Moderna's Joining the S&P 500: What's Next for the Hot Vaccine Stock?

Motley Fool2021-07-19

(July 19) Moderna, Inc. rose more than 5% in morning tarding, reached record high. You never hear anyone refer to the "S&P 501 index" or the "S&P 499 index." No, it's the S&P 500 index, for a good ...

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Comments

AL52
2021-07-21
AL52
It went down but will go up again!
K52LiveLife
2021-07-20
K52LiveLife
Still watching it… maybe potential candidate
nivlac
2021-07-20
nivlac
Pls like
Klord
2021-07-20
Klord
Vaccine stock will be stable stock
- Klord:
  Could have staLe dividends
- nivlac:
  agreed
来人
2021-07-20
来人
Up up all the way... ?
STKG
2021-07-20
STKG
Good to know

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When one company is removed from the list, another one is added. Always.\nThat's what is about to happen. Alexion Pharmaceuticals currently ranks as one of only six biotech stocks on the S&P 500. However, AstraZeneca will soon acquire the company, meaning S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI) will have to replace Alexion on its heavily followed index.\nAs it turns out, another biotech stock is set to take Alexion's spot: Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA). S&P Global announced last Thursday evening that Moderna would be added to the S&P 500, effective prior to the market open on July 21. Shares of Moderna jumped over 10% on Friday, after soaring nearly 150% year to date already. What's next for this hot vaccine stock?\n\nImage source: Getty Images.\nUsing the past as a guide\nThere's an old saying that \"history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.\" Assuming the adage has some truth to it, we could potentially learn how Moderna's share price might fare by looking at what happened with other stocks that were added to the S&P 500.\nSo far in 2021, 10 stocks have been added to the index as a result of acquisitions, spinoffs, and market-cap changes.\nThe most recent of these was Organon (NYSE:OGN). S&P Global announced on May 27 that the drugmaker, which was spun off from Merck, would be added to the S&P 500 index, effective June 4. Organon's shares climbed only around 4% between the date of the announcement and its addition to the index. But afterward, the pharma stock fell close to 15%.\nS&P Global announced on May 10 that Charles River Laboratories (NYSE:CRL) would join the S&P 500 index effective May 14. The diagnostics stock fell a little in the days leading up to its addition to the index. However, after its inclusion on the S&P 500, Charles River Labs stock went on a roll, rising nearly 17%.\nThere is one stock that might offer a closer parallel to Moderna. NXP Semiconductors (NASDAQ:NXPI) stock jumped around 10% between the announcement of its addition to the S&P 500 on March 12, and when it joined the index on March 22. That's nearly exactly the same level as Moderna's shares leaped on Friday. So what happened next with NXP? The stock moved up and down like a yo-yo, and is now 5% lower.\nDifferent dynamics\nYou've probably decided that history is a poor rhymer -- at least when it comes to how stocks perform when they're added to the S&P 500 index. There's a good reason why it's hard to discern a clear pattern: Each stock has different dynamics at work.\nSure, mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the S&P 500 index must now add shares of Moderna to their holdings. However, they were likely already doing so to some extent, even before the announcement about Moderna's addition to the index.\nWhat matters most for Moderna stock now is exactly the same thing that mattered most before last Thursday. And that critical factor is how demand for the company's COVID-19 vaccine will hold up.\nBased on the stock's trajectory in the weeks and months leading up to S&P Global's announcement that Moderna was replacing Alexion in the S&P 500, investors are expecting that demand for Moderna's vaccine will remain quite strong. They could very well be right.\nThe variant variable\nHowever, whether or not investors' optimism is warranted depends on one variable that is most likely to impact Moderna's fortunes over the coming months and years: the emergence of coronavirus variants of concern. Right now, the most important to watch is the Delta variant.\nSo far, Moderna's COVID-19 vaccine appears to be holding up relatively well against the Delta variant, as well as against other variants of concern. However, there's a real possibility that booster doses could be needed for at least some individuals in the not-too-distant future. Also, other variants could arise for which current vaccines are significantly less effective.\nFor Moderna to remain a member of the S&P 500, its market cap must remain large enough to be among the top 500 stocks. Whether that will happen depends on recurring demand for its COVID-19 vaccine. And that demand depends largely how coronavirus variants affect the pandemic.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":178240324,"gmtCreate":1626825208168,"gmtModify":1703765795732,"author":{"id":"4087351235415740","authorId":"4087351235415740","name":"AL52","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccd984713e8caa3d556ac32f05dfea4","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4087351235415740","idStr":"4087351235415740"},"htmlText":"It went down but will go up again!","listText":"It went down but will go up again!","text":"It went down but will go up again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178240324","repostId":2152363743,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":178145522,"gmtCreate":1626793949966,"gmtModify":1703765394991,"author":{"id":"3582773570816630","authorId":"3582773570816630","name":"K52LiveLife","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4fdcf8911bf758b27af36ac8c0d2b37","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3582773570816630","idStr":"3582773570816630"},"htmlText":"Still watching it… maybe potential candidate","listText":"Still watching it… maybe potential candidate","text":"Still watching it… maybe potential candidate","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/178145522","repostId":2152363743,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":171703082,"gmtCreate":1626761152746,"gmtModify":1703764698670,"author":{"id":"3576410555567456","authorId":"3576410555567456","name":"nivlac","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f49098bcdb5db4fdcfb746b729245d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3576410555567456","idStr":"3576410555567456"},"htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171703082","repostId":2152363743,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":171419906,"gmtCreate":1626755545905,"gmtModify":1703764598259,"author":{"id":"3580186978635227","authorId":"3580186978635227","name":"Klord","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574ccbec5d208d26acb8f42536c3b775","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580186978635227","idStr":"3580186978635227"},"htmlText":"Vaccine stock will be stable stock","listText":"Vaccine stock will be stable stock","text":"Vaccine stock will be stable stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/171419906","repostId":2152363743,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5276510,"gmtCreate":1626822150465,"gmtModify":1663231236242,"authorId":3580186978635227,"author":{"id":3580186978635227,"idStr":"3580186978635227","authorId":3580186978635227,"name":"Klord","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/574ccbec5d208d26acb8f42536c3b775","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":171419906,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Could have staLe dividends","text":"Could have staLe dividends","html":"Could have staLe dividends"},{"id":5270233,"gmtCreate":1626761165170,"gmtModify":1663231201331,"authorId":3576410555567456,"author":{"id":3576410555567456,"idStr":"3576410555567456","authorId":3576410555567456,"name":"nivlac","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/20f49098bcdb5db4fdcfb746b729245d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":171419906,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"agreed","text":"agreed","html":"agreed"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":171296641,"gmtCreate":1626745191183,"gmtModify":1703764298422,"author":{"id":"3575544575320394","authorId":"3575544575320394","name":"来人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0af89587decbb8a1d3e1596adc29cb98","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575544575320394","idStr":"3575544575320394"},"htmlText":"Up up all the way... ?","listText":"Up up all the way... ?","text":"Up up all the way... 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