缺“芯”的拐点要来了？

华尔街见闻2021-07-16

销量暴涨的新能源车因为缺芯几乎要面临停工停产的危机，最近屡屡传出汽车厂商都有自己建设晶圆厂了念头了，全球的分析师都在关注半导体供需平衡与库存修正将在何时发生，更有一个指标历史上7次准确预言了半导体景气度的拐点。华尔街见闻·见智研究所通过分析半导体的周期来解答以下问题：缺芯何时缓解？当下是国产替代的机遇？预示危机的指标又是什么？一、从供需错配到再平衡 1、为什么缺芯？缺芯缺产能的底层逻辑就是...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

GameKK
2021-07-16
GameKK
這3-5年還是缺芯（需求上升）[財迷]
kenp
2021-07-16
kenp
Oh
想成为股神的小弟
2021-07-16
想成为股神的小弟
[財迷] [財迷]
jamiengan
2021-07-16
jamiengan
Wow
jamiengan
2021-07-16
jamiengan
Wow
- jamiengan:
  wow

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151261135?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-16 12:28","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2151261135","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"缺“芯”的拐点要来了？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>销量暴涨的新能源车因为缺芯几乎要面临停工停产的危机，最近屡屡传出汽车厂商都有自己建设晶圆厂了念头了，全球的分析师都在关注半导体供需平衡与库存修正将在何时发生，更有一个指标历史上7次准确预言了半导体景气度的拐点。\n华尔街见闻·见智研究所通过分析半导体的周期来解答以下问题：缺芯何时缓解？当下是国产替代的机遇？预示危机的指标又是什么？\n一、从供需错配到再平衡\n1、为什么缺芯？\n缺芯缺产能的底层逻辑就是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635357\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>缺“芯”的拐点要来了？ </title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n缺“芯”的拐点要来了？ \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 12:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635357><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>销量暴涨的新能源车因为缺芯几乎要面临停工停产的危机，最近屡屡传出汽车厂商都有自己建设晶圆厂了念头了，全球的分析师都在关注半导体供需平衡与库存修正将在何时发生，更有一个指标历史上7次准确预言了半导体景气度的拐点。\n华尔街见闻·见智研究所通过分析半导体的周期来解答以下问题：缺芯何时缓解？当下是国产替代的机遇？预示危机的指标又是什么？\n一、从供需错配到再平衡\n1、为什么缺芯？\n缺芯缺产能的底层逻辑就是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635357\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"TSM","symbol_name":"台积电","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635357","article_id":"2151261135","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3635357","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151261135","pubTimestamp":1626409687,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"销量暴涨的新能源车因为缺芯几乎要面临停工停产的危机，最近屡屡传出汽车厂商都有自己建设晶圆厂了念头了，全球的分析师都在关注半导体供需平衡与库存修正将在何时发生，更有一个指标历史上7次准确预言了半导体景气","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"TSM":"台积电","00981":"中芯国际"},"translate_title":"Is the inflection point of lack of \"core\" coming?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dba93352a1216263b233c9d9d7cba863","symbols_score_info":{"00981":0.9,"TSM":0.9},"content_text":"销量暴涨的新能源车因为缺芯几乎要面临停工停产的危机，最近屡屡传出汽车厂商都有自己建设晶圆厂了念头了，全球的分析师都在关注半导体供需平衡与库存修正将在何时发生，更有一个指标历史上7次准确预言了半导体景气度的拐点。\n华尔街见闻·见智研究所通过分析半导体的周期来解答以下问题：缺芯何时缓解？当下是国产替代的机遇？预示危机的指标又是什么？\n一、从供需错配到再平衡\n1、为什么缺芯？\n缺芯缺产能的底层逻辑就是芯片的供给小于需求。从2021年开始全球半导体的供给进入瓶颈期，而伴随着下游需求的爆发式增长，导致半导体行业出现严重缺货的现象。\n国际半导体产业协会SEMI预测，今年是由于云端服务器笔记本电脑、游戏及医疗科技需求成长，5G、物联网汽车及人工智能快速发展，带动了产业的景气度。这其中新能源车和物联网市场是两个增长最快速的变量，新能源车行业五年的复合增速高达41.53%，而手机和电脑依旧是半导体需求端体量最大的，但预期近五年增速较新兴行业低很多。\n\n2、2022年缺芯将缓解?\nGartner预测：全球半导体供应短缺将持续整个2021年，并在2022年第二季度恢复至正常水平，而基板产能限制可能会延长到2022年第四季度。也就是说在此之前，半导体还会伴随着长时间的芯片短缺，涨价函依旧会接踵而至。\n从半导体的供需周期来看，在2021年下半年伴随着晶圆厂的设备安装，龙头厂商预期最快2022年开始才能够释放出新产能，这其中包括联电、格芯、中芯国际等晶圆代工厂，而台积电的大批量产能预期在2023年后才能逐步落地，所以半导体行业还需要一个较长的时间周期才重新达到供需平衡。\n3、产业链延续涨价？\n因为供需的错配，产能的紧缺以及扩产带来的成本增加都会相继增加产品的溢价。而涨价直接的好处是给了厂商定价权，出厂价格高了，企业的盈利能力会很大程度提高。但是有一点不能忽略：厂商处于产业链什么位置很关键。如果是处于生产加工的下游，那么原材料成本的提价也要考虑进去。在21年全球大多数晶圆厂、材料以及封测都相继提高了两成左右的价格，龙头厂的订单都排至了2022年。从今年6月份开始10多家厂商陆续发布下半年涨价函，消息指出预计涨价将持续到2022年。\n台媒《经济日报》6月24日报道称，IC设计业者透露，明年初晶圆代工价格已经敲定，不仅联电8英寸和12英寸的晶圆代工价格续涨，晶圆代工龙头台积电也涨价，部分8英寸和12英寸制程价格上涨一到两成，且12英寸制程涨幅高于8英寸。\n二、全球扩张下的国产替代机遇\n世界半导体贸易统计组织（WSTS）预测，2021年全球半导体市场增速将达19.7%， 2022年半导体市场将增长8.8%，连续两年创历史新高。\nGartner预测：中国半导体企业到2025年市场的市场份额将从当下的15%提升至30%，近五年中国半导体将会快速渗透。\n全球晶圆厂最新扩建计划，中国是首位？今年6月份国际半导体产业协会SEMI发布报告称2021-2022年全球半导体制造商新增29座晶圆厂，分别于2021年建设19座，2022年再增加10座。\n从SEMI给出的数据来看，中国大陆和台湾地区两年间增加的晶圆厂数量是全球首位，共计16座，其次是美国4座，欧洲和中东一共增加3座，日本和韩国各两座。全部投产后，每月可生产260万片等效200mm晶圆。考虑到新增的晶圆厂建设周期较长，预计从2023年开始新增晶圆厂开始大幅采购半导体设备。\n\n那么国内半导体行业有存在怎样的机遇呢？华尔街见闻·见智研究所对四大行业的格局进行了分析。\n1、晶圆厂格局\n三星是全球市占率最大的晶圆厂，达到14.7%，折算约310万片/月的产能；其次是台积电市占率为13.1%，约270万片/月产能。美光和SK海力士位居第三、第四，市占率在9%左右，每家产能约为190万片/月。中芯国际的产能约为54万片/月，在全球排名前十二。（产能按8英寸折算）\n行业内5家最大的纯晶圆代工厂——台积电、联电、格芯、中芯国际和力晶（包括Nexchip）约占全球晶圆代工厂总产能的24％，行业集中度非常高。国内晶圆厂预计21年新增的产能75万片/月（按 8 英寸折算），其中新增产能的前三位分别是长江存储、华虹半导体和中芯国际。\n2、设备厂格局\n从设备类型的市场占比情况来看，前道晶圆制造设备占主要比重，高达80%，这其中主要包括刻蚀机、薄膜沉积设备和光刻机；其次封装和测试设备的占比比较小，分别为10%和8%。前道晶圆设备龙头包括泛林半导体、TEL、应用材料、ASML几乎是垄断了全球九成的份额。\n在国内的公司中，刻蚀机设备主要是北方华创和中微半导体。两个公司目前是差异化的布局，不存在直接竞争关系。北方华创的优势在于长硅刻蚀和金属刻蚀，而中微公司的优势在于长介质刻蚀。\n沉积设备：主要是北方华创和沈阳拓荆，两者在ALD和PVD方面存在一定程度的竞争，而在化学气相沉积方面只有沈阳拓荆在做，在今年7月12日沈阳拓荆在科创板IPO申请也已经获受理了。\n光刻设备：上海微电子已经突破了光刻机90/65的技术节点；沈阳芯源突破涂胶显影机90/65的技术节点。\n3、封测厂格局\n全球封测市场中CR3占比约六成，集中度很高，日月光占比就达到三成以上，其次是安靠和长电科技约一成以上，通富微电位居第五，市占率约4.4%。长电科技背靠中芯国际，通富微电背靠AMD。\n4、光刻胶格局\n半导体光刻胶主要分为四种类型，g线、i线、KrF线和ArF线。就占比情况来看ArF线占比最大，约四成，其次是KrF线两成，g线和i线共计两成。\n光刻胶九成份额被外国龙头垄断，今年由于日本信越化学的KrF光刻胶无限期断供，给国内公司很大的发展机遇，哪些厂商率先进入晶圆代工厂的生产线中，未来成长空间会非常大。\nArF线：北京科华（现被彤程新材收购）、晶瑞股份正在研发中；南大光电通过客户认证。\nKrF线：北京科华、上海新阳已经实现量产，晶瑞股份已完成测试。\ng线/i线：容大感光产能扩建中，北京科华可供应。\n三、产能过剩后的危机\n随着未来五年内半导体产能的大量投放，而需求增速的逐渐放缓，伴随而来的是半导体产能过剩，高库存的情况，必然会导致半导体市场价格的下跌。观测这一重要转折点要看什么？通过复盘半导体的历史周期，华尔街见闻·见智研究所观察到资本开支可作为预测拐点的领先指标。\n从历史规律来看，在资本开支大幅增长的一到两年后将会伴随半导体市场的大幅下跌。如1984年全球半导体行业资本开支增长106%，而后的第二年半导体市场下跌了17%。此后的四个周期也是出现相同的规律。直到2008年的下跌是由金融危机导致的，而后2010年资本开支出现大幅回升，达到107%，第二年半导体市场同样出现了暴跌。\n通过复盘历史得到非常重要的指标，那就是资本开始危险临界线。当资本开支增长超过40%的时候，通常预测未来会出现产能过剩和半导体增速下跌的情况。\n\n危机来临了吗？\n根据IC Insights的预测来看，2021年半导体资本开支的增速预计在16%-23%之间。总体上看半导体市场还处于景气周期中，目前没有达到产能过剩的临界点。但需要特别注意的是，台积电21年的资本开支增速同比达到74%，英特尔资本开支同比增速达到37%，已经达到高水位线，而三星的资本开支几乎与去年齐平。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":170160282,"gmtCreate":1626412857146,"gmtModify":1703759679868,"author":{"id":"4088386243148540","authorId":"4088386243148540","name":"GameKK","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed3c81dc8da48a854ab4181a657cdc43","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088386243148540","idStr":"4088386243148540"},"htmlText":"這3-5年還是缺芯（需求上升）[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"這3-5年還是缺芯（需求上升）[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"這3-5年還是缺芯（需求上升）[財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170160282","repostId":2151261135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":170180575,"gmtCreate":1626412114197,"gmtModify":1703759666932,"author":{"id":"3577343858256661","authorId":"3577343858256661","name":"kenp","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/658bc030049b2996b0e2f267da086675","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3577343858256661","idStr":"3577343858256661"},"htmlText":"Oh&nbsp;","listText":"Oh&nbsp;","text":"Oh","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170180575","repostId":2151261135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":170133384,"gmtCreate":1626410674648,"gmtModify":1703759637818,"author":{"id":"3586005696978253","authorId":"3586005696978253","name":"想成为股神的小弟","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3586005696978253","idStr":"3586005696978253"},"htmlText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[財迷]&nbsp;[財迷]&nbsp;","text":"[財迷] [財迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170133384","repostId":2151261135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":170198995,"gmtCreate":1626410014717,"gmtModify":1703759628058,"author":{"id":"3569299384564621","authorId":"3569299384564621","name":"jamiengan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889f4395dbbcc2004e91811498c78b43","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569299384564621","idStr":"3569299384564621"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170198995","repostId":2151261135,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":170193924,"gmtCreate":1626409839768,"gmtModify":1703759623748,"author":{"id":"3569299384564621","authorId":"3569299384564621","name":"jamiengan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889f4395dbbcc2004e91811498c78b43","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569299384564621","idStr":"3569299384564621"},"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/170193924","repostId":2151261135,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5236683,"gmtCreate":1626410046607,"gmtModify":1663231045830,"authorId":3569299384564621,"author":{"id":3569299384564621,"idStr":"3569299384564621","authorId":3569299384564621,"name":"jamiengan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/889f4395dbbcc2004e91811498c78b43","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":170193924,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"wow","text":"wow","html":"wow"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2151261135"}