美国6月通胀前瞻：高烧或难退

华尔街见闻2021-07-12

美国劳工部将于北京时间明日晚间公布6月通胀数据，上月美国CPI同比涨5%，增速创13年新高；核心CPI同比涨3.8%，创28年以来新高。上月的通胀是年内的峰值了么？从美国国债利率代表的通胀平衡预期来看，已于5月中旬见顶。从高点2.54%回落到当前的2.22%，已经下行了0.32个百分点。同时6月基数效应也会缓和0.5个百分点。但美国6月通胀会退烧么？恐怕还没有。从研究机构的主要预期来看：美国...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

bokeng
2021-07-12
bokeng
Read. Thanks
mini2185
2021-07-12
mini2185
通膨已經到高點
anggis
2021-07-12
anggis
[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2150533008?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-12 21:18","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2150533008","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美国6月通胀前瞻：高烧或难退","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>美国劳工部将于北京时间明日晚间公布6月通胀数据，上月美国CPI同比涨5%，增速创13年新高；核心CPI同比涨3.8%，创28年以来新高。上月的通胀是年内的峰值了么？\n从美国国债利率代表的通胀平衡预期来看，已于5月中旬见顶。从高点2.54%回落到当前的2.22%，已经下行了0.32个百分点。同时6月基数效应也会缓和0.5个百分点。但美国6月通胀会退烧么？\n恐怕还没有。\n从研究机构的主要预期来看：美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国6月通胀前瞻：高烧或难退</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国6月通胀前瞻：高烧或难退\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-12 21:18 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国劳工部将于北京时间明日晚间公布6月通胀数据，上月美国CPI同比涨5%，增速创13年新高；核心CPI同比涨3.8%，创28年以来新高。上月的通胀是年内的峰值了么？\n从美国国债利率代表的通胀平衡预期来看，已于5月中旬见顶。从高点2.54%回落到当前的2.22%，已经下行了0.32个百分点。同时6月基数效应也会缓和0.5个百分点。但美国6月通胀会退烧么？\n恐怕还没有。\n从研究机构的主要预期来看：美国...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187","article_id":"2150533008","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/0dd1549a90968778a7afdc56cd660b1b"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635187","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150533008","pubTimestamp":1626095884,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美国6月CPI或居高不下，主要受到食品汽油价格、低端收入上涨和车价上行带领。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"US Inflation Outlook in June: High Fever or Difficult to Retreat","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3421b810a7b5d66987d46f4fcc1dbd3a","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9},"content_text":"美国劳工部将于北京时间明日晚间公布6月通胀数据，上月美国CPI同比涨5%，增速创13年新高；核心CPI同比涨3.8%，创28年以来新高。上月的通胀是年内的峰值了么？\n从美国国债利率代表的通胀平衡预期来看，已于5月中旬见顶。从高点2.54%回落到当前的2.22%，已经下行了0.32个百分点。同时6月基数效应也会缓和0.5个百分点。但美国6月通胀会退烧么？\n恐怕还没有。\n从研究机构的主要预期来看：美国6月CPI或居高不下。环比继5月上涨0.8%之后，本月将录得上涨0.5%。同比CPI增长4.9-5% ，几乎与5月高点持平。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨4%，再创近30年来最大涨幅。\n\n\n注：上图为华尔街见闻通胀预测的CPI中值为5%，与上月持平；核心CPI中值为3.9%，略高于上月水平。\n推动CPI上行的动力主要有以下几方面：\n1、食品和汽油价格的上涨\n供给受限、食品生产商成本转嫁压力、美国西部各州加剧的“大旱”等因素正共同推高美国市场上的食品价格。美国媒体Business Insider公布的美国目前正在经历的最严重短缺列表，这些产品包括计算机芯片、棕榈油、鸡肉、培根和热狗、进口食品（如奶酪，咖啡和橄榄油）及玉米等等数十种和美国经济生活密切相关的用品。 另外，汽油价格的继续上行也使得在全美范围内的运输成本变得更加昂贵。\n2、低收入工人的工资大幅上涨\n随着当前就业矛盾的加剧，最新的低收入领域薪资的强劲增长迹象令人震惊：亚特兰大联储的研究显示，今年以来，休闲和酒店行业的生产和非监管类工资已经上涨了8.25%，低薪服务业新雇佣工人的工资涨幅尤其强劲。纽约联储的一项调查显示，正常年收入低于6万美元的工人表示，他们要比疫情前高出26%的工资才会接受一份工作。\n高盛研究指出，劳动力密集的低工资行业几乎将他们的全部劳动力成本转移到通货膨胀上。低端工资每增长1%，会推动核心通胀率上升5-15个基点，而这还是一个温和的程度，还没考虑薪资超预期增长的情况。\n3、新车和二手车价格继续上行\n研究公司J.D. Power的数据，6月中旬美国销售的所有车辆中，约有四分之三的车辆售价达到或超过了美国汽车制造商的建议零售价，这一比例高于5月底的67%。同期Manheim的二手车价值批发指数继续比去年同期高出36%，4月份时其增长率一度超过了50%。\n整体而言，需求复苏下的供应链瓶颈和劳动力短缺依然是加剧通胀压力的主要推手。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":146460358,"gmtCreate":1626096927074,"gmtModify":1703753278785,"author":{"id":"3582665740228450","authorId":"3582665740228450","name":"bokeng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c5f21440e7fd2ead0b4058dcb5cdbb","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3582665740228450","authorIdStr":"3582665740228450"},"htmlText":"Read. Thanks","listText":"Read. Thanks","text":"Read. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146460358","repostId":2150533008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":146488480,"gmtCreate":1626096802240,"gmtModify":1703753270933,"author":{"id":"4088859063380530","authorId":"4088859063380530","name":"mini2185","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e82c4161516a994fd3390647e241edf9","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088859063380530","authorIdStr":"4088859063380530"},"htmlText":"通膨已經到高點","listText":"通膨已經到高點","text":"通膨已經到高點","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146488480","repostId":2150533008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":146417769,"gmtCreate":1626096666551,"gmtModify":1703753263584,"author":{"id":"4087385672215140","authorId":"4087385672215140","name":"anggis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c4f141d9014b42ed0dd5fba383aed4","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087385672215140","authorIdStr":"4087385672215140"},"htmlText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"[微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/146417769","repostId":2150533008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":21,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2150533008"}