与前2次都不一样，这一轮大宗商品飙涨有点特殊

智通财经2021-05-18

与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

东方波澜
2021-05-18
东方波澜
hi

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2136957700?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59173f284ebbaeca7a7533691a2e3051","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-05-18 10:44","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2136957700","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"与前2次都不一样，这一轮大宗商品飙涨有点特殊","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。\n\n根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>与前2次都不一样，这一轮大宗商品飙涨有点特殊</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n与前2次都不一样，这一轮大宗商品飙涨有点特殊\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-05-18 10:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。\n\n根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"000979.SH","symbol_name":"大宗商品","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/476958.html","article_id":"2136957700","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/59173f284ebbaeca7a7533691a2e3051"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2136957700","pubTimestamp":1621305848,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161715":"大宗商品","000979.SH":"大宗商品"},"translate_title":"Unlike the previous two, this round of commodity surge is a bit special","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb44917da38006a577c020d073e3d961","symbols_score_info":{"161715":0.9,"000979.SH":0.9},"content_text":"与2008年和2011年大宗商品价格反弹不同，近来大宗商品价格持续飙升，但澳大利亚等主要大宗商品出口国的国债收益率和货币波动不大。同样，美联储较为看重的通胀预期指标也与原材料价格走势脱节。\n造成这种现象的最主要原因是央行的信誉。以美联储为首，各大央行表示长期将维持低利率，认为高通胀只是暂时的。既然央行承诺将维持宽松政策，这使得投资者也不敢贸然反向操作。\n\n根据美联储的衡量标准，价格增长预期上升，但仍然是良性的。摩根大通驻墨尔本全球市场策略师Kerry Craig表示，“这次大宗商品价格重大变化也是因为央行政策，目前，超宽松的货币政策使汇率成压，否则，在大宗商品上涨周期，汇率也会有较大涨幅。\n澳元和纽元成为了无可争辩的落后货币，这两种主要货币的命运很大程度上取决于中国经济所消耗的大宗商品。过去三个月里，澳元和纽元都只上涨了不到0.5%。与此同时，加拿大央行暗示可能收回货币宽松计划，加元已飙升近5%。\n上周，澳元、纽元领跌G10货币，美国CPI和PPI数据均意外上扬，在中国公布强劲的PPI数据后，全球通胀预期进一步升温。然而，PPI数据公布后，市场反应相对平静，5年期和10年期国债收益率随美元走弱而回落。\n\n美联储新推出的“共同通胀预期”指标目前正徘徊在2%左右，官员们希望看到这一水平在一段时间内超出预期。与此同时，在供应中断和需求激增的情况下，铜、棉花、橡胶、木材以及半导体等不同材料的价格也在加速上涨。\n这种央行行动和经济数据的不一致折射出当前时代央行经济调控方式正在发生变化。目前美联储致力于让经济过热，这在一定程度上让市场感到不安，因为这意味着美联储将改变以往战略：先发制人抑制通胀。\n这一信息正在传递给澳元和纽元交易员，而对其他市场参与者来说，货币政策收紧的暗示正让他们有理由蜂拥而至。\nGSFM驻悉尼投资顾问Stephen Miller表示，“加拿大央行和挪威央行是发达国家唯一明确表示正在考虑退出宽松政策的央行。”加拿大CI金融公司旗下的一家分支机构表示，“澳大利亚央行一直在大力鼓吹，在铁矿石价格飙升的情况下保持澳元走低。”\n仔细观察盈亏平衡利率，可以进一步证明投资者基本上没有对通胀担忧采取行动。美国10年期盈亏平衡利率已跃升至8年高点，但从长期趋势来看，这并没有发出明显的通胀失控信息。\n美联储前官员Roberto Perli等为首的Cornerstone Macro分析师在5月11日的报告中写道，如果潜在的通货膨胀是触发因素，那么即期和远期的盈亏平衡通胀率预期应该向上倾斜。但现在曲线是倒挂的，说明市场押注通胀是暂时情况。\n展望未来，原材料价格持续走高以及薪资水平可能进一步上涨的暗示可能会开始影响美联储所传达的信息效力，为投资者做出更多反应提供动力。\n华侨银行经济学家Howie Lee在5月11日的报告中表示，“金属价格近期新高可能仅仅是开始”。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":195494725,"gmtCreate":1621306100067,"gmtModify":1704355497107,"author":{"id":"3570426589852260","authorId":"3570426589852260","authorIdStr":"3570426589852260","name":"东方波澜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1401dd1537f16a11750719f2334a1ea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570426589852260"},"htmlText":"hi","listText":"hi","text":"hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/195494725","repostId":2136957700,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2136957700"}