中信证券：OPEC+决议好于预期，有望推动油价上行

格隆汇2021-07-19

7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致力于长期维持原油市场稳定性，此轮高油价长期持续的确定性料也进一步提升。油价高景气利好油及油服公司、煤化工、民营大炼化和轻烃裂解龙头，推荐上游低估值龙头，建议关注中国石油H、中国石化（H）、中海油服（A...

Source Link

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

Comments

秀秀2
2021-07-19
秀秀2
希望明天會更好
Jason1205
2021-07-19
Jason1205
Are you sure?

Leave a comment

{"i18n":{"language":"en_US"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2152639489?lang=en_US&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2021-07-19 15:31","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","id":"2152639489","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"中信证券：OPEC+决议好于预期，有望推动油价上行","media":"格隆汇","content":"<div>\n<p>7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致力于长期维持原油市场稳定性，此轮高油价长期持续的确定性料也进一步提升。油价高景气利好油及油服公司、煤化工、民营大炼化和轻烃裂解龙头，推荐上游低估值龙头，建议关注中国石油H、中国石化（H）、中海油服（A...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476353\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"gelonghui_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中信证券：OPEC+决议好于预期，有望推动油价上行</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中信证券：OPEC+决议好于预期，有望推动油价上行\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 15:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476353><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致力于长期维持原油市场稳定性，此轮高油价长期持续的确定性料也进一步提升。油价高景气利好油及油服公司、煤化工、民营大炼化和轻烃裂解龙头，推荐上游低估值龙头，建议关注中国石油H、中国石化（H）、中海油服（A...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476353\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DWT","symbol_name":"三倍做空原油ETN","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/476353","article_id":"2152639489","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/de019d346ae215b032b548e12d784857"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152639489","pubTimestamp":1626679866,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"gelonghui_highlight","name":"格隆汇"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"gelonghui.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"600030":"中信证券","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","USO":"美国原油ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","06030":"中信证券","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF"},"translate_title":"CITIC Securities: OPEC + resolution is better than expected and is expected to push up oil prices","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd7b5d847ae092a541198424db1312a","symbols_score_info":{"600030":0.9,"06030":0.9,"DDG":0.9,"DUG":0.9,"DWT":0.9,"DWTIF":0.9,"BZmain":0.9,"CLmain":0.9,"QMmain":0.9,"SCO":0.9,"UCO":0.9,"USO":0.9,"UWTIF":0.9},"content_text":"7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致力于长期维持原油市场稳定性，此轮高油价长期持续的确定性料也进一步提升。油价高景气利好油及油服公司、煤化工、民营大炼化和轻烃裂解龙头，推荐上游低估值龙头，建议关注中国石油H、中国石化（H）、中海油服（A+H），煤化工龙头宝丰能源、华鲁恒升、鲁西化工，民营大炼化龙头荣盛石化、恒力石化、桐昆股份，轻烃裂解龙头万华化学、卫星石化、东华能源等。\nOPEC+达成协议，后续增产不确定性解除\n北京时间7月18日晚，OPEC+达成协议：\n1）从2021年8月起每月增产不超过40万桶/天，直到当前的580万桶/天减产额度全部释放；\n2）若需求恢复迅速，则减产将在2022年9月结束，若较为缓慢，减产将持续至2022年底；\n3）上调沙特、俄罗斯、阿联酋、伊拉克和科威特等国的减产基准合计163万桶/天，新基准将于2022年5月生效；\n4）OPEC+仍将每月召开一次会议，下一次会议定于9月1日，并将在2021年12月评估市场情况，以进一步决定后续产量。\n供应端不确定性有望主导近期及后续油价趋势\n油价整体由供给、需求、流动性三个因素决定，且趋势上受当前时点供应、需求中不确定性更强的一端主控。站在当前时点，我们认为，未来2-3年需求复苏并持续增长的态势基本明确，供应端不确定性会重新成为后续油价走势的主导因素。过去两周OPEC+谈判反复，引发市场对供应端放量的担忧，导致油价回落。我们认为短、中、长期油价应分别关注OPEC+产量变化、伊朗潜在的增产、美国页岩油产量的后续变化。\n短期：OPEC+决议全面好于市场预期，有望支撑近期油价强势表现\n此前OPEC+预期若8月环比不增产，则8月全球原油供应缺口可达170万桶/天。7月1日OPEC+会议开始前市场曾预期该组织8月增产规模在50-100万桶/天之间，随后OPEC+谈判未达成协议导致过去2周油价连续环比回落，市场预期OPEC+8月可能增产约150万桶/天或更多，或者将于8月上调多国减产基准，甚至面临减产联盟解体的危机。此次OPEC+决议在8月增产幅度、基准线上调时间和联盟稳定性方面均好于市场预期，预计7-8月全球原油去库趋势大概率将延续，有望支持油价强势表现。\n中期：此轮油价有望在未来一年内达峰，建议关注美伊谈判和9-11月需求端扰动\n结合油价历史复盘、供需格局、库存水平和产油国诉求，我们认为此轮油价上行周期或有望延续，峰值可能出现在两个窗口期之一：\n1）此轮OPEC+达成产量决议后，7-8月流动性宽松叠加需求旺季，供应端可能出现较显著的缺口，近期油价有望冲高；\n2）若近期油价未显著冲高，预计2021Q4-2022H1需求会恢复到疫情前水平后继续增长，除美国外的供应端剩余产能有限，供应紧张料将推动油价在3-6个月的窗口期内冲高，并以OPEC或页岩油增产、基本面回归平衡告终。此外，下半年应关注8月伊朗权力交接后美伊谈判进度、以及9-11月传统需求淡季和疫情后需求复苏周期叠加下需求端对油价的扰动。\n长期：预计未来2-3年油价将维持在60甚至65美元以上\n需求持续增长背景下，供应端来看，美国页岩油采取更重视现金流回报的经营策略，经营现金流投资比例从疫情前的80%~130%降至当前的40%~65%，多家页岩油企表态将仅在全球供应实质性紧缺时增产，而不以油价高低为依据。预计未来OPEC+对油价的影响力将重新回升。该组织致力于将库存水平降至2010-2014年的低水平，并通过支撑油价保障财政收支平衡，IMF预测沙特、科威特、阿联酋、伊拉克2021年财政收支平衡油价分别为76、69、66、71美元。\n风险因素\n需求不及预期；供应端超预期增产；流动性迅速收紧。\n投资策略\n7月18日晚间OPEC+召开部长级会议，会议结果在8月增产幅度，减产基准线上调时间和减产联盟稳固性方面全面好于市场预期，有望支撑短期油价强势表现。同时，OPEC+表态将持续跟踪市场动态，谨慎增产，并致力于长期维持原油市场稳定性，此轮高油价长期持续的确定性也进一步提升。\n油价高景气利好油及油服公司、煤化工、民营大炼化和轻烃裂解龙头，推荐上游低估值龙头，建议关注中国石油H、中国石化（H）、中海油服（A+H），推荐煤化工龙头宝丰能源、华鲁恒升、鲁西化工，民营大炼化龙头恒力石化、桐昆股份，建议关注荣盛石化，轻烃裂解龙头万华化学、卫星石化、东华能源等。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":173429566,"gmtCreate":1626681419055,"gmtModify":1703763233584,"author":{"id":"4087949335835340","authorId":"4087949335835340","name":"秀秀2","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e038d37cd29357541780e8c248a33897","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4087949335835340","authorIdStr":"4087949335835340"},"htmlText":"希望明天會更好","listText":"希望明天會更好","text":"希望明天會更好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173429566","repostId":2152639489,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":173485550,"gmtCreate":1626680082570,"gmtModify":1703763213978,"author":{"id":"262190804341046","authorId":"262190804341046","name":"Jason1205","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a22c3af3bb938bf74c151660df1d68dd","vip":1,"crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"262190804341046","authorIdStr":"262190804341046"},"htmlText":"Are you sure?","listText":"Are you sure?","text":"Are you sure?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/173485550","repostId":2152639489,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2152639489"}