Tesla and Nio have sold off, but the EV party is just getting started and China is key, say these analysts

MW UPDATE: Tesla and Nio have sold off, but the EV party is just getting started and China is key, say these analysts

Jack Denton

Chinese EV companies are "just scratching the surface" of total addressable demand in China, Wedbush analysts said.

Electric-vehicle stocks have lost their charge in recent weeks, with Tesla shares down more than 23% over the past month.

According to tech analysts Daniel Ives and Strecker Backe of investment firm Wedbush, the EV stock slump has been largely caused by the more general "risk-off" mood in markets, compounded by sales weakness in the key Chinese market in January.

But investors have no reason to unbuckle yet, the analysts said, because "the EV party is just beginning," they wrote in a note on Thursday.

Also read:Tesla's market share in Europe keeps crumbling, as China reclaims top spot in global EV race

While the global chip shortage has "modestly impacted production capacity" at the likes of Tesla $(TSLA)$ and Nio $(NIO)$, the Wedbush analysts believe this will be normalized throughout the course of this month.

Tesla stock has also been hurt by contained recalls in China, which has drawn the ire of regulators in Beijing, they said.

And shares in Nio slipped after the company's recent results. In large part this was because investors were disappointed by the growth trajectory for the first quarter of the year, despite a 100% year-over-year increase, Ives and Backe said.

Essential reading:Tesla is in decline, SUVs are king, and more insights from this critical electric-vehicle market

The selloff in EV stocks has mostly been focused on Chinese companies, the Wedbush analysts said, pointing to Xpeng $(XPEV)$ and Li Auto $(LI)$ stocks, as well as U.S. electric-vehicle battery company QuantumScape $(QS)$, which is backed by Bill Gates and Volkswagen , among others.

Despite the recent headwinds, Wedbush remains bullish on electric-vehicle stocks, projecting a $5 trillion market opportunity over the next 10 years. This is based on a growth in EV market penetration from 3% today to 10% by 2025, with much more to come.

The analysts point to established auto makers, like Volvo , GM $(GM)$, and Ford $(F)$, getting into the electric-vehicle business as substantive evidence that there is pent-up global demand for EV technology.

More:Audi is betting on the luxury market in a new electric-vehicle venture with China's oldest car maker

So look beyond just auto stocks, Wedbush advises, to the wider ecosystem, which includes QuantumScape as well as other companies exposed to the sector, like sustainable battery recycler Li-Cycle--which intends to list in New York via a merger with Peridot Acquisition $(PDAC)$. The analysts also project that there will be a "green tidal wave" driven by President Joe Biden's administration, with tax credits and incentives around electric-vehicles.

In the short term, however, Ives and Backe say that China will be "the linchpin of growth" for the EV market, with "eye popping demand" in 2021 and 2022 giving Tesla, with its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, a major competitive advantage.

Domestic players Nio, BYD, Xpeng, and Li Auto are also "firing on all cylinders and just scratching the surface" of total addressable demand in China, the analyst said.

-Jack Denton; 415-439-6400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

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March 04, 2021 09:52 ET (14:52 GMT)

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