LIVE MARKETS-Bulls stampede, Bears flee

Reuters2021-04-09

* Dow, S&P 500 rise slightly; Nasdaq dips

* Financials lead S&P sector gainers; Energy biggest loser

* Euro STOXX 600 index up 0.1%

* Dollar up; gold down, crude dips

* U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield ~1.65%

April 9 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com

BULLS STAMPEDE, BEARS FLEE (1136 EDT/1536 GMT)

Optimism over the short-term direction of the U.S. stock market charged to its highest level in more than three years in the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey. With this, pessimism fell to a 2-year low.

AAII reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, surged 11.1 percentage points to 56.9%. Bullish sentiment was last higher on Jan. 3, 2018 (59.8%). Optimism is above its historical average of 38.0% for the 19th week out of the past 21 weeks.

Bearish sentiment fell 2.8 percentage points to 20.4%. Bearish sentiment was last lower on April 24, 2019 (20.2%). Pessimism is below its historical average of 30.5% for the ninth time this year.

Neutral sentiment slid 8.3 percentage points to 22.7%. Neutral sentiment was last lower on Nov. 11, 2020 (19.3%). Neutral sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.5% for the 60th time out of the past 64 weeks.

AAII noted that bullish sentiment is unusually high, and both neutral and bearish sentiment are unusually low. AAII added that, historically, both above-average readings for bullish sentiment and below-average readings for bearish and neutral sentiment have been followed by below-average six- and 12-month returns for the S&P 500 index.

With these changes, the bull-bear spread jumped to +36.5 from +22.6 last week . The spread is at its highest level since early-January 2018. Of note, later that month, the S&P 500 topped, and promptly slid about 12% over a 2-week period:

(Terence Gabriel)

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PPI: INFLATION HEATS UP WITH THE WEATHER (1010 EDT/1410 GMT)

Signs of rising inflation on Tuesday provided further evidence that the U.S. economy is heating up as it emerges from the pandemic recession.

Producer prices (PPI) , or the prices U.S. goods-makers get for their wares at the factory door, grew by 1% in March, according to the Labor Department.

This was twice the speed of February's growth, which analysts expected to hold steady at 0.5%.

Supply chain disruptions have sent the prices companies pay for materials spiking, and in turn, companies appear to be passing those costs along.

Core PPI - which strips out food, energy, and trade services - grew by 3.1% year-on-year, a significant acceleration from the 2.2% reading from the prior month.

"The fiscally stimulated revival of consumer demand and strong base effects will lead to faster annual inflation rates in the spring," writes Mahir Rasheed, associate economist at Oxford Economics. "However, these should be temporary dynamics, and we continue to expect the Fed to remain accommodative through mid-2023."

Indeed, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the central bank is far more concerned about the recent uptick in COVID-19 infections than inflationary pressures.

Still, producer prices now join other major inflation indicators above the Fed's average annual 2% target, fueling concerns that the economy could overheat as it bounces back.

The Fed's preferred inflation yardstick is core PCE.

In other economic data, wholesale inventories grew in February at 0.1 percentage point faster pace than previously reported, rising by 0.6%, according to the Commerce Department.

Wall Street was mixed in late morning trading, with the Dow and the S&P in positive territory, but the Nasdaq was in the red as rising Treasury yields hit interest-sensitive stocks.

All three major U.S. indexes were on track for weekly gains, however.

(Stephen Culp)

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S&P 500 UP EARLY; HEALTHCARE SHOWS STRENGTH (1010 EDT/1410 GMT)

The S&P 500 and Dow are up in early trading on Friday, with healthcare among the top-performing sectors.

Bank shares are also up ahead of their quarterly earnings next week.

Nasdaq , however, is down slightly, with Tesla

shares declining and among the biggest drags on the index.

Here is the early U.S. market snapshot:

(Caroline Valetkevitch)

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NASDAQ 100 FUTURES: CHALLENGING HIGHS (0845 EDT/1245 GMT)

With the Dow and S&P 500 making new record highs this month, Nasdaq indexes have been noticeable laggards.

That said, the Nasdaq 100 index ended Thursday less than 0.5% from its Feb. 12 closing high, and less than 1% from its Feb. 16 intraday peak. The Nasdaq Composite is just a bit further off the mark, ending down around 2% or so from its commensurate levels.

In any event, at one point in overnight trade Friday, CME Nasdaq 100 Futures hit a high of 13,841.75, putting them above their Feb. 12 closing high of 13,792.25, while nearly tagging their 13,888 Feb. 16 intraday peak.

Since then, however, they have reversed into negative territory:

Of note, despite flirting with its highs, weekly momentum is noticeably lagging. Although, rising, the RSI is well shy of the 70.00 overbought threshold, as well as its early 2021 highs.

Of note, just since early 2020, weekly momentum divergence, or much weaker oscillator readings on a NQcv1 near-touch of a prior weekly closing high, have preceded sharp reversals in the futures.

Thus, traders will be watching closely for how the futures behave vs their February highs, and whether the RSI can confirm any breakout. Any downturn may solidify a bearish setup on the oscillator.

Meanwhile, recent Nasdaq strength has no doubt been underpinned by large-cap tech and FANGs. Indeed, the NYSE FANG+TM index has risen 9-straight days.

That's its longest winning streak since its 11-day record run from Feb. 1 to Feb. 16 of this year. NYFANG topped Feb. 16, and tumbled around 17% in just 13 trading days.

(Terence Gabriel)

*****

FOR FRIDAY'S LIVE MARKETS' POSTS PRIOR TO 0845 EDT/1245 GMT - CLICK HERE:

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(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

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Comments

  • KW1
    2021-04-10
    KW1
    Good
  • BlurBlurs
    2021-04-10
    BlurBlurs
    Who’s permabull with me? Like this comment, please!
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