Hua Chuang Securities released a research report indicating that in January 2026, the combined hog inventory of 18 sample pig farming enterprises, including Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. and Wens Foodstuff Group Co., Ltd., reached 18.0215 million head. This represents a year-on-year increase of 12.54% but a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% compared to December 2025. Regarding the average slaughter weight, the average weight of market hogs from 9 sample enterprises, including Muyuan and Wens, was 123.71 kilograms.
At the industry level, as of February 12th, according to Yongyi Consulting data, the profit for farrow-to-finish enterprises selling market hogs was -52.94 RMB per head, turning negative again since the end of last year. Conversely, the profit per head for selling piglets was 75 RMB, marking the fifth consecutive week of profitability.
The main views of Hua Chuang Securities are as follows:
**Inventory Volume: Combined inventory of 18 sample enterprises in January increased 12.54% YoY but decreased 11.15% MoM** The combined hog inventory of 18 sample enterprises, including Muyuan and Wens, was 18.0215 million head in January. This is a 12.54% increase year-on-year but an 11.15% decrease compared to December 2025. The top five enterprises by inventory volume were Muyuan Foods (7.009 million head), Wens Foodstuff Group (3.3842 million head), New Hope Liuhe (1.3982 million head), DEKON AGR (1.0424 million head), and Zhengbang Technology (0.9275 million head). The top five enterprises by year-on-year inventory growth rate were Kingkey Smart Agriculture, Dongrui Shares, Zhengbang Technology, Kingsino Technology, and Julong Animal Husbandry, with growth rates of 79.87%, 78.31%, 62.32%, 60.56%, and 59.40% respectively.
Regarding piglet sales, 10 sample enterprises, including Wens and Shennong Group, sold a combined 1.5332 million piglets in January. Excluding New Hope Liuhe (due to undisclosed data for the same period last year), the remaining 9 sample enterprises saw a combined piglet sales volume increase of 113.99% year-on-year, but a decrease of 24.77% month-on-month compared to December 2025. By sales volume, Zhengbang Technology, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Tianbang Food ranked top three in piglet sales, with volumes of 530,500 head, 420,600 head, and 290,200 head respectively. The proportion of piglet sales to total hog sales for the month was 57.20%, 12.43%, and 42.55% for these companies, respectively.
**Average Selling Price: Average market hog price for 15 sample enterprises in January was 12.58 RMB/kg, down 19.30% YoY but up 8.83% MoM** The average selling price for market hogs from 15 sample enterprises, including Muyuan and Wens, was 12.58 RMB per kilogram in January. This represents a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but a month-on-month increase of 8.83%. The five enterprises with the highest selling prices were Dongrui Shares (13.33 RMB/kg), Li Hua Co., Ltd. (13.12 RMB/kg), Kingkey Smart Agriculture (12.84 RMB/kg), Wens Foodstuff Group (12.75 RMB/kg), and DEKON AGR (12.74 RMB/kg). Tiankang Biological had the lowest selling price at 11.78 RMB/kg. Among the 15 sample enterprises, 7 had selling prices above the average (Wens, Julong Animal Husbandry, Huatong Shares, Dongrui Shares, Kingkey Smart Agriculture, Li Hua Co., Ltd., DEKON AGR), while 8 had prices below the average (Muyuan, Shennong Group, New Hope Liuhe, Zhengbang Technology, Tianbang Food, Tiankang Biological, Kingsino Technology, Dabeinong).
**Average Slaughter Weight: Average market hog weight for 4 comparable sample enterprises in January was 121.41 kg** The average weight of market hogs from 9 sample enterprises, including Muyuan and Wens, was 123.71 kilograms in January. For better data comparability, considering the 4 enterprises of Muyuan, New Hope Liuhe, Huatong Shares, and Li Hua Co., Ltd., the average market hog weight was 121.41 kilograms. This is a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42%. Shennong Group had the highest average sales weight at 129.77 kg, followed by Huatong Shares at 129.49 kg. Other enterprises with weights above the average included Julong Animal Husbandry (126.27 kg) and Wens Foodstuff Group (124.33 kg). Three enterprises had weights below the average: both Muyuan and Li Hua Co., Ltd. at 119.93 kg, and New Hope Liuhe with the lowest at 116.29 kg. Furthermore, enterprises that reduced their slaughter weight in January compared to December included Muyuan (down 1.20%) and Li Hua Co., Ltd. (down 0.24%).
**Pig Farming Industry: Breeding profits turn negative again before holiday, hog weights remain high historically** At the industry level, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national average selling price for market hogs was 12.0 RMB/kg as of February 10th, down 5.5% month-on-month and 20.0% year-on-year. According to Yongyi Consulting, the selling price for weaned piglets was 365 RMB per head as of February 10th, down 0.3% month-on-month and 30.2% year-on-year. As of February 12th, Yongyi Consulting monitoring showed that the profit for farrow-to-finish enterprises selling market hogs was -52.94 RMB per head, turning negative again since the end of last year. The profit per head for selling piglets was 75 RMB, marking the fifth consecutive week of profitability.
Regarding weight, as of February 12th, the average industry slaughter weight was 126.05 kg per head, declining for the third consecutive week but still remaining at a high level for the same period historically. Separately, according to China Agricultural Information Network, the average post-slaughter weight in 16 provinces was 88.13 kg, approaching the low point of the past four years. Additionally, as of early February, the average utilization rate of secondary finishing pens across provinces was 19.5%, an increase of 6.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year (adjusted for the Spring Festival). As of February 12th, the frozen product inventory rate was 17.18%, representing the ninth consecutive week of destocking since mid-December, but it still remains at a historically high level for the period.
**Investment Advice: Bottom-fishing with foresight, prioritizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale** The valuation level of the pig farming sector is currently at a relatively low point, offering sufficient safety margins. Furthermore, as the marginal contribution of feed raw material costs to cost reduction weakens, the replacement of breeding stock lines nears completion, and disease prevention stabilizes, the industry's efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency are entering a deeper phase. Looking at the cost curve, leading enterprises like Muyuan are gradually amplifying their cost advantages, possessing stronger profit certainty and are expected to continue delivering excess returns. Therefore, from a stock selection perspective, it is advisable to focus on stable, high-quality pig enterprises such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), DEKON AGR (02419), and Shennong Group (605296.SH). For more elastic opportunities, consider companies with good potential for external development, such as Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ).
**Risk Warning** Fluctuations in live pig prices; outbreaks of large-scale, uncontrollable epidemics; major food safety incidents; systemic macroeconomic risks; significant grain price fluctuations caused by trade friction.
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