Good morning, here are the latest updates.
Trump Says US-Iran Deal Expected Within a Week
According to reports, on June 1st local time, former US President Donald Trump stated that he anticipates a deal with Iran within the "next week" to extend the current ceasefire arrangement and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump mentioned that related negotiations are progressing well and expressed optimism about reaching an agreement.
Iran: Will "Utilize All Capabilities to Defend Its Interests" If Necessary
Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on June 1st condemning the United States and Israel for their continued violations of the ceasefire agreement. It emphasized that a breach of the ceasefire on any front constitutes a violation of the entire arrangement and stated that Iran will "utilize all capabilities to defend its interests" if necessary.
The statement reiterated the ceasefire agreement reached on April 8th, which includes a ceasefire in Lebanon. However, it noted that the US has repeatedly violated the agreement by persistently harassing Iranian commercial vessels, while Israel continues to infringe upon Lebanon's territorial integrity and national sovereignty, resulting in thousands of Lebanese casualties, significant population displacement, and infrastructure damage.
The statement pointed out that a ceasefire breach on any front should be considered a violation of the entire arrangement. The US is responsible not only for its own violations but also for Israel's related actions.
It added that Iran has repeatedly warned of the serious consequences violations could have on regional peace and security. All consequences arising from the ongoing aggression by the US and Israel should be borne by them.
The statement stressed that Iran will, in accordance with the right to self-defense under international law, "utilize all capabilities to defend its interests" if necessary.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Claims Strikes on US-Israeli Vessel
On the evening of June 1st local time, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that, following an aggressive attack by US forces on an Iranian vessel in the Gulf of Oman, the IRGC Navy took retaliatory action, striking a vessel associated with US-Israeli interests named the "Sariska" using cruise missiles.
The IRGC Navy emphasized that any aggressive act by US forces in the region will be met with a firm response.
The statement did not specify the exact timing of the operation.
According to earlier reports from Iranian sources, on June 1st, a Panama-flagged cargo ship named "Sariska" was hit by an unidentified aerial object and exploded within Iraqi territorial waters, sustaining hull damage.
Iran's Quds Force Hints at Potential Control Over Mandab Strait Navigation
Commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, Esmail Ghaani, stated on June 1st that Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon and Gaza would prompt the regional "axis of resistance" to take further action. He hinted that navigation in the Mandab Strait might be controlled similarly to the Strait of Hormuz.
According to Iranian media reports, Ghaani said in a statement that, with US support, Israel's "provocative and aggressive actions" against Lebanon and Gaza are escalating regional tensions. The "axis of resistance" will further strengthen support for related fronts and work to "activate" other fronts.
Ghaani indicated that actions taken by regional resistance forces could affect the situation of important maritime passages, including the Mandab Strait, aligning it with the Strait of Hormuz. He stated that Israel should understand that its military operations in southern Lebanon and Gaza will face new rounds of "countermeasures" from resistance groups.
Israeli Prime Minister Speaks with Trump, Vows to Continue Operations in Southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated in a declaration on the evening of June 1st that during a call with former US President Donald Trump that day, he indicated Israel would strike targets in Beirut, Lebanon's capital, if Hezbollah "does not cease attacks" on Israeli towns and citizens.
Netanyahu added that Israel's "position remains unchanged," and the Israel Defense Forces will continue operations in southern Lebanon as planned.
Former President Trump posted on social media the same day, stating he had communicated separately with Netanyahu and Hezbollah, and that Israel would not deploy troops to Beirut, while Hezbollah had agreed to a ceasefire.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Drops to Lowest Level in Over Two Years
It was learned on June 1st local time that the Trump administration continues to release large volumes from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate the energy supply crisis triggered by US-Iran tensions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Data released by the US Department of Energy that day showed the SPR decreased by 8 million barrels last week, following reductions of 9.1 million and a record 9.9 million barrels in the preceding two weeks. As of now, US SPR inventory has fallen to 357.1 million barrels, the lowest level since January 2024.
Relevant experts noted that at the current release rate, the US SPR could drop below the low point of the Biden administration as early as next week, reaching its lowest level since 1983.
Since the outbreak of the latest US-Israel-Iran conflict, the US has released approximately 58 million barrels of crude oil, accounting for about 14% of the total SPR. Analysis suggests that the continuous release of the SPR will weaken the US's ability to respond to sudden supply disruptions, such as during hurricane season.
Can Tin Prices Break Out of Their Trading Range Amid the "Computing Metal" Hype?
Since mid-May, Shanghai tin and London tin prices have maintained high volatility, with the main Shanghai tin 2607 contract trading in a wide range of 400,000 to 440,000 yuan per ton. With factors like ongoing supply disruptions, booming AI demand, and fluctuating macroeconomic sentiment intertwining, why have tin prices struggled to break out of their range?
"The reason for tin prices oscillating in a wide range at high levels is that weak macroeconomic sentiment caps the upside, while rigid supply and demand provide a floor," an analyst from CITIC Securities Futures told reporters. Since May, the US-Iran negotiations have become protracted, coupled with high international energy prices and the new Federal Reserve Chair taking office, market risks of stagflation have intensified, concerns over monetary policy tightening have risen, continuously suppressing tin price increases.
An analyst from Founder CIFCO Futures explained that the recent dip and subsequent recovery in Shanghai tin prices were due to a resurgence in market sentiment driven by the chip boom, especially on the first trading day of June. Related reports on "computing metals" ignited bullish market sentiment, pushing Shanghai tin prices higher.
An analyst from Hongye Futures noted that due to operational restrictions, material approvals, and an explosion at a explosives factory, tin mining capacity in Myanmar's Manhsang region has only recovered to 40%-50% of pre-ban levels. It's important to note that May to July is Myanmar's rainy season, limiting open-pit mining and transportation, making short-term supply increases from the region difficult. Simultaneously, the closure of the Goma border crossing in the Democratic Republic of Congo has disrupted exports from the Bisie tin mine, which accounts for 6% of global supply. Coupled with Indonesia's refined tin exports nearly halving in April and the implementation of a proposed 20% high mining tax, the elasticity of medium-to-long-term global tin supply has been significantly weakened.
However, the Founder CIFCO analyst believes the tight tin ore supply situation is gradually easing and will present a pattern of "tight first, loose later." On one hand, policy obstacles to resuming production in Myanmar's Wa State have been cleared, and the region's capacity is expected to return to normal levels subsequently. On the other hand, increased imports of ore from Australia and South America into China, along with a steady recovery in domestic smelter operating rates and a slight increase in low processing fees, suggest a looser supply outlook for the tin market.
"Due to inefficient scrap recycling systems and policy uncertainties, secondary tin smelting operations are constrained. Additionally, public health events in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to cause disruptions, so the current tight short-term supply situation cannot be completely reversed," the analyst cautioned.
The Hongye Futures analyst stated that the AI industry boom is the most fundamental, rigid positive factor for tin prices. In recent years, tin consumption in computing hardware like AI servers, high-end GPUs, and HBM advanced packaging has significantly increased, and the industry has a high tolerance for elevated tin prices.
"The lead-acid battery industry, corresponding to tin chemicals, has entered its traditional off-season, with weak demand. Meanwhile, China's tinplate exports have declined sharply, further exacerbating the demand divergence," the Founder CIFCO analyst added.
Looking ahead, the Hongye Futures analyst believes short-term supply disruptions in major overseas producing countries will continue to dominate tin price movements. However, considering weak seasonal demand, tin prices may remain range-bound at high levels. If major producing countries subsequently release capacity beyond expectations, it could prompt a rapid price correction. In the medium to long term, with limited elasticity in global tin ore supply and sustained demand growth from AI and new energy sectors, the price center for tin is expected to shift steadily higher.
The Founder CIFCO analyst stated that although tin market supply is gradually becoming more ample, periodic overseas supply disruptions persist, and tin's strategic attributes continue to be highlighted. In the short term, the tin market's supply-demand relationship will remain tightly balanced. However, factors like escalating geopolitical risks, rising inflation expectations, and a weakening US dollar index will continue to cap the upside for tin prices.
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