大摩：这一指标发出警报，美股面临“重大调整风险”

华尔街见闻2021-07-23

虽然标普500指数过去一个月创下新高，但市场广度指标（Market Breadth）恶化已对美股发出警报，显示美股或面临“重大调整风险”。摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Michael Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位...

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TIDARAT
2021-07-23
TIDARAT
Good
- haiwei183:
  是真的吗？
88Money88
2021-07-23
88Money88
Up
BabyShark222
2021-07-23
BabyShark222
好
- TIDARAT:
  Good
- BabyShark222:
  羨慕

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Wilson在最近研报中表示，当前美股广度指标为近一个月最低，相比创下52周新高的股票数量，创52周新低的股票以更快速度增加。\n\n同时，目前位于标普50日均线上方的股票数量低于50%，虽略高于此前30%的低点，但仍处低位。这表明，部分大型成分股可能对标普指数上升做了主要贡献，而股市并没有全面上升。\n\nWilson表示，而对于成分股质量较低的指数而言，情况还要糟糕得多。\n此外，报告显示，相对于市值加权，等权重的标普500指数已经出现大幅回调，也能与市场广度指标恶化得出相同结论。\n\n周期性和防御性股票也出现分化，市场愈发开始由前者向后者转换。Wilson称，这表明美股正进入一个更加脆弱的时期。\n\n此外，市盈率方面，Wilson指出，在周期中期过渡期间，远期市盈率通常会下降20%；而到当前市盈率只下降了5%，远期收益却上涨了近20%。因此目前为止，标普500指数上涨了约15%。\nWilson认为，种种迹象表明，美股当前面临重大调整风险，“市盈率应该会在未来几个月开始大幅下跌，使标普指数更接近我们的年终目标位3900点”，这将意味着10%的下跌空间。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":175741447,"gmtCreate":1627050514689,"gmtModify":1703483383620,"author":{"id":"3578895363297107","authorId":"3578895363297107","name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175741447","repostId":2153602247,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5315255,"gmtCreate":1627100043173,"gmtModify":1663231419435,"authorId":3572683426659077,"author":{"id":3572683426659077,"authorId":3572683426659077,"name":"haiwei183","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1cae291bddff5a30eeb96060074d8531","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":175741447,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"是真的吗？","text":"是真的吗？","html":"是真的吗？"}],"langContent":"EN"},{"id":175611428,"gmtCreate":1627028262264,"gmtModify":1703482739719,"author":{"id":"3577573137638375","authorId":"3577573137638375","name":"88Money88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce1bb7384d5d5441b25cc67c7f99381e","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175611428","repostId":2153602247,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":175610047,"gmtCreate":1627028131789,"gmtModify":1703482734196,"author":{"id":"3571552996196002","authorId":"3571552996196002","name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/175610047","repostId":2153602247,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":5308309,"gmtCreate":1627050540089,"gmtModify":1663231391138,"authorId":3578895363297107,"author":{"id":3578895363297107,"authorId":3578895363297107,"name":"TIDARAT","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70741f8f742a273f9c4a9f268fca7aa3","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":175610047,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"Good","text":"Good","html":"Good"},{"id":5303510,"gmtCreate":1627028155157,"gmtModify":1663231367950,"authorId":3571552996196002,"author":{"id":3571552996196002,"authorId":3571552996196002,"name":"BabyShark222","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":175610047,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"羨慕","text":"羨慕","html":"羨慕"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":41,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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