美联储“加息”5基点，市场就要闹“钱荒”？

华尔街见闻2021-06-21

上周，美联储意外官宣“加息”，将联邦基金利率区间的上限——超额准备金利率（IOER）从0.10%上调至0.15%，并将联邦基金利率区间的下限——隔夜逆回购利率（ON RRP）从零上调至0.05%。在纽约联储前工作人员、现瑞信回购市场专家Zoltan Pozsar看来，美联储重新定价RRP将迅速成为美国银行体系所要面临的一个大问题：银行体系将从资本约束的境地（存款涌入，但只能贷给美联储）转向负债...

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chokim
2021-06-21
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RRP也从一个大型银行一直相当排斥的、为存款提供利率下限的被动工具，变成了会吸走银行想要保留的存款的主动工具。\n\n如此一来，会发生什么？\n瑞信警告称，在美联储积极消耗储备金之后，大多数金融机构会突然发现自己的日内储备金变得非常少，他们就不得不使用外汇互换协议等美联储的其他融资工具来保持偿付能力，最终，市场可能会陷入另一场2019年式的回购危机。\n当然，这个过程也并非一蹴而就，美联储冲销储备金的后果还需要市场用几周时间来观察。\n不过，根据瑞信的预测，情况或许不会很乐观：部分无法应对资金外流的银行会从联邦住房贷款银行（FHLB）借入预付款，而现金充裕的银行停止在外汇掉期市场放贷，最后美联储不得不重启外汇互换协议来抵消相关影响。\n换句话说，就是这5个基点，美联储刚刚为下一场流动性危机埋下了种子，市场应该开始警惕了。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":167925211,"gmtCreate":1624243532733,"gmtModify":1703831394682,"author":{"id":"3586854163859420","authorId":"3586854163859420","name":"chokim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77a59d5fd58cc0342b778ebfba10c3af","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3586854163859420","authorIdStr":"3586854163859420"},"htmlText":"co","listText":"co","text":"co","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/167925211","repostId":2145707519,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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