discounts, the LME 0-3 month spread remained in negative territory; the imported nickel premium remained at 200 yuan per tonne.
On the news front, on October 6, Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) said that the 2027 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) evaluation would be faster than in 2026 and promised a fair decision on nickel ore production quotas, aiming to issue the 2027 nickel ore RKAB before the regulatory deadline, avoiding delays to the maximum evaluation period and striving for early completion. On October 7, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition, who is also the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, said the government plans to further tighten the moratorium on new nickel smelters producing semi-finished products, although the relevant moratorium policy has already been stipulated in Government Regulation No. 28 of 2025. On October 8, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto traveled to Central Halmahera in North Maluku province to launch downstreaming projects worth $10.2 billion (about 180 trillion rupiah) at PT Indonesia Weda Bay Industrial Park (IWIP).
From a fundamental perspective, nickel ore prices, premiums and sulfur prices weakened month-on-month, while due to climate, power and other pressures, some segments of the industrial chain saw production cuts in October, but the feedback from current cuts to inventories has not been significant. Pressure from quota increments and weakening theoretical cost support remains, and prices may run in a low-level range in the short term, but attention should be paid to supply-side production cut variables and Indonesian policy, while guarding against macroeconomic disturbances.
Alumina & Electrolytic Aluminum & Aluminum Alloy: (Wang Heng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) Overnight, alumina AO2701 closed at 2,593 yuan per tonne, down 1.59%. Open interest increased by 22,662 lots to 304,000 lots. Overnight LME closed at $2,987 per tonne, down 1.57%, with inventories falling 250 tonnes to 238,400 tonnes. Shanghai aluminum AL2611 closed at 23,120 yuan per tonne, down 0.96%, with open interest falling 2,877 lots to 235,000 lots. Aluminum alloy AD2612 closed at 22,725 yuan per tonne, down 1.41%. Open interest increased by 237 lots to 20,606 lots; on the spot side, the SMM alumina price fell back to 2,667 yuan per tonne. The aluminum ingot spot premium narrowed to 30 yuan per tonne. The Foshan A00 quote fell back to 23,690 yuan per tonne, while Wuxi A00 was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan per tonne. Aluminum billet processing fees were stable in many regions, with Xinjiang and Guangdong up 50 yuan per tonne; aluminum rod 1A60 series processing fees rose 50 yuan per tonne, 6/8 series processing fees rose 50-100 yuan per tonne, and low-carbon 6/8 series fell 60-111 yuan per tonne.
Progress in signing next year's long-term contracts for Guinea ore continued to provide support for forward alumina costs, and domestic alumina plants continued to consume raw material inventories, facing subsequent pressure from higher new long-term contract prices. The current futures price is close to the cash cost in high-cost regions such as Shanxi, and alumina valuation has entered a support level. The strong dollar and high interest rate environment suppressed nonferrous valuations, and combined with the fading of Middle East risk premiums and the acceleration of smelter restarts in the Middle East, LME long sentiment showed clear cooling, and the LME destocking pace began to gradually stall. At the same time, domestic Golden September demand recovery fell short of expectations, and the market was also lowering its expectations for Silver October demand. At present, the downside support for aluminum prices remains relatively firm, and given the divergence in overseas sentiment, the possibility of a large rally is relatively low.
Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: (Wang Heng, Practitioner Qualification No.: F3080733; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0020715) On the 14th, industrial silicon main contract 2611 closed at 8,670 yuan per tonne, with intraday change flat, and open interest fell 11,287 lots to 168,000 lots. The Baiinfo industrial silicon spot reference price was 9,246 yuan per tonne, up 14 yuan per tonne from the previous trading day. The lowest deliverable price rose to 8,850 yuan per tonne, and the spot premium widened to 245 yuan per tonne. Polysilicon fluctuated weaker, with the main contract 2611 closing at 34,350 yuan per tonne, down 1.45% intraday. Open interest fell 1,189 lots to 77,660 lots; the lowest deliverable price edged up to 40,500 yuan per tonne, and the spot premium widened to 5,010 yuan per tonne. Silicon plants in Southwest China began production halts, while sporadic restarts at large furnace types in the Northwest offset some of the reduction, and actual October output cuts may be lower than expected. If large-scale polysilicon production cutbacks are confirmed around mid-month, industrial silicon may face the risk of demand collapse. Polysilicon material plant inventories increased further, and the spot premium rose again. October large orders have not yet been signed, with only some wafer manufacturers with low raw material inventories and overseas traceability orders releasing a small amount of purchasing interest; most wafer plants still have one to two months of operating inventory, making it difficult to see better-than-expected pickup in procurement. Polysilicon has already found bottom support, while the upward turning point has not yet appeared. Track whether new signals emerge in energy consumption and other policies as well as bargaining across the industrial chain, while whether the pace and scale of silicon material plant production cuts in October can form actual destocking will be the decisive factor.
Lithium Carbonate: (Zhu Xi, Practitioner Qualification No.: F03109968; Trading Advisory Qualification No.: Z0021609) Yesterday, lithium carbonate futures 2701 fell 4.34% to 100,900 yuan per tonne, with daily open interest increasing 4,908 lots to 427,000 lots. On the spot price side, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,400 yuan per tonne to 108,250 yuan per tonne, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate fell 3,400 yuan per tonne to 104,750 yuan per tonne, and battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 3,500 yuan per tonne to 98,500 yuan per tonne. On the warrant side, yesterday's warrant inventory decreased 1,182 tonnes to 28,461 tonnes.
On the news front, according to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China's equipment manufacturing industry played a prominent leading role, contributing nearly 90% of export growth, while intermediate goods accounted for more than half of total export value, effectively serving as a "stabilizing anchor" for global production and supply chains. Export products moved toward intelligence and green development, with integrated circuit exports up 99.1%, and exports of green products such as electric vehicles, lithium batteries, wind power generating sets and components up 72.3%, 36.4% and 22.4%, respectively. According to CNESA, after market adjustment in the first half of the year, China's new-type energy storage market saw a clear recovery in the third quarter; in September, newly added domestic new-type energy storage installed capacity was 4.33 GW, up 42% year-on-year and 8% month-on-month, with independent energy storage accounting for 85.3%, and scale up 112% year-on-year.
On the supply side, weekly lithium carbonate output fell 699 tonnes month-on-month to 25,895 tonnes, and October lithium carbonate output was expected to fall 370 tonnes month-on-month to 118,071 tonnes. On the demand side, October ternary material output was expected to rise 3% month-on-month to 84,110 tonnes, lithium iron phosphate output was expected to rise 4% month-on-month to 640,000 tonnes, lithium cobalt oxide output was expected to fall 9% month-on-month to 5,760 tonnes, and lithium manganese oxide output was expected to fall 6% month-on-month to 10,400 tonnes; October lithium battery output was expected to rise 6% month-on-month to 320.4 GWh.
On the inventory side, weekly inventories fell 9,260 tonnes month-on-month to 139,517 tonnes, of which upstream inventories rose 201 tonnes month-on-month to 31,342 tonnes, cathode plant inventories fell 8,347 tonnes month-on-month to 42,952 tonnes, trader inventories fell 1,445 tonnes month-on-month to 45,225 tonnes, and cell plants and others rose 331 tonnes month-on-month to 19,998 tonnes. In the short term, from a monthly balance perspective, the October destocking pace may accelerate compared with last month; however, current market sentiment is weak, macroeconomic factors continue to cause disturbances, and from a fundamental perspective, strong reality has repeatedly been weakened while weak expectations continue to solidify. Prices fell rapidly earlier, and in the short term attention should be paid to market sentiment.
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