周期见顶声音不绝于耳，是该抛弃高估值“梦想股”了？

智通财经2021-07-07

6月开始比较明显的变化是美国2年期债券收益率显著拉升，突破横盘了1年多的通道，随着短端收益率的变化，收益率曲线也出现了平坦化特征，在复苏中后段，股票、商品、短债表现出了同步回落的特征。未来如果大类资产仍顺着这一阶段特征持续演绎，那么风险资产或将面临中期调整，那么，这是否意味着此轮经济周期已经见顶呢? 两个月前，华尔街对美国银行5月份的基金经理调查做出了前瞻性回应，并得出结论：无论从经济增长预期...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

SunnyLeo
2021-07-08
SunnyLeo
略略略……
- SunnyLeo:
  [无语][无语][无语]
dkpoh
2021-07-08
dkpoh
666
Youn7276
2021-07-08
Youn7276
閱！
神佛护佑
2021-07-07
神佛护佑
It’s correct!
- Sinlin:
  对
- dkpoh:
  ?

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149367201?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-07 11:51","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2149367201","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"周期见顶声音不绝于耳，是该抛弃高估值“梦想股”了？","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>6月开始比较明显的变化是美国2年期债券收益率显著拉升，突破横盘了1年多的通道，随着短端收益率的变化，收益率曲线也出现了平坦化特征，在复苏中后段，股票、商品、短债表现出了同步回落的特征。\n未来如果大类资产仍顺着这一阶段特征持续演绎，那么风险资产或将面临中期调整，那么，这是否意味着此轮经济周期已经见顶呢?\n两个月前，华尔街对美国银行5月份的基金经理调查做出了前瞻性回应，并得出结论：无论从经济增长预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508819.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>周期见顶声音不绝于耳，是该抛弃高估值“梦想股”了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n周期见顶声音不绝于耳，是该抛弃高估值“梦想股”了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-07 11:51 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508819.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月开始比较明显的变化是美国2年期债券收益率显著拉升，突破横盘了1年多的通道，随着短端收益率的变化，收益率曲线也出现了平坦化特征，在复苏中后段，股票、商品、短债表现出了同步回落的特征。\n未来如果大类资产仍顺着这一阶段特征持续演绎，那么风险资产或将面临中期调整，那么，这是否意味着此轮经济周期已经见顶呢?\n两个月前，华尔街对美国银行5月份的基金经理调查做出了前瞻性回应，并得出结论：无论从经济增长预期...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508819.html\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SH","symbol_name":"标普500反向ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/508819.html","article_id":"2149367201","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149367201","pubTimestamp":1625629870,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"6月开始比较明显的变化是美国2年期债券收益率显著拉升，突破横盘了1年多的通道，随着短端收益率的变化，收益率曲线也出现了平坦化特征，在复苏中后段，股票、商品、短债表现出了同步回落的特征。\n未来如果大类资","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","OEX":"标普100",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"The sound of the peak of the cycle is endless. Is it time to abandon the high-valued \"dream stocks\"?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69dc45a682b1b1fe6025a9371830e45e","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"UPRO":0.9},"content_text":"6月开始比较明显的变化是美国2年期债券收益率显著拉升，突破横盘了1年多的通道，随着短端收益率的变化，收益率曲线也出现了平坦化特征，在复苏中后段，股票、商品、短债表现出了同步回落的特征。\n未来如果大类资产仍顺着这一阶段特征持续演绎，那么风险资产或将面临中期调整，那么，这是否意味着此轮经济周期已经见顶呢?\n两个月前，华尔街对美国银行5月份的基金经理调查做出了前瞻性回应，并得出结论：无论从经济增长预期来看，还是结合资本支出计划、通胀预期等等，后疫情时代经济扩张已见顶。\n\n\n当然，这些前瞻性预期需要一些更有说服力的数据的验证，如近日最新公布的全球制造业PMI数据也已经见顶。\n正如德银分析师Frances Yared所写，6月全球制造业PMI回落至56.8%，从历史角度来看，PMI为54仍将处于非常高的水平，因此现阶段，从峰值开始的下跌应被视为进入周期中期后的修正。PMI峰值数据明确证实，目前正处于“周期顶部”，也可以说周期中期阶段。\n\n此外，6月亚洲制造业PMI较上月下降0.8个百分点至51.2%，连续2个月环比下降，结束了连续7个月52%左右的运行区间，降至51%附近。\n世界银行近期发布报告预计今年全球经济将增长5.6%，是近50年来最快涨速，也是近80年来最快的衰退后涨速。\n值得一提的是，摩根士丹利的迈克尔•威尔逊(MichaelWilson)几个月来也一直警告经济周期即将见顶。\n美国银行也同意经济周期见顶的观点，如该行首席量化官萨维塔•苏布拉曼尼亚(Savita Subramanian)的一份报告中写道，“历史上周期顶部区间通常会持续12个月，目前我们只剩下4个月了。因此，目前的阶段至少可以延续到夏季，并有可能延续到夏季以后。”\n\n这对投资意味着什么?周期中期通常伴随着利率和资本支出的上升，因此，反映公司价值的估值指标和反映资本支出的盈利能力非常重要。\nLeuthold Group的Jim Paulsen通过分析了过去40年的牛市周期指出，虽然每一个牛市都是不同的，但遵循的模式通常是相同的：即周期开始时的强劲运行，持续一年或更长时间的犹豫期，然后趋势发生逆转，当然也可能是崩盘，假设没有美联储的救助。\nPaulsen在描述中期周期(他称之为价值重估阶段)时指出，此时企业业绩继续改善，但估值变得捉襟见肘，收益率上升的压力加剧。在这种情况下，股市最多只能在一年内将发生转向。\n一般周期见顶的信号为：估值不断上升，几乎从谷底翻番，公司业绩和收益率都持续提高。\n如1982年，由于企业利润和债券收益率持续下降，股市出现大幅反弹。随后，标准普尔500指数在1984年中期出现了15%的回调，第二年，收益开始回升，债券收益率上升。\n1992年，企业利润和收益率在进入1994年中期周期时出现下滑，当时标普指数在1994年初下跌了近10%，并一直持平到1995年。\n类似的情况发生在2004年，当时标普500指数的市盈率从2003年末的22倍下降到2004年末的17倍以下。\n\n传统上，当景气迈入下一阶段时，成长股、高质量股票(价值股)通常表现会切换。一般在扩张和趋于稳定的时期(当下)，成长股会跑赢周期股。周期股一般在最初的经济复苏期跑赢。\n总之，这一轮周期并非正常的周期，疫情导致部分成长股的估值已接近极端，因此在当前的阶段，应聚焦高质量和高盈利能力的成长股，而一部分成长股只能被称为“梦想股”或“信仰股”，在这一阶段可能并不会受到青睐。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":149049271,"gmtCreate":1625697993493,"gmtModify":1703746458438,"author":{"id":"3574831020474056","authorId":"3574831020474056","name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a8758340a08196056f8bc1e54805193","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3574831020474056","idStr":"3574831020474056"},"htmlText":"略略略……","listText":"略略略……","text":"略略略……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149049271","repostId":2149367201,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5153353,"gmtCreate":1625698002578,"gmtModify":1663230670937,"authorId":3574831020474056,"author":{"id":3574831020474056,"idStr":"3574831020474056","authorId":3574831020474056,"name":"SunnyLeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/141e6a3a9725451bfd426b0bdbb68be5","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":149049271,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[无语][无语][无语]","text":"[无语][无语][无语]","html":"[无语][无语][无语]"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":149084325,"gmtCreate":1625694635667,"gmtModify":1703746413624,"author":{"id":"3569639956293909","authorId":"3569639956293909","name":"dkpoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c363fe0c37055ba864124087c92ab292","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569639956293909","idStr":"3569639956293909"},"htmlText":"666","listText":"666","text":"666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149084325","repostId":2149367201,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":149012114,"gmtCreate":1625692890038,"gmtModify":1703746395815,"author":{"id":"3577393549070429","authorId":"3577393549070429","name":"Youn7276","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/487c5c26a5e210d6b88adaeaba12329b","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577393549070429","idStr":"3577393549070429"},"htmlText":"閱！","listText":"閱！","text":"閱！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/149012114","repostId":2149367201,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":140106226,"gmtCreate":1625634363865,"gmtModify":1703745363187,"author":{"id":"3576321023701513","authorId":"3576321023701513","name":"神佛护佑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e570de638069b875adf243bba438b98a","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576321023701513","idStr":"3576321023701513"},"htmlText":"It’s correct!","listText":"It’s correct!","text":"It’s correct!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/140106226","repostId":2149367201,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5149842,"gmtCreate":1625665153976,"gmtModify":1663230652640,"authorId":3578273090742274,"author":{"id":3578273090742274,"idStr":"3578273090742274","authorId":3578273090742274,"name":"Sinlin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e26a5aacb13f0157a96e28fd565c12e5","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140106226,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"对","text":"对","html":"对"},{"id":5152993,"gmtCreate":1625694652775,"gmtModify":1635234821340,"authorId":3569639956293909,"author":{"id":3569639956293909,"idStr":"3569639956293909","authorId":3569639956293909,"name":"dkpoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c363fe0c37055ba864124087c92ab292","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":140106226,"type":1,"supId":5149842,"prevId":0,"content":"?","text":"?","html":"?"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2149367201"}