Anthropic will disclose its third-quarter financial data to institutional investors this Wednesday, a move that marks a critical step for the AI giant toward what could become the largest IPO in history.
On Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the matter, CNBC reported that Anthropic (name_zh: Anthropic) will gather a group of potential institutional investors at its San Francisco headquarters to publicly reveal its third-quarter revenue figures for the first time. The disclosure will help company executives and underwriting banks gauge investor interest and test the market's reaction to its latest financial data.
The timing is notably sensitive. Just last week, OpenAI (name_zh: OpenAI) told existing investors its latest annualized revenue stood at $50 billion, below the widely circulated $70 billion figure, sparking confusion that dragged down semiconductor stocks and the Nasdaq index broadly. Meanwhile, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said at a conference on Monday that as interest rates climb, access to capital could become the biggest constraint facing AI companies, further weighing on sentiment in the AI sector and extending the overnight decline in chip stocks into Tuesday.
Laying the groundwork for an IPO valuation
According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic is advancing a listing plan with a valuation of roughly $2 trillion, with revenue potentially surpassing $100 billion by the end of this year. If achieved, that valuation would exceed SpaceX's historic listing scale and become the largest IPO ever.
Anthropic has already filed a confidential application with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the listing, but the S-1 document has not yet been made public. The company plans to list in November, though people familiar with the matter could not confirm a specific date.
The Q3 data disclosed to institutional investors this time will provide the outside world with a more accurate window to assess Anthropic's growth trajectory and profitability. It remains unclear whether Anthropic will include revenue from cloud partners in its accounting methodology—precisely the core controversy that triggered market misreading of OpenAI's data last week.
A new variable stirring market nerves
Revenue figures from private AI companies are having an impact on the broader capital markets that exceeds expectations. Last week's OpenAI episode fully demonstrated that a single accounting adjustment is enough to trigger a chain reaction in the market.
OpenAI's updated $50 billion revenue figure to investors excluded revenue from cloud partners, which according to people familiar with the matter does not reflect any change on the demand side. Yet the market's misreading still caused notable volatility.
Whether Anthropic's disclosure this time can avoid similar information confusion will largely depend on the transparency and consistency of its data methodology. Investors will pay close attention to how it recognizes revenue in order to reasonably price the company ahead of the IPO.
The IPO window faces pressure
The market environment is one of the biggest uncertainties facing Anthropic's listing. Persistently rising interest rates are shaking some of the foundations of the AI trade, and underwriting banks are closely tracking changes in investors' risk appetite for growth stocks and AI assets.
Hock Tan's remarks further intensified market concerns about the sustainability of AI financing. He pointed out that against the backdrop of rising interest rates, access to capital will become the core bottleneck constraining AI companies' development. That judgment dealt another blow to already pressured chip stocks.
Against this backdrop, Anthropic's investor meeting this week is not merely a routine disclosure of financial data, but a critical exchange of signals between company management and the market—the outcome of which will directly affect the pace and pricing strategy of the IPO.
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