高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！

华尔街见闻2022-12-21

高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

Santi小汤
2022-12-21
Santi小汤
高盛嗎？妥了妥了
藥瀚
2022-12-21
藥瀚
天天嚇唬
旷世猛男
2022-12-21
旷世猛男
穩了
- 康康的:
  好

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1199803773?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-12-21 16:41","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"1199803773","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛“语出惊人”：小心“陷阱”，美联储明年可能加速加息！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-12-21 16:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"GS","symbol_name":"高盛","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013","article_id":"1199803773","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/37d43f47ff4637f33c2675f14c1cc937"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3678013","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199803773","pubTimestamp":1671612077,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"GS":"高盛",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Goldman Sachs \"speaks surprisingly\": Be careful of the \"trap\", the Federal Reserve may accelerate interest rate hikes next year!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cd23cb44bccff9f8dba21cfaed6bac4","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"GS":0.9},"content_text":"高盛认为明年美国经济衰退的可能性为35%，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储可能需要在明年加速加息。高盛认为，美联储将加息速度降至50个基点可能只是一个“速度陷阱”。高盛经济学家Joseph Briggs在最新的报告中指出，随着今年货币紧缩政策带给市场的冲击逐步消失，美联储有可能在明年再次加快加息步伐，预计明年经济衰退的可能性为35%。媒体分析认为，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高利率来对抗通货膨胀，直到就业市场降温。这几乎总是伴随着经济衰退，如果经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储实际上可能需要在明年继续加息。经济开始复苏了Briggs认为，现在最重要的是美联储收紧政策如何影响国债收益率、股票估值、货币强弱、企业借贷成本等金融状况，Briggs称：因为投资者认为美联储将继续放慢加息步伐，大多数投资者们估计利率峰值将达到5%至5.25% 左右的峰值。股市已从10月的低点小幅反弹，美国国债收益率/借贷成本已从11月初的高点回落。同时，Briggs指出，虽然美联储在12月再次加息，但金融条件已较上个月大幅放松。华尔街见闻此前提及，高盛认为基于目前的FCI水平（全球金融条件指数），金融条件对明年美国经济的拖累的可能性会大幅降低。这或将意味着美国经济将继续增长，明年的国内生产总值将增长约1%。报告指出：基于目前的FCI水平，金融条件的拖累可能会在明年大幅减少，这可能意味着经济增长将出人意料地上升。然而，10月份个人储蓄率下降到2.3%，但有几个理由让我们认为储蓄率将在明年反弹，包括：1.自住房和股票的负面财富效应；2.被压抑的储蓄对支出的影响减少。 因此，总的来说，我们仍然认为明年的国内生产总值将增长约1%。同时，Briggs认为美联储有可能需要在2023年再次加大加息速度，因为劳动力市场的降温格外的滞后。此外，Briggs指出，美联储最爱的美国核心PCE物价指数通常在加息的三到六个月内反应最大，同时在加息的3-4个季度后工资增长才会逐渐显现，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。Briggs称：具体而言，我们估计2-3个季度后对工作岗位和员工需求的一半影响才会出现，需要3-4个季度才能出现工资增长，因此工资驱动的通货膨胀会更加滞后。因此，高盛认为2023年经济衰退的可能性只有35%。媒体分析指出，在过去的二十年里，美联储主要通过提高利率来对抗通货膨胀，直到就业市场降温。这几乎总是伴随着经济衰退，如果导致经济衰退是对抗通胀的唯一方法，那么美联储实际上可能需要在明年继续加息。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":623457563,"gmtCreate":1671622957854,"gmtModify":1676538565229,"author":{"id":"3491292989404422","authorId":"3491292989404422","name":"Santi小汤","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/824529f32e2f5d57ea9898b7e9a3fd48","vip":2,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95a0ce7a7fe8e0518b38aeef5c80667c","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3491292989404422","idStr":"3491292989404422"},"htmlText":"高盛嗎？妥了妥了","listText":"高盛嗎？妥了妥了","text":"高盛嗎？妥了妥了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623457563","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623457197,"gmtCreate":1671622804222,"gmtModify":1676538565196,"author":{"id":"3529885058817190","authorId":"3529885058817190","name":"藥瀚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b1e1625f113ae747649f2e22e71b5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3529885058817190","idStr":"3529885058817190"},"htmlText":"天天嚇唬","listText":"天天嚇唬","text":"天天嚇唬","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623457197","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":623423829,"gmtCreate":1671613398063,"gmtModify":1676538563942,"author":{"id":"3539229655408025","authorId":"3539229655408025","name":"旷世猛男","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5060505138cbcb3f792d17b7a4413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3539229655408025","idStr":"3539229655408025"},"htmlText":"穩了","listText":"穩了","text":"穩了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/623423829","repostId":1199803773,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":105286996,"gmtCreate":1671618766908,"gmtModify":1671618779863,"authorId":3587038191942835,"author":{"id":3587038191942835,"idStr":"3587038191942835","authorId":3587038191942835,"name":"康康的","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73a7001836b41194d4d68114ab8afcfd","vip":1,"currentWearingBadge":{"badgeId":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493-2","templateUuid":"1026c425416b44e0aac28c11a0848493","name":"Senior Tiger","description":"Join the tiger community for 1000 days","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0063fb68ea29c9ae6858c58630e182d5","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96c699a93be4214d4b49aea6a5a5d1a4","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b0e542a9ff77046ed69ef602bc105d","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":1,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.03.14","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":623423829,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span class=\"s1\">好</span>","text":"<span class=\"s1\">好</span>","html":"<span class=\"s1\">好</span>"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":40,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1199803773"}