海底捞跌入海底

观察者网2021-06-22

6月21日，#海底捞市值蒸发超2400亿港元#登上微博热搜，继上周市值跌破2000亿港元之后，海底捞今日股价再度跌超5%，四个月市值跌超2500亿港元。往前追溯一周，6月15日，开盘后的海底捞股价大跌近7%，至37.05港元，创出新低，盘中最低跌至1964亿港元。二级市场“败退”背后，是海底捞步步下跌的翻台率。根据海底捞年报数据显示，2019年海底捞餐厅一线和二线城市的翻台率分别为4.7/4.9...

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Comments

Hannee
2021-06-22
Hannee
Why hdl drooped so much? China unlocked now. Consuming should boost up!
- Hannee:
  What do you mean ?
- Hannee:
  I think i type in english. When it translate to chinese, the meaning totally Difference. Sorry about that!
- Savage_Never:
  做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹

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的测算，海底捞单店守住盈亏的平衡线为翻台率3次/天。因此，跌破3次/天也表示海底捞单店处于亏损或者微利状态。\n凭借着24小时营业和多业态服务的经营模式，海底捞迅速填补了中国夜生活市场的空缺，并制造属于海底捞自己的火锅业服务标准。在新消费趋势下获得许多食客好评，这也让海底捞有底气持续扩张，加快分店开设速度。\n然而，随着海底捞2020年财报的发布，外界也进一步窥探到这家火锅巨企在疫情之下的阵面，其市值更是从巅峰时期的4500亿港元跌至今日的不到2000亿港元。\n市值跌超2500亿港元背后，我们应该如何看待这样一家企业？\n01\n海底泡沫有多大\n市值跌下神坛的海底捞无疑正在经历着前所未有的至暗时刻。\n4500亿港元的故事是资本市场对于海底捞的估价，但这真的“名副其实”吗？从股价增长来看，在疫情大面积影响餐饮业情况下，海底捞确实实现了逆势增长，增长背后是二级市场的看好，同时也意味着对海底捞门店快速扩张的肯定，毕竟开店数量的增加往往意味着总营收的增加。门店数目越多，规模效应就越明显。\n数据显示，截至2020年年底，海底捞餐厅数为1298家，相比上年同期的768家增加了530家。其中1205家位于中国大陆，93家位于中国大陆以外14个国家和地区。\n2017年～2019年，是海底捞的“黄金时代”。这些年海底捞的门店数量以41%的年复合增长率进行扩张，整体餐厅翻台率始终保持高位，达到平均4.9次/天。翻台率的坚挺是营收和利润持续增长的最强保障，2019年业绩报告显示，海底捞全年实现收入265.56亿元，同比增长了56.5%，净利润23.47亿元，同比增长42.3%。\n\n▲图：海底捞官微\n从2019年即以前海底捞的扩张速度来看，即便是处于高速增长，利润和翻台率依旧没有下跌。而到了2020年，海底捞营业收入为286.14亿元，比2019年增长7.8%；年内溢利3.10亿元，比2019年下降86.8%?。海底捞在公告中表示，餐厅网络拓展是整体收入增长的主要驱动力。2020年海底捞营收的增长背后，是开店持续低效的大额投入。\n在股价和市值“疯狂”上涨背后，海底捞的泡沫也开始逐渐膨胀。\n疫情袭来，危机席卷了整个餐饮业。此时的海底捞并没有叫停原定的门店增开计划，而在市场需求紧缩背景下，短时间内大面积开店，不仅拉低了同区域其他门店的翻台率，新开分店本身大概率也难短期内盈利。同时，就海底捞本身规模来看，一二线城市餐饮需求最强大的区域在2020年及以前已经完成了覆盖。在深入一二线城市非中心领域和三四线城市过程中，海底捞有些过于着急。\n对于这样快速想要占领空白市场的巨头来说，今天资本市场的反应似乎说明了一切。\n02\n火锅还是服务\n当我们谈起海底捞，想起的第一个词是“火锅”还是“服务”？\n服务几乎成了海底捞的代名词。但海底捞主体业务所处的餐饮市场与服务业的规律却又大相径庭。\n火锅的市场规模可达万亿，海底捞的市场份额为6%，一方面，随着火锅业垂直赛道不断细分，除了海底捞，重庆火锅、潮汕牛肉火锅、牛蛙火锅也成为热门品类，另一方面，品牌数目的增多导致业内呈现多样化趋势，从火锅口味上很难以差异化优势取胜。\n纵观海底捞近几年的发展，火锅业背后，服务业的优势已然成为海底捞的第二级增长点，也是在扩张中保持领先的制胜法宝。“宾至如归”的服务为海底捞赢得了良好口碑，并保持着高于行业水准的用户粘性。\n\n▲图：海底捞官微\n然而，大规模扩张下沉市场带来了更多不同层次的客群用户，在提供服务过程中不可控性也增加了。今年5月，一则男子在海底捞内吃出蟑螂迅速上了头版头条，虽然最后被证明是男子自导自演的栽赃陷害，但一时不明真相的受众依然迅速将矛头直指海底捞，这也说明依托服务的海底捞，不得不随时面对外界时不时的“名誉挑战”。未来，面对更加多样化受众，如何去处理非典型客群，这也会为海底捞带来业绩之外的压力。\n另一方面，门店扩张也带来了管理难度的加大。过去海底捞优质化的餐饮服务已经成为了行业标杆，随着分店的开张，管理质量能否继续保持有待考究。网络上，抱怨“海底捞服务不如从前”的用户不在少数，想要继续保证服务水平和质量，海底捞不得不进一步加强管理上的投入。\n可以说，以服务为卖点始终只能锦上添花，扎实的产品质量才能保证企业的可持续发展。尤其是餐饮行业，做常青树本身已然十分困难，品牌层出不穷，大众的口味时刻也在变化，用服务吸引用户到店是海底捞的长板，但在火锅市场趋于饱和，疫情冲击大背景下，仅仅只有服务，不仅无法满足受众，资本也不会长期买单。\n03\n海底捞，何以捞\n估值腰斩，业绩下滑，海底捞的“双杀”困境如何解决？\n在疫情期间逆势扩张更像是海底捞在餐饮市场的一场豪赌。短线来看，开店确实影响了资金流和翻台率，让海底捞的“财报”没有那么好看，估值也颇受影响。但长期来看，在疫情复苏的大背景下，这也不失为一种长期策略。\n然而，比起资金投入带来的困境，品牌重新定位才是当代最紧要的。就目前现状来看，处于增长期的海底捞估值仍然在高位。彭博数据显示，1999～2007年是星巴克的高速增长时期，估值中枢为57倍。海底捞过去三年的估值中枢约为242倍，因此尽管市值腰斩，但这也只是让海底捞的市盈率回到了相对正常的高位。\n业界普遍认为，此次回调很可能是永久性的。海底捞已经过了快速扩张带来的红利期，在固有的经营模式下，翻台率回升和盈利能否回涨目前仍是未知数。而这也就意味着海底捞需要寻找第二增长曲线。\n\n▲图：海底捞官微\n另一方面，新的入局者也在给海底捞带来新的压力。哥老官、小龙坎、八合里等乘着网红经济走红的火锅店，也在不断对海底捞的霸主地位发起挑战，把目光放到更宽广的整个餐饮领域，各个餐饮品牌也在层出不穷的涌现。\n从现在海底捞呈交的答卷来看，关于海底捞的未来，外界并没有看出明确的答案。在食品安全，服务品质等被外界质疑的因素外，海底捞在擅长的服务领域也呈现出缓慢失势的状态，并且目前暂时也没有新的业务驱动其更快速的发展，未来能否持续增长也是外界颇为关注的焦点。\n想要持续坐稳餐饮第一股，并非想象中容易，除了必须要有过硬的产品和实力。如何调动起现行的餐饮矩阵，实现新的业绩增长正成为是海底捞的重中之重。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":129024938,"gmtCreate":1624346233424,"gmtModify":1703834058673,"author":{"id":"3557531278630339","authorId":"3557531278630339","authorIdStr":"3557531278630339","name":"Hannee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a23162818c1e2b051d79f5521b6ee57","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3557531278630339"},"htmlText":"Why 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China unlocked now. Consuming should boost up!&nbsp;","listText":"Why hdl drooped so&nbsp;much? China unlocked now. Consuming should boost up!&nbsp;","text":"Why hdl drooped so much? China unlocked now. Consuming should boost up!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/129024938","repostId":2145185037,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4954686,"gmtCreate":1624362995496,"gmtModify":1663229715633,"authorId":3557531278630339,"author":{"id":3557531278630339,"authorId":3557531278630339,"name":"Hannee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a23162818c1e2b051d79f5521b6ee57","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":129024938,"type":1,"supId":4952444,"prevId":0,"content":"What do you mean ?","text":"What do you mean ?","html":"What do you mean ?"},{"id":4954722,"gmtCreate":1624363146857,"gmtModify":1663229714962,"authorId":3557531278630339,"author":{"id":3557531278630339,"authorId":3557531278630339,"name":"Hannee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a23162818c1e2b051d79f5521b6ee57","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":129024938,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"I think i type in english. When it translate to chinese, the meaning totally Difference. Sorry about that!","text":"I think i type in english. When it translate to chinese, the meaning totally Difference. Sorry about that!","html":"I think i type in english. When it translate to chinese, the meaning totally Difference. Sorry about that!"},{"id":4952444,"gmtCreate":1624349715058,"gmtModify":1635252199846,"authorId":3572046493348009,"author":{"id":3572046493348009,"authorId":3572046493348009,"name":"Savage_Never","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8c5d3c6800ec12c32423a3100658845","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":129024938,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹","text":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹","html":"做任务嘿嘿嘿求赞求评论蟹蟹"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.3","shortVersion":"4.28.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2145185037"}