* Major U.S. indexes edge higher at the open
* Euro STOXX 600 up ~0.3%
* Dollar, gold rise; crude falls
* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.62%
March 15 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
WILL THE DUTCH VOTE AFFECT EU POLICY? (0919 EDT/1319 GMT)
What is the EU public debt in the post-Covid era going to be about? Could it be Dutch PM Mark Rutte, the ‘frugalist’, against Italy's PM Mario Draghi, the advocate of a fiscal union?
There is no straight answer to this question, but fixed income-analysts are concerned about EU sovereign debt, while they seem to agree this week’s general elections in the Netherlands could change the scenario about EU fiscal rules.
Rutte, who is likely to win a mandate to lead a new government, “could indeed morph into the adversary of Mario Draghi,” according to DZ Bank.
“There are two clear camps: above all Italy, along with Italian EU currency Commissioner Gentiloni, is pushing for the EU fiscal rules to be suspended beyond 2021, resistance is coming from parts of core Europe,” DZ Bank says.
A large number of parties winning seats in the Dutch Parliament will mean that more time is “required to agree on the policy platform,” Citi analysts say.
“There is a risk of a slight shift to the left in terms of economic policies, not only domestically with less focus on short-term fiscal rectitude, but also at the EU level.”
“The Netherlands might have an opportunity to forge a closer relationship with Paris and Berlin, especially after Brexit, which might require toning down the rhetoric,” they add.
Dutch voters look set to give Prime Minister Mark Rutte's conservative VVD Party a fresh four-year mandate in a national election on March 15-17.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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DOW INDUSTRIALS: BRACING FOR A BIG TEST? (0900 EDT/1300 GMT)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing what may be a major trip wire on the charts:
The blue-chip average closed Friday at 32,778.64, putting it only about 1% shy of a log-scale monthly resistance line drawn from its 1929 top. This 92-year line resides around 33,100 for the month of March.
Of note, highs in early and late 2018, as well as early 2020, occurred when the Dow came within 5%-9% of this line, so this is the closest approach yet.
And with CBT e-mini Dow futures suggesting around 50 points of upside at the open, the DJI can come closer to tagging the line in early trade.
Thus, the blue-chip average may be bracing for a big test. That said, a momentum issue remains. Although the monthly RSI is finally mustering enough strength to move into overbought territory for the first time in 2-1/2 years, it is still lagging. It is failing to confirm the Dow's record highs given that it remains well below its 2018 tops.
Meanwhile, Dow opening strength on Monday would be coming in the wake of one wild week for the Nasdaq .
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR MONDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0900 EDT/1300 GMT - CLICK HERE:
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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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