Today (January 9), the A-share market continued its upward trajectory, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 37.45 points, a gain of 0.92%, marking the 16th consecutive positive closing session for the index.
Today's market movement was particularly noteworthy. On one hand, the index surpassed 4,120 points, successfully holding above the 4,100-point level, representing the highest point for the Shanghai Composite Index since July 27, 2015, and thus a new high for the past decade and a half. On the other hand, the daily trading volume for A-shares exceeded 3 trillion yuan, reaching 3,152.6 billion yuan (including 29.83 billion yuan from the Beijing Stock Exchange).
Precisely because of today's significant price surge on heavy volume—with the index reaching a new decade-high while daily turnover expanded dramatically—the A-share market experienced considerable intraday volatility. The leading commercial aerospace sector saw substantial pullbacks during the session, briefly sparking panic among investors, who grew concerned that the current market rally might be concluding.
Such investor apprehension is a natural reaction. After all, a 16-session winning streak for the Shanghai Composite Index is relatively rare in A-share market history. Coupled with the index hitting a new decade-high and a sharp increase in trading volume, this concern indicates a strengthening risk awareness among A-share market participants, which is a positive development.
However, the 4,100-point level is unlikely to represent the peak of this rally. While it stands as the highest point in nearly a decade, which may sound alarming, this peak is actually not particularly high. Over the past more than 10 years since the second half of 2015, the A-share market has largely been in a consolidation phase without experiencing any substantial bull runs. The Shanghai Composite Index has predominantly fluctuated and consolidated within the range of 2,600 to 3,700 points. Therefore, the 4,100-point level does not constitute a high position; indeed, it has even been referred to as the starting point for a bull market.
In reality, for the A-share market, 4,100 points is indeed not a high level. After all, back in 2007, the Shanghai Composite Index reached 6,124 points, and in 2015, it hit 5,178 points. Thus, 4,100 points doesn't even reach the chest level of the market's historical peaks. More than 18 years have passed, and the index remains below the chest level of its historical high—how can this be considered a peak?
During these 18 years, stock markets in many major countries and regions around the world have experienced significant bull markets. Taking the US Dow Jones Industrial Average as an example, its 2007 peak was 14,198 points, while its current high is 49,621 points—an increase of 35,423 points, representing a staggering rise of nearly 250%. In contrast, A-shares remain below the chest level of their 2007 high. Therefore, labeling 4,100 points as a peak for A-shares would be laughable.
Nevertheless, although 4,100 points may not be a high level, it is undeniable that A-shares have indeed risen by over 1,000 points. Calculating from the starting point of the "9.24" rally at 2,700 points, the overall market has gained more than 50%. Hence, it is necessary for investors to maintain a degree of rationality and risk awareness. This is especially true for some excessively speculative activity in popular sectors, where substantial investment risks have accumulated, warranting genuine caution from investors.
However, looking at the broader market overall, the risks appear generally controllable. After all, this rally has consistently featured heavyweight stocks setting the stage while popular sectors take the spotlight, resulting in severe polarization in individual stock speculation. In reality, many stocks are still trading near price levels seen around the 3,000-point index level, making these stocks relatively lower risk and safer.
Moreover, the 4,100-point level is broadly acceptable to various stakeholders. From the perspective of regulators, there remains support for stock market gains. This involves increasing residents' property income and boosting public consumption capacity. The "China Financial Stability Report (2025)" released by the People's Bank of China on December 26, 2025, emphasized the need to significantly increase the actual scale and proportion of various medium- to long-term funds invested in A-shares, striving to achieve a virtuous cycle of value preservation and appreciation for long-term capital, stable and healthy capital market operation, and high-quality real economic development. Clearly, even with the market reaching 4,000 points, regulators and higher authorities are still actively channeling funds into the stock market, demonstrating obvious supportive attitudes.
Although today's A-share trading volume broke through 3 trillion yuan, this does not represent the market's absolute peak volume. In fact, on October 8, 2024, A-share trading volume reached 3.49 trillion yuan (including 33.2 billion yuan from the Beijing Stock Exchange). Furthermore, during the 2015 bull market, the highest daily turnover reached 2.36 trillion yuan, when there were only 2,700 listed companies in the A-share market. Today, with the number of listed companies having doubled, a daily turnover of 3 trillion yuan, or even 3.49 trillion yuan, should not be considered the market's peak volume.
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